Whistle on the Baseline:

Watch the Dome Collapse!

2010-12-12T10:36:00.001-08:00

Watch the Metrodome collapse from heavy snow. . .

The Race For the Heisman is Over

2010-10-04T12:54:00.001-07:00

Over. Fin. The End. "That's all Folks!"

The Race for the Heisman Trophy was decided this weekend. Denard Robinson sewed it up nice and good, and it's all over except for the faux anticipation and deciding which two players should sit next to Robinson in New York. (One assumes that 'Bama's Mark Ingram will be called back to NYC.)

One might seriously question calling the race at this point; such an argument would be legitimate. But, barring injury, it's going to be wrong.

On Saturday, Robinson led his 5-0 Wolverines on a game winning drive over 73 yards in a mere 1:08. He accounted for every one of Michigan's yards on the drive, completing his only pass for 42 yards and running for the other 31. This was on the road. Against a Big Eleven opponent.

Moreover, this wasn't his first such drive of the year. At arch rival Notre Dame earlier this season, "Shoelaces" (so-called because he doesn't tie them, even when he plays) led the Maize and Blue on a 72 yard drive, again accounting for every inch of yardage that the Wolverines needed for victory. In that game, Robinson completed 5 of 6 passes for 63 yards and scampered into the endzone with the game winning TD with 0:27 on the clock.

Two game winning TD drives. On the Road. In Five Games. Not bad. Yet, his stats are even more impressive than his clutch play.

As a runner, Robinson has been unstoppable. He leads the nation (read again if you didn't get it the first time) with 905 rushing yards and 9 Touchdowns. He already has scoring runs of 87 and 72 yards and he's averaging over 9 yards per carry.

Further, if it's possible, he's been even better as a passer than a runner. He has completed 70% of his passes for 1008 yards, 7 TDs and only 1 INT. This isn't a Gino Torretta offense either; Robinson is averaging 10.5 yards per attempt. Oh, he is also third in the country with a passer rating of 180.0.

Put together, Robinson has accounted for over 1900 yards of offense by himself. That's more than 81 TEAM'S in D-1A (67%).

Of course, there is still 1/2 a season to play and as Michigan's competition gets stiffer, the numbers won't be as gaudy. But, it must be remembered that all of Robinson's competition for the sport's most prized trophy will also be playing conference foes the rest of the way. Moreover, nothing to this point in Robinson's game has showed signs that he will soon be slowing down.

The only sad thing is that Robinson's numbers could be even better. After all, his stats were only so-so (by his standards) against Bowling Green. He was 4/4 for 60 yards passing, and had 5 carries for 129 yards and 2 Touchdowns. In the games FIRST NINE MINUTES. Then he got hurt and had to leave the game. He was on pace to gain 1260 yards by himself. And I don't doubt he could've almost gotten there, considering Michigan totaled about 300 yards in his absence.

Feel free to doubt my conclusion now. But when he strikes "the pose" in New York City this December, don't say I didn't call it.

Edited to Add: Robinson is the first player in NCAA history to have two games in one season in which he passed for over 200 yards and rushed for 200 yards.

Official 2010 Football Predictions

2010-09-02T10:36:00.001-07:00

AFC Championship: Steelers 23, Colts 21

The Steelers are coming off of a 9-7 season that was played without Troy Polamalu. This season they return without their starting QB, Big "Medium-Sized" Ben Roethlisberger, for the first handful of games. They also return Antwan Randle-El to the team after a brief stint in Washington. He will join Hines Ward and Mike Wallace to form a solid receiving corps. Rashard Mendenhall was much better than expected last year and should provide the perfect run/pass balance that Steelers fans have come to expect. On the opposite side of the ball the vaunted 3-4 will be back in full effect with pro-bowlers featured in both the 3 and the 4. With the return of Polamalu, the Steelers have essentially the exact same defense as they did in 2008, which gave them the #1 ranking. I expect the Steelers to go 1-3 before Roethlisberger returns to lead them on a 9-3 flurry to close the season and his fresh legs and rested arm drag them to Dallas.

The Colts are a machine, with Payton Manning running the show and the emergence of Pierre Garcon, I expect their offense to operate as efficiently as it did last year. On defense they should be Super Bowl-caliber again, with no major off-season departures. Only the enevitable decline of Reggie Wayne and a bit of an uncertainty in the offensive line prevents this team from returning to the Super Bowl.

NFC Championship: Falcons 28, Packers 13

This is the year that Aaron Rodgers finally puts it all together. The Packers figure to field one of the league's most explosive offenses this season, thanks to Rodgers, talented receivers and coach Mike McCarthy's ability to push the envelope, exploit matchups and usually run a step ahead of opponents. On defense I see this unit gelling together to really become a force in the NFC North. With their ability to stop the run, and teams like the Bears, Lions and Vikings entering the season with significant questions at receiver, I see the Packers defense really playing a pivotal role this year. The problem for the Pack is that their schedule isn't favorable enough for them to get home field advantage, and I don't like the prospect of them playing in Atlanta in late January.

BCS Championship: Alabama 34, Navy 7

Yes, I get that having Navy in the national championship game looks crazy. But hear me out. The Midshipmen will be favored in every game except Notre Dame. Even though Army should be much, much better, closing out with Central Michigan, Arkansas State, and Army is a fantastically favorable end to the season. If they can get past Maryland and Notre Dame ... we are looking at an undefeated Navy. Would that put them in the title game? You can be sure that John McCain and Rodger Staubach will do everything in their power to make sure that a few computers don't prevent a service academy from playing for the title. Last year there were losses to Hawaii and Temple that should’ve been layups. Two years ago there was a loss to the FCS’s Delaware, in 2004 there was a clunker against Tulane, and in 2003 it was Delaware. This year, the team is so much better that there is really no team they should lose to.

As for Alabama, the offense will be unstoppable from start to finish, Mark Ingram will rush for 1,200 yards, Trent Richardson will rush for more than 1,000 yards, Greg McElroy will become Alabama's first 3,000-yard passer, and Julio Jones will smash Alabama's single-season record for catches. I understand that the non-conference schedule includes a difficult challenge—a September 11th home date with Penn State, plus Florida and travels to Tennessee and LSU in back-to-back games. But the Crimson Tide’s did more than re-load when it pulled in a recruiting class that is one of the best in the nation, highlighted by defensive back commitments Keenan Allen and DeMarcus Milliner.

SuperBowl XLV: Falcons 14, Steelers 3

The division that Atlanta is faced with this year shouldn't be all that difficult to finish in the top half of. The Falcons went 11-5 in 2008 and while they took a step back last year, with Michael Turner injured, they still finished with a respectable 9-7 record. QB Matt Ryan should have a huge year, and with Turner back, expect to see the Falcons offense firing on all cylinders. All signs point to DE John Abraham having a huge bounce back campaign after a down season last year. Between his new offseason workouts and training regimen, he should look more like he did in 2008 than he did in 2009. That will make a monumental difference up front. Although on paper the Falcons look to have a tough early schedule, Pittsburgh will be without Big Ben, and Philly no longer has McNabb. It is after the Week 8 bye that Atlanta really needs to make its move, as three home games accompany road games against St. Louis, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Seattle. Expect this team to ride an 8 game win streak into the playoffs and with the best record in the NFC expect them to have home field throughout.

Honorable Mention: Minnesota Vikings 8-8, Brett Favre throws 30 interceptions

Three books about education reform

2010-08-31T17:35:00.000-07:00

This past weekend my mom sends me an e-mail with a link to this article:http://tinyurl.com/2fhbo89, and the comment, "Did you see this?"

Now, I have to start this post by saying I love my mom. I really do. She is great. But, I often worry that either a) she does not really understand what her son does; b) she has started to "lose it" as she gets on in her years; or, most likely, c) as my older brother would say, "she's just tryin' to start stuff."

The article, from the Washington Post and called "Three books about education" basically tries to paint President Obama's education reform agenda as a power-grab disguised as part of a stimulus package. This, of course, is true. Everyone knows this. I don't get why she's actin' surprised. Second, she claims that Obama's Race to the Top winners are those that are willing to adopt the most radical of reform packages. She claims that the states that won the competition are those that are willing to "privatize education, pick on the poor teachers, and tear-down the beacon of American hopes and dreams: the neighborhood school" (my translation).

Finally, she shares three books that SHE thinks we should look to when engaging in the national discussion on education reform.

I laughed. Then I cried a little bit. Then I sent my mom the following e-mail:

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Daniel

Sent: Tuesday, August 31, 2010 7:33 PM

To: karen.smith@

Subject: RE: A washingtonpost.com article from: karen.smith@

Hi Mom!

Thanks for sending this along. I hadn't seen it, but given it's union/higher ed slant I'm not surprised that it hasn't made its way around the Teach For America network. :)

I think Ravitch makes some decent points, but they are supported by such strong union buffs that it's hard for me to give it much credence. Linda Darling-Hammond, of course, is one of the single biggest adversaries of Teach For America and has been for a long time. I don't give her much credence. Here are the two things I know about LDH:

1. About 10 years ago she released a crack-pot study done on Teach For America that used sample sizes as small as 2 or 3 corps members, was never peer-reviewed before being published, and conflated the difference between teacher certification and teacher experience. The Education Journal Education Next did a survey of the studies about TFA. In terms of quality LDH's study received a "C": http://www.teachforamerica.org/about/research.htm#card

2. LDH and her crony friends at Stanford's School of Education believed that they could "do it better" than KIPP and Teach For America, so they started their own charter school. Like Ravitch says in her article, they did not track student achievement (as supposedly Finland does not) and didn't really hold very high expectations for their students. I'm guessing she used some of these "flat-world education strategies" written about in her book. Last year, that school was placed on the state's list of "persistently lowest-achieving schools" and was denied a 5-year extension of its charters because upon review, no one could tell that any real learning had gone on there. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/16/education/16sfcharter.html

I don't know much about Veltri, but the title of her book is both incendiary and silly. While our teachers certainly DO learn on the job, its clear that students learn from our teachers. Any good study done on TFA shows that.

In fact, The University of North Carolina recently completed a study of pathways into teaching in North Carolina. The objective was to better understand the effects on student achievement of graduates of the UNC teacher-preparation system—which is the leading provider of teachers in the state—compared with teachers from other pathways, including Teach For America. At every grade level and subject studied, Teach For America corps members did as well as or better than the traditionally prepared UNC graduates. Teach For America corps members had a greater impact on student achievement than traditionally prepared UNC graduates in middle school math and in high school math, science, and English. http://publicpolicy.unc.edu/?q=CIPP/Publications

The best argument seems to be that of Rothstein, because it's tough to argue that we don't want all of our kids getting a well-rounded education. At the same time, what good is it that our kids can sing, paint, draw, etc. if they can't decode words or do simple arithmetic? I think ALL of our kids should be exposed to a broad curriculum. Still, I want them to be able to read and write first.

I guess the most concerning thing about his book is that if you look at who writes the positive editorial reviews on the book, they're done by the former president of the country's largest teacher's union, the head of an organization that's set up to run colleges and universities of education in New England, a professor at the University of Michigan's School of Education (Susan B. Neuman), and Bella Rosenberg, a former secretary of Education but now serves as special advisor to Randi Weingarten who is the current president of the AFT. http://tinyurl.com/25jq4dh

Which, brings me back to my point that the article sounds like the typical propaganda spewed by the union and schools of education who, of course, are lovers of the status-quo (and think that the way things are are pretty good). http://tinyurl.com/qu6l9s

Diane Ravitch, of course, is a professor at a school of education. She has her own website and her curriculum vitae can be found here: www.dianeravitch.com/vita.html

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

About 30 seconds later I sent her this e-mail:

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Daniel
Sent: Tuesday, August 31, 2010 7:34 PM
To: karen.smith@
Subject: RE: A washingtonpost.com article from: karen.smith@

Ps.

We should get together for dinner soon!

Daniel

LeBron's Choice

2010-07-09T12:22:00.000-07:00

Within the past few years, some of this country’s most popular athletes have been hit with allegations of dog-fighting, sexual impropriety, sordid affairs, and at least two instances of inappropriate behavior with handguns. It isn’t hard to sympathize with those who feel like the off-the-court world of professional sports makes being a fan nearly impossible.

So it should have come to as a pleasant surprise to even casual sports fans to learn that a superstar player decided to take less money and sacrifice individual glory in an attempt to win a championship, and that in announcing his decision to pursue this goal he created a special TV program that wound up generating millions of dollars he donated to the Boys & Girls Club.

Yet in doing so, LeBron James’s approval rating may have sunk 61%. Sadly, its quite clear that James was doomed all along. If he stayed with the Cavaliers, he would have been criticized for not singing sooner, for putting such a strain on the city and giving himself a built-in excuse for never winning a ring. (Also, since everyone says this was the wrong way to leave, will someone please explain to me the right way to leave your hometown team as a superstar athlete?) If he went to New York or New Jersey, it meant he cared more about money than winning. And as we’ve seen, joining Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami means James is somehow taking the easy way out.

As my college track teammate used to say, "don't hate the player, hate the game." And when the game is free agency, how can we hate LeBron?

On October 7, 1969, the Cardinals traded Flood, catcher Tim McCarver, outfielder Byron Browne, and left-handed pitcher Joe Hoerner to the Philadelphia Phillies for first baseman Dick Allen, second baseman Cookie Rojas, and right-handed pitcher Jerry Johnson. However, Flood refused to report to the moribund Phillies, citing the team's poor record and the fact that they played in dilapidated Connie Mack Stadium before belligerent – and, Flood believed, racist – fans. Flood, who began his career making only $17,000 was worth over $100,000 in the open market. That fall he wrote to the commissioner and the courts saying,

"I do not feel I am a piece of property to be bought and sold irrespective of my wishes. I believe that any system which produces that result violates my basic rights as a citizen and is inconsistent with the laws of the United States and of the several States."

Commissioner Bowie Kuhn denied his request, citing the propriety of the reserve clause and its inclusion in Flood's 1969 contract. In response, Flood filed a $1 million lawsuit (which would be automatically tripled under the Sherman Act) against Kuhn and Major League Baseball on January 16, 1970, alleging that Major League Baseball had violated federal antitrust laws.

On June 19, 1972, the United States Supreme Court in Flood v. Kuhn, 407 U.S. 258, (1972) ruled that the longstanding exemption of professional baseball from the antitrust laws, Federal Baseball Club v. National League, 259 U.S. 200, (1922); Toolson v. New York Yankees, Inc., 346 U.S. 356, (1953), was an established aberration, and in light of the Court's holding that other interstate professional sports are not similarly exempt, but one in which Congress has acquiesced, and that is entitled to the benefit of stare decisis. Removal of the resultant inconsistency at this late date is a matter for legislative, not judicial, resolution.

While Curt Flood fought hard to win his free agency, it wasn't until the first day of the 105th Congress in 1997 that Rep. John Conyers, Jr. (D-Michigan) introduced Baseball Fans and Communities Protection Act of 1997;numbered HR 21 (Flood's Cardinals uniform number) which removed baseball's controversial antitrust exemption with regards to labor. [Technically baseball got free agency in 1976, although the players were still suffering under the anti-trust exception for two more decades.]

Each of the major sports in the United States, have had various levels of free agency were introduced throughout their existence. In the National Football League (NFL) in 1992, in the National Hockey League (NHL) in 1995, and the National Basketball Association (NBA) in 1996. Although players can shop their services to all teams, free agents do not necessarily take the highest salary bid; compensating differentials, such as being close to home or having a chance to win a championship, might induce a player to accept a less than maximum bid for their services.

Ask the average fan, especially today, and he or she will likely cite reasons why free-agency is a bad thing for sports. While often the fan will point to a certain player leaving their favorite club, they may also point to the fact that certain work-stoppages such as the 1994 MLB player’s strike, the lockout of the NBA players in 1998, and the lockout in the NHL after the 2004 season, all had free agency as a primary point of contention.

While these concerns are often expressed in the general media and are often arguments for artificially limiting player movement in professional labor markets, sports economists have generally found that while salaries do increase after free agency is introduced, competitive balance tends to be unaffected, and no team in U.S. professional sports has ever been bankrupted by free agency. Further, while free agency does increase the incentive for good players to leave better teams for worse teams and for players to move from small cities to large cities, it does not seem that free agency has substantially increased the movement of players across time. Finally, concerns over fan apathy are not supported in the aggregate: free agency does not reduce attendance or television viewership. The empirical evidence suggests that fears that free agency will increase player mobility, skew competitive balance, and reduce the attractiveness of the sport, relative to no-free agency, seem to be misplaced. (see Cymrot, D. J. (1983) “Migration Trends and Earnings of Free Agents in Major League Baseball, 1976-1979,” Economic Inquiry, 21(4), pp. 545-556.)

Were we in a pre-free agency period, for example in the days of Oscar Robertson a player was drafted territorily and was bound a player to a single NBA team in perpetuity. LeBron would have been committed to Cleveland forever. Not such a bad thing? What would their motivation be to put good teammates on the team? Why would they build him a new stadium? Why would they promote him at all?

Nearly every employee in America is at-will to the extent that they can leave the company they work for and choose to work for another corporation. Some employees in intellectual property-specific industries are constrained by non-compete clauses, but most of us can simply decide to go work for someone else. Not LeBron James. Because of the salary-cap structure in the NBA, LeBron will get only two or three opportunities to switch companies and negotiate his worth. Of those two or three, this is the one time that his value is probably the highest. This is probably the most important decision of LeBron James’ life, and he should get the chance to make it based on whatever set of criteria he so chooses.

As much as I feel for the people of Cleveland, they don’t automatically get to be part of the choice. It came off poorly, but I agreed with James when he said he had to make the best decision for himself. Would you stay at a job you hated for years just because you felt it wasn’t right to leave your co-workers?

Yes, I realize people will feel that this was all too "scripted." But a review of the facts suggests otherwise. No one would script a situation where they leave $150 million on the table. No one would let a "camp policy" make them look like a sore loser after being dunked on (when he simply played good help-side defense). Having Jim Grey wouldn't have been my choice for host, but apparently it was the brain-child of ESPN and Jim Grey in the first place. And who would you have chosen, Craig Sagerr? Stephen A. Smith? And how would you have done this special if you were trying to ensure that the Boys and Girls Club of America would receive the most money? Would you bring sponsors in, like State Farm and Vitamin Water? Of course you would.

Sure, he should've "scripted" a better response than using the term "South Beach" and sure, he should've "scripted" a better answer than one in which he referred to himself in the third-person, but for heavens sakes, he's not Prof. James at Cleveland State he's a freaking ballplayer. I mean if you are going to nitpick about the third person (which is as much a part of the spoken word of professional athletes as his other impediment "ax" in place of "ask" is a common impediment in the African-American community). He has no college education! And guess what, he speaks better than a whole heckuva lot of University of Wisconsin graduates.

You may be mad that he didn't pick Cleveland or whatever city you were pulling for, and you certainly might be mad at him for hiring a bad PR staff (although I think its neat that his team his all of his friends from Akron), but to lose respect for him at a time when he makes one of the toughest decisions any American employee can make? That's just jealousy. That's all.

EDITED TO ADD THIS (from Simmons):

I blame the people around him. I blame the lack of a father figure in his life. I blame us for feeding his narcissism to the point that he referred to himself in the third person five times in 45 minutes. I blame local and national writers (including myself) for apparently not doing a good enough job explaining to athletes like LeBron what sports mean to us, and how it IS a marriage, for better and worse, and that we're much more attached to these players and teams than they realize. I blame David Stern for not throwing his body in front of that show. I blame everyone.

We are already fools for caring about athletes considerably more than they care about us. We know this, and we do it anyway. We just like sports. We keep watching for moments like Donovan's goal against Algeria, and we keep caring through thick and thin for moments like Roberts' Steal and Tracy Porter's interception. We put up with all the sobering stuff because that's the price you pay -- for every Gordon Hayward half-court shot, or USA-Canada gold-medal game, there are 20 Michael Vicks and Ben Roethlisbergers.

This Week's Sign of the Apocalypse?

2010-06-28T07:51:00.000-07:00

The front page from Chciago Tribune's website, Monday morning June 28, 2010:

NCAA Gets it Right

2010-04-22T10:36:00.000-07:00

The NCAA finally did something right.

After spending the past month making it sound like a sure thing that the Men's NCAA tournament would expand to 80 or 96 teams, the NCAA has settled on a 3-team expansion of the tournament to 68 teams.

The expansion comes as part of a new $10.8 billion broadcasting deal with CBS and Turner Broadcasting.

The second most exciting development is that--for the first time in the history of the tournament--every single game will be shown live on non-satellite television. Because the TV deal includes the Turner family, every game next March will be shown live -- on CBS, TBS, TNT or truTV.

From ESPN:

Next year, everything through the second round will be shown nationally on the four networks. CBS and Turner will split coverage of the regional semifinal games, while CBS will retain sole coverage of the regional finals, the Final Four and the championship game through 2015.

Read more at: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=5125307

Facebook Pwnage

2010-02-23T13:34:00.001-08:00

This is what happens when a tea party/libertarian/"crash my plane into the IRS"/nOOb tries to engage in a discussion without quoting from Glenn Beck:

Sometimes I Feel Like an Idiot

2010-02-11T15:21:00.000-08:00

On Dec. 2, if I would have had $100 and deposited it in an online casino and done only two things:

1) Every time Wisconsin plays, bet the under ($20 straight wager)

2) Everytime Villanova plays, bet the over ($20 straight wager)

My account would be account would be at... $472.68

Villanova:
Wisconsin:

Sandstorm'd 'em

2010-01-27T07:33:00.000-08:00

The first place I check to get an instant read on what just happened in the world of college basketball is the Bracketology 101 blog. Their Tuesday tweet was spot on:

It's rare that John Wall is the second-most exciting player on a basketball court, but on Tuesday night it was Devan Downey who was sending sportswriters scrambling for a thesaurus. Downey hit acrobatic shot after acrobatic shot and was basically a one-man offense for South Carolina in the Gamecocks' stunning 68-62 upset of the top-ranked Wildcats in Columbia. As far as the bracket goes, this game had very minimal impact (South Carolina picked up a ginorous win for its otherwise weak resume and Kentucky lost its two-day hold on the top overall seed), but for entertainment purposes only, games don't get much better than this. Wall and DeMarcus Cousins deserve a lot of credit for keeping Kentucky close in what was a raucous Colonial Center, but in the end this was the Gamecocks' night. Or should we say Downey's night. What a performance.

You certainly have a very defensible argument if you want to give the game ball to Devan Downey. In fact, up until the :43 mark in the 2nd half, he would have been my choice also. Then something amazing happened. Let me properly set the stage.

With two minutes to go, South Carolina clung to a 4-point lead and phenom, and likely #1 overall pick, John Wall went into "there is no 'effing' way I am going to lose this game" mode. First he went straight at the basket, daring anyone to foul him, and got the deuce. Then the next time down he drew a foul and made 2 free throws. Then he comes down the court, misses a trey, but gets ready to get the dish off of an offensive rebound when Coach Calipari calls time-out at the :43 second mark. The momentum in the game is very quickly shifting back to Kentucky and the student section at Colonial Life desperately needed to to remain amped for the final minute.

So what does the PA-guy do? He goes Sandstorm on it. But he doesn't just play the song, he plays it so loud that the volume on my TV went down because the ESPN crew had to reduce the feed from their microphones. As the TV camera panned to the Kentucky time-out you could see Calipari literally screaming at his players, trying to be heard over the audio sandstorm. After the 60-second time-out the referees realize that the shot clock was improperly reset, so they confer at the monitors to determine how much time remains. The entire time this delay is taking place, for several minutes, Sandstorm continues to blast at FULL VOLUME. The crowd does not let up. And Calipari does not get a bit of extra time without music to address his players.

With the crowd in Downey/Darude-induced fandemonium John Wall misses a free throw, and the Gamecocks grab the game-sealing rebound. There is hardly anyone born in the 80s who has never heard Sandstorm or hasn't felt that initial excitement (or dread) over the overly recognizable first few notes. While some take their sandstroming to the extreme, it is such a cultural phenomenon that there are Facebook groups devoted to its legitimacy. But never have I been witness to the affect it could have on a basketball game.

So for me, the game ball goes to the PA-guy. And the Gamecock student section. Because,

[a]fter a month filled with mediocre and questionable court stormings, the rowdy South Carolina student section reminded us how it's supposed to be done on Tuesday night. They pulled off a near-perfect rush: we loved Downey waving the fans down to the court in the closing seconds, we loved South Carolina ignoring the SEC's ridiculous $25,000 court rush fine, and we especially loved the ridiculously fast court coverage which came from both ends of the floor. That's how it's done, Gamecock Nation. Excellent work.

Excellent work indeed.

Toss Up! Tiger v. Jack

2009-12-16T12:21:00.000-08:00

Let the debate begin. . . Who had the better decade of championship golf?

Incredibly, Jack had five years that he never finished out of the top 10 in a single major. In the decade, he never finished worse than T5 in the British Open. And he never finished out of the top 10 in the Masters. WHAT!?! He finished out of the top 15 only 3 times in the decade.

Tiger, of course, won 12 majors, and completed the Tiger Slam by holding all four trophies (or, 3 trophies and one jacket) at the same time. He set the scoring record for three of the majors (he already held the record for the fourth). He was also an equal opportunity showman, winning each tournament 3 times. Moreover, he finished in the top-2 in the world's hardest tournament, the U.S. Open, 5 times. He also finished in the top 6 at the Masters 8 times

Racing in Circles: Minnesota’s Can’t-Win Ploy

2009-11-18T09:05:00.000-08:00

In a November 8 article in the Star Tribune, author Emily Johns writes,

Minnesota educators think the state has a good chance to receive a chunk of some $4.35 billion in grants that the Obama administration plans to give to states to promote school innovation.

Wait. What? Our educators think we have a good chance? They must be reading a different version of the administrations “Race to the Top” language than I am.

Through this new competitive program called Race to the Top, the US Department of Education has set aside more than $4 billion from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 for education. But Secretary of Education Arne Duncan has made it clear that not everyone is going to get a share of that $4 billion. In fact, that’s the whole idea. Only states that take a bold stand and make true educational reforms are going to get any money at all.

The only reforms that Minnesota has made since the government dangled this money in front of us (which we now know is somewhere between $60-175 million), is we’ve reformed the way we love ourselves: we now think we’re better than ever, despite making almost no changes at all!

Minnesota is convinced that we do a pretty good job at educating our kids. That’s true – if you’re white, middle-class, and attend a suburban school district. Where we fall short is in so many other categories: minority students, students from low-income communities, students receiving special education supports… the list goes on. In fact, Minnesota has the second biggest academic achievement gap in the country (more on this in future posts).

And we think the government is going to reward us for that??

Secretary Duncan is asking states to be bold. To “think big and push hard on the kinds of reforms that we know will create fundamental change…” Minnesota, however, is planning on submitting an application that simply highlights what we’ve always done (things like the governors “Q Comp” program, in which more than 95% of teachers in this state were considered worthy of a performance-based incentive, or our standards that have been in place for years, or our strong charter school laws). Sure, all those things are great (perhaps with the exception of the “Q Comp” program – are you telling me that we have this many great teachers, and still our black kids do worse in Minnesota than black kids do in Alabama?), but they aren’t the types of changes the administration is talking about.

In fact, they aren’t changes at all. As Dan Weisberg, VP of policy and general counsel for The New Teacher Project, says, “The big picture is that Minnesota has a good story to tell in many areas about the efforts it’s made thus far on education reform.” Really? I must have missed something.

Mr. Wesiberg’s organization actually released a report in August that showed several glaring deficiencies in Minnesota’s reform movement, most notably in the way that we produce, retain, and evaluate great teachers and leaders. The US Chamber backed those findings up with a Report Card that gave Minnesota an “F” on the scale of alternative hiring, giving the state a “C” overall for staff hiring and evaluation. In fact, the report card, which was designed to measure state’s strengths on education innovation and reform, gave Minnesota mostly “B’s” and “C’s,” not the “all A’s” report that so many in the state think is our due.

It’s time for our state leaders to actually get some political courage and “make the tough choices that are right for kids” as Duncan said in a speech at the 2009 Governors Education Symposium. If Minnesota wants any piece of this $4 billion pie, we need to agree that our state needs a TRUE alternative route to teacher certification, and new ways to evaluate the teachers who are already in the classroom.

The state teacher's union, Education Minnesota would love for us to continue patting ourselves on the back and saying how great we already are (they benefit from sticking with the status quo). That, however, won’t get us any money through the “Race to the Top” fund, and it certainly won’t help our students who are on the wrong side of the achievement gap, falling further behind every day.

Google Suggest ...

2009-11-03T11:04:00.000-08:00

Breeder's Cup analysis coming soon ...

Objects in your mirror ... (Part II)

2009-10-22T08:39:00.001-07:00

So, a new poll from Rutgers has Daggett at 20%! This is a very crucial number. Why?

In 1998 in the Minnesota Gubernatorial race, a poll on October 20 showed Humphrey leading 35% to Coleman 34% and up-start former wrestler and independant candidate Jesse Ventura at 21%. In only two weeks, Ventura expanded that 21% to 37% which was enough to win the three-way race.

But can Daggett close the gap? Its possible. Here's how:

1) The fat guy needs to continue to implode under the weight of the worst run campaign in New Jersey history.

2) Corzine's saturation of the airwaves actually turns off voters and drives them to either (a) stay home or (b) vote for someone else (presumably Daggett)

3) As more people learn about Daggett's tax positions more people like him, and there are still those who intend to vote who are not entirely familiar with him. When people know about his plans, they generally like them.

The key will be the first poll around Halloween. If Daggett can get his numbers close to 26 or 27% I think he wins. It should be a fun two weeks!

Objects in your mirror ...

2009-10-16T06:03:00.000-07:00

The next governor of New Jersey?

2009-10-15T06:19:00.001-07:00

Fat people.

I think its an incredible classic when a fat guy starts arguing about low-taxes, personal responsibility, blah blah blah. Not only has this guy not missed a meal in his life, but its quite obvious he hasn't figured out how to work a treadmill and additionally never bothers to mix in a salad at lunch.

Now, do you really want a governor who has no idea how to work a treadmill?

I included a manual to show you how easy it is to figure it out. So how dumb is this guy? Get on. Turn on. Start running. Oh, and try not to eat a Big Mac while you are running.

But if he can't figure out how to work a treadmill, then how can he balance a budget or deal with the jobs crisis, or fix the schools (or successfully siphon monies to his Goldman Sachs cronies)? I would say that he cannot.

Next, what's his issue with vegetables? I realize that New Jersey, especially the part that is moments away from being annexed by New York is not a venerable Mesopotamia, but there is a significant portion of the state who actually do appreciate local farming.

If the fat guy above is elected, there is no chance that any portion of the New Jersey state website would actually be dedicated to vegetables, because it is quite clear from the photo above, that this guy hates veggies and detests wasting space in his cavernous stomach for anything but local meat.

So when you go to the polls next month, while the fat guy is wiping his Bar-B-Que-sauce-covered hands on the ballot and voting for himself, and Governor Corzine is being dropped off by his chauffeur at the polling station to vote for himself, do yourself a favor, and vote for Chris Daggett. It's time to reject the status quo ... and fat people.

Barack Obama: HE Kept America Safe

2009-09-11T06:22:00.001-07:00

It's official. President Barack Hussein Obama has "Kept America Safe" for a greater part of his presidency than any other 21st century American President.

George W. Bush wants you to believe that HE kept America safe (see headline).

But we all know that's not the truth. Compared to Obama, Bush did a terrible job of keeping America Safe:

As a result, Obama has proved Joe Scarborough and 50% of Americans wrong.

For those of you who disagree, I have one thing to say:

Presious Passion

2009-07-20T18:07:00.000-07:00

So, if I know my horse is the exact opposite of Silky Sullivan, I instruct my jockey to take him to the lead right away ...

But my jockey may not listen ... so in his next race, I make it clear, I want him sent from the opening bell ...

Still my point isn't quite understood, so for his next race I demand my horse run clear of the field ...

Finally, before his last race I scream at the jock, "BEAT HIM OUT OF THE GATE!"

See how easy that was?

Derby Pick, 2009

2009-04-30T14:03:00.000-07:00

History:

2000, Fusaichi Pegasus, Win, $6.60
2001, Monarchos, Win, $23.00
2002, Medaglia D’Oro, 4th
2003, Empire Maker, 2nd
2004, Smarty Jones, Win, $10.20
2005, Bellamy Road, 7th
2006, Sweetnorthernsaint, 7th
2007, Street Sense, Win, $11.80, Total Profit: $390.90 (1 exacta, 3 trifectas)
2008, Big Brown, Win, $6.80, Total Profit: $1,754.00 (9 exactas, 1 trifecta)

This is the third Derby write-up I have had to do knowing that my grandfather will never read it. Having him call and congratulate me after picking Monarchos was one of the happiest moments of my life. I didn’t get to spend a lot of time handicapping or going to races with him since I grew up in Minnesota and he lived in California, but I have so many memories of us together at Canterbury or Santa Anita. As always, this is for you Poppa Bob.

Between 1930 and 1997 no horse with a Dosage Index of greater than 4.00 won the Kentucky Derby. For 67 years horseplayers had a hard and fast rule by which they could begin to eliminate Derby contenders. But in 1998, Real Quiet, as leg weary as he was, crossed the line first in the Derby, prompting his trainer Bob Baffert to say, “Where are those Dosage boys now?”
Something else changed the face of Derby handicapping the next year: the speed figure. Sent off at 31-1 Charismatic stormed home, blowing the toteboard to Baltimore, and in the process proving the importance of speed figures in the Derby. Never again would the horse with the best speed last out go off at such a high price … or so I thought.
Then in 2000, the public broke a trend that had stood for 21 years; when Fusaichi Pegasus paid $6.60 to win he became the first favorite to do so since Spectacular Bid. The public has used speed figures to become better handicappers: The favorite not only came home first in 2000, but also in 2004, 2007 and 2008.
Even those favorites had to overcome serious hurdles. In 2004, Smarty Jones became the first undefeated Derby winner since Seattle Slew in 1977. In 2007, Street Sense became the first Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Champion to ever capture the roses. And in 2008, Big Brown became the first Derby winner to come off only three career starts in 93 years. Oh, and let’s not forget Barbaro winning off of five weeks rest for the first time since Needles 50 years prior.
So in the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby, the current renewal having been described by noted columnist Steve Haskin as “Without a doubt the most difficult Derby I have ever tried to figure out,” are there any rules which we can rely upon?

Since 1998 (or before) …

1. Every winner has finished in the money or within 3 lengths of the winner in their final prep.

(20) Flying Private: It wouldn’t be a Derby unless D. Wayne Lukas had his token starter. 2002 was the last time he had a legitimate entry, and while this one does have some speed and at least one good race, there is no reason to expect the type of forward move that would get him into the mix here.

(19) Atomic Rain: One of two in here that are sent forth by the Hall/Breeen connections, and this one is decidedly the lesser of the two. Obviously a nice move forward in last but everyone moved forward in that one and you’d need to go back to the Remsen back in November to find a good race. Still, some to like about this one … 4 races at 1 1/8 miles, excuses in most of them, and a very nice work on the 28th. Personally doubt he moves up too much off of his Remsen speed figure and that won’t be good enough here. One to watch in the Belmont.

(18) Mine That Bird: A monster in Canada as a juvenile, dominated all-comers and relished the synth. Unfortunately he was never very fast and ran wide and finished last when coming south for the BC juvenile. Truly no improvement at age 3, as he had two slow efforts in New Mexico on dirt, losing to horses that were only mediocre. Nice story that he was a $10,000 auction purchase and has returned $374k to his owners, but with connections that have only won one race in all of 2009, I am looking else ware.

(17) Nowhere to Hide: Distinction of being the horse that drew in when Canterbury’s own Win Willy scratched, and there was good reason this one was outside looking in. No excuse in last three races verses foes that are in here and has only a maiden win to his credit. Must respect that Zito trains but slow times and a history of hanging gives me no reason to expect anything different on Saturday.

(16) Join in the Dance: The clear pace in here and drawing inside Regal Ransom and I Want Revenge means “go.” No wins above five and a half furlongs and that was only done with the help of a race originally carded for turf. On the plus side it is Pletcher and he will have the rail and “catch me if you can” has worked in the Derby before. But his top Beyer of 90 makes that unlikely. Not impressed.

2. Every winner recorded a Beyer speed figure of at least 86 in their last winning effort prior to the Derby (if recorded).

(15) Summer Bird: A wonderful move forward in his last and was very rapidsly gaining on Papa Clem in Arkansas. No races at two and tending to fall way back can’t help as well as the slow work on April 24th do little to inspire confidence in another big leap. Is improving at the right time, and this April foal has license to get better but my sense is too much too soon. Look for him this summer.

(14) West Side Bernie: One of several who showed dramatic improvement in the Wood. He finished second to I Want Revenge but was never going to catch him. He has the benefit of a graded win at two, a group of solid, if not good, races where he got checks in graded stakes at 3, and a spot in the Derby superfecta wouldn’t baffle me, but one of a bunch who will be running late, and hard to imagine the one hole won’t put him behind a wall of horses.

3. No winner has ever entered the Derby having never been the favorite in any previous race.

(13) Papa Clem: My twitter feed indicates that he just worked three furlongs this morning, which does little to satisfy my issues after the slow 7f work on the 25th. Solid score in Arkansas Derby and clearly prefers dirt, which is a huge advantage over many in here. Loss to Fresian Fire was in the slop at the Fair Grounds and loss to Pioneerof was on the synth in California, so those do nothing to suggest he doesn’t fit here. My problem is he looked all out to get by Old Fashioned and has improved so much since 2 that another forward move here seems highly unlikely, and that is probably needed to win here.

(12) Mr. Hot Stuff: One of 3 WinStar runners and this one gets Valezquez. Will be absolutely flying late and if he can get a clean trip, which is doubtful, he can certainly hit the board. His maiden win was simply amazing and a pace analysis of that indicates he could run under two minutes for 10 panels with a perfect trip. Out of Tiznow (the only two-time BC Classic winner), he is bred to run farther, and if he gets a pace to run at he could be dangerous. However, the lack of dirt races and the fact that he didn’t win at two give me a reason to pass here.

4. Every winner has won on dirt prior to the Derby

(11) Advice: Probably the slowest horse in the field and needed a miracle ride by top jock Gomez to punch his ticket with Lexington win at 16-1. Gomez departs and so does the synthetic surface he prefers. His lone dirt try resulted in a 77 Beyer and that was with blinkers. Pluses include Pletcher and a nice 4f work on the 27th but that only indicates to me that this horse is better suited for the fake stuff. Not today.

(10) Hold Me Back: Two solid races in Kentucky in which he recorded nice figures for synthetic. Sire was a gutsy Tiznow away from BC Classic over the surface and distance, so he should get 10 furlongs, and Desormeaux has been here before (’08, ’00, ’98). Not sure what excuse he had for finishing 14 lengths back in a drubbing his only dirt race, but Mott has him here because he fits, and tossing this one isn’t easy. Our first of several synthetic conundrums.

(9) Chocolate Candy: Without question the best bred horse in the race and a 5 furlong work that does nothing but confirm the breeding for me. Has done everything asked and lost by only a length when compromised by a slow pace in the Santa Anita Derby, 3rd dam was dam to Affirmed, she was bred back to arch-foe Alydarm and then that offspring was bred to Seattle Slew. Which brings us to his dam, who was bred to Candy Ride, responsible for winning the greatest Pacific Classic ever easily handling 10f and finishing in under 2:00. I have no doubts he can get the trip and should love both the distance and the faster fractions of the Derby. His Beyers are slow, but that could be a product of the synth, and looking at his pace figures he looks a lot better. He is one that I would say you must use in all exoctics.

(8) Pioneerof the Nile: I am writing his profile first this year, and for good reason. He is this year’s quintessential poster child of everything that’s difficult about handicapping in the synthetic era. Was this Derby being contested in the mid-1990s, we would see an entirely different tote board on Saturday. Having swept the major California preps and vanquished such also-rans as Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy, Mr. Hot Stuff, and likely favorite I Want Revenge, the Bob Baffert-trained Pioneerof would come into the Derby as a heavy favorite, possibly close to even money. Instead, he will enter the Derby with a 4-1 ML and might go off as the fourth wagering option. Why? Because he has never raced over traditional dirt, instead winning the type of slow, quirky races that synthetic surfaces produce. Visually his turn of foot is devastating, but it’s the kind of move that is better suited to turf racing, and many would argue that his pedigree is oriented to grass racing. He, more than any other horse in the race, is the defining key to wagering success on Saturday. Either you believe he will move forward in speed when he hits dirt and are rewarded at the mutual windows, or you believe that he isn’t fast enough to compete with these and look else ware for value. Your opinion of him most likely defines your opinion of the entire race. Personally, I think he is a turf horse who is going to face a rude awakening when he discovers what real pace is all about. But since the Baffert-Gomez combination wins nearly 50% of their races and hit the board a whopping 88% of the time, it’s also very likely I will be proven wrong. Lastly, referencing a point I made during the introduction, Baffert horses should never be ignored. In 2002, I successfully talked my father out of betting on War Emblem at 23-1. He thanks me for my prescience regularly.

5. No winner ever finished worse than 4th in either of his last two prep races.

(7) General Quarters: The feel-good story of the Derby; a former high school principal took out a trainer’s license and claimed a horse for $20,000. That horse has gone on to win $641,000, captures the Bluegrass Stakes, and is now in the Derby. He is the only horse in owner/trainer Thomas McCarthy’s stable. He did run fast enough to win in Tampa and has a win over the Churchill strip so those questions are answered. Issues do arise however, when you look at his history of coming up short and following big efforts with clunkers. Leparoux is solid, and he is only one of three G1 winners in the field, but aside from synth score and Tampa win, there is little to like here and besides, 7 horse exacta boxes are way too expensive.

6. No winner has ever gone on to win after dropping more than 9 Beyer points in his last two starts

(6) I Want Revenge: Bring out the sharp knives because the cuts get much tougher here. Dominating score on the inner dirt in New York looks even more impressive when the third place finisher in that one went on to absolutely crush in the Withers. Breathtaking win in the Wood completed the dirt transition, as he also escaped Pioneerof by heading east. His four furlong workout on April 28th has everyone buzzing and he will be the betting favorite. My history of picking the favorite (FuPeg, Empire, Smarty, Bellamy Road, etc.) and his top figure make me question why I would hesitate to go this direction, but I will make my case: Horses often draw off to win by large margins and with big numbers on the Aqueduct inner dirt track and then fail to replicate those feats later. Furthermore, the Wood numbers are hard to believe since everyone moved forward in that race. He looked out of his league vs. Pioneerof and Papa Clem in California and even if you excuse that in the case of the synthm then must you also believe Pioneerof is worth too? Will have both Dunkirk and Pioneerof on his shoulder and the Churchill homestretch will not be as helpful as the Aqueduct inner dirt. At 3-1 in a twenty horse field I’ll look elseware.

7. Every winner (since 1882) has raced at age two.

(5) Dunkirk: 108 Beyer. $3.7 million yearling. Kentucky Oaks-winning dam. A mile and an eighth in a mind-blowing sub-1:48. This little guy, and he is very small, has everything you’d want to see as a Derby horse. And yet lacks the one thing that has been required since 1882: a start as a juvenile. Over 100 horses have tried to win the Derby without starting at two. Since 1953, only six have even hit the board. A perfect race would mean sitting outside I Want Revenge and whatever two or three horses are contesting the lead, moving forward on the turn, and then taking over mid-stretch. Perfect races only happen in the Derby once every hundred years, and unfortunately, Mike Smith and Giacomo used that up. He is certainly fast enough, will likely get the needed pace, and so it’s a matter of whether he can find room. Gomez went to Pioneerof, so I guess if you bet this horse your fate lies with Prado. Your call.

8. Every winner has raced in North America at age three.

(4) Regal Ransom/(3) Desert Party: These two traded races in the desert with Desert Party winning the first two and Regal Ransom taking the third. The pair were quality horses before they left, with Desert Party winning the Sanford on a sealed muddy track and ‘Ransom winning a maiden at Saratoga with a blistering 93 speed figure. Ransom is bred to be a miler, but Distorted Humors have proven they can go long (see: Funny Cide). Desert Party is bred to easily get the Derby distance and he was within two pounds of being weighted high enough to be a Dual Qualifier. But we are left not knowing what they have done since they left America last fall, and have no reason they had any type of real competition this year. The magic of You Tube gives us the chance to view their races, and they both look very good. I am especially excited by their impressive five furlong br3eezes on the 25th. Based on the results of the UAE Derby and Alan Garcia’s decision to stick with Regal Ransom, I am sure that he will be firing from the start planning to rate off of only Join in the Dance. If the fractions are slow, expect Regal Ransom to be right there at the end, giving the Sheiks their best finish ever. If the fractions are fast, which they certainly might be based on the draw, expect Desert Party to utilize a similar trip that Big Brown took last year, loping along on the outside of the pack before rallying home in the lane. Of all the horses that have come from Dubai, these two are the most seasoned and the best prepared to take the roses. Neither is as talented as Worldly Manner or Street Cry, but they are considerably better prepared, and I am truly expecting that one of them ends up in the exacta.

9. Every winner has prepped at 9 furlongs; No winner has won after a 7 week layoff

(2) Fresian Fire: Depending on your viewpoint the Derby has been either very kind or very unkind to Larry Jones. He has only ever had two Derby starters. Both finished second. In 2007, he saddled Hard Spun, who worked in :57 and change a week before taking the Derby field on a ride that was only ended when Calvin Borel somehow found a seam on the rail and got eventual winner Street Sense to the front. Then last year Jones sent the talented filly Eight Belles to the post against the boys. She more than accounted for herself, dispatching 18 others before failing to catch Big Brown. Unfortunately she shattered both ankles during the stretch drive and had to be destroyed. This took a massive toll on Larry Jones and he announced that 2009 would be his last year as a trainer. Fresian Fire is his current charge and he brings that horse into the Derby this year after a 7 week layoff, something that has never been successful before. He also worked ‘Fire in :57 and change, a time similar to that of Hard Spun, but a time that is being questioned by the clockers as too fast. Did the horse waste too much of himself in that work? Will he be rank for the Derby? These are the types of questions Jones has been facing all week. Furthermore by stopping on ‘Fire after the Louisiana Derby, Jones ensured that his colt would never have a race longer than a mile and a sixteenth, which means that he will attempt to win a race 3/16 of a mile longer than he has ever run. ‘Fire has never run particularly fast, and his one big race, in which he received a Beyer of 104 and defeated Papa Clem, was done over a wet track. The fact that he worked in :57, that they chose post 6, and that it could be sloppy on Saturday mean it is very likely this guy will be amongst the leaders as they hit the clubhouse turn. A son of A.P. Indy he should have no problems getting the mile and a quarter if he is in good enough shape. Without a race in 7 weeks that is the question. Bottom line is this: he will be there at the top of the stretch, a place where nearly every Derby winner originates. A logical top choice, but I am making him my number two.

The Pick

(1) Musket Man: The only horse to survive all 9 rules, Musket Man has done everything right on his way to the Derby. He won at first asking as a juvy, scoring over a competitive maiden field at Belmont, and then took home an allowance race in Philly three weeks later. He was then sent down to Florida where he took two of the three big Tampa stakes for three year olds and impressively caught Join in the Dance at the wire in the Tampa Bay Derby. The lost to General Quarters is his only blemish and ‘Quarters ran out of his mind that day. Obviously his detractors will point to the sire and say that Yonaguska can never get a Derby winner but there are plenty of sires (Distorted Humor, Elusive Quality, etc.) that used to fall into that category. His dosage fits (4.00) and his Thorograph figure in his last was a -.75 which makes him just as fast as anyone in here except ‘Revenge. The mere fact that he was even nominated means Derby was on the minds of his connections and what has he done to deter them from that goal? He has absolute push button speed and can rate beautifully and watching that Illinois Derby makes me believe he has finally put it all together. I almost always pick either the favorite or the horse with the highest Beyer, and unlike Andy, the namesake of the speed figures upon which I usually rely, I don’t believe this to be a one horse race. If I Want Revenge beats me, so be it. But I just don’t think he’s in the same class as Street Sense or Big Brown, and thus I can’t take 3-1.

Derby Plays 08

2009-04-20T11:49:00.001-07:00

Lest anyone forget...

MMOD time! Settle down people!

2009-02-27T11:08:00.001-08:00

Due to a ruling which revealed the evidence from a lawsuit unsealed yesterday, we now have video of Dark Horse watching the NCAA Mens Tournament on the internet last year. Sadly he lost his bet on a game-winning three.

Lions Record:

2009-02-20T11:43:00.000-08:00

24: Jack Bauer warns Obama

2009-02-13T13:44:00.000-08:00

Tell me more about ...

2009-01-28T12:54:00.001-08:00

this internet thingy.

Newspapers on a computer? Now that's just silly.

Head Fake From LeBron

2009-01-13T08:46:00.000-08:00

I am sure all of you have seen the pictures above, which were allegedly taken during a video shoot for a Super Bowl commercial that features LebJay. The shoot was likely designed to correspond to a viral marketing campaign that features Lebron. (The article from the "ball Don't Lie" blog on Yahoo! can be found here).

I cannot overemphasize how upset I am by these photos. To me they're like that dream you used to have in 8th grade where you were suddenly dating the coolest girl in the school, or the dream you have today, where suddenly you win a new car. And the dream is so real that when you wake up you are actually confused by the fact that your life wasn't suddenly changed.

That feeling is EXACTLY what I feel about these pictures. LeBron will obviously NEVER risk an injury and ruin to his NBA career by playing football, and its very likely that his contract with the Cavaliers would prohibit this. So to tease fans like this is just stupid.

I have no doubts that LeBron, as an incredible athlete would be an outstanding football player, much like Randy Moss or Antonio Gates. Furthermore, while likely upsetting people like Tim McCarver, two-sport athletes are the most exciting people in sports. From Deon Sanders to Bo Jackson (Tecmo SuperBowl MVP), there are few types of players who truly bring thrill to the sports they play the way that two-sport athletes do.

I am a huge LeBron fan. Always have been. I remember after watching him play in high school, calling LWJ, and saying to him that James was the best player I had ever seen. Including Jordan. So I am a big King James fan.

I would love it if LeBron would say, "Cavs, if you want me, you have to let me play football." What would the Cavs do? They would bend over backwards to make it happen, because they do NOT want to lose him in free agency. He could name his price. And the Cleveland Browns would make it happen in a heartbeat. Lord knows they could use some receivers who could catch.

But sadly its not going to happen. And for me, to allow hype to be built that you might do this, to even pretend that it will happen and then just wuss out is low class.

Irony

2009-01-12T07:44:00.000-08:00

Yes, its been nearly two months since the last post. Yes, we are sorry. Yes, our readership has dwindled to 1 (thanks Menstr8). Nevertheless, its time for a trip down irony lane.

Let's see ... two years ago, LWJ made an incredibly sick call re: The One, and proved prescient and prophetic in his analysis of the Democratic primary contest to come. The irony? His references to Rex Grossman were not misguided: the GOP nominated their own version.

Let's see ... just under a year ago, in a tiny apartment in Walker, Minnesota, under cover of a blizzard, under the influence of 99-calorie beer, and down to our last $850 allotted for the NCAA Men's Basketball tournament, I made the fateful decision to wager the rest of our bankroll on the Pitt Panthers. They lost. (Obama picked them too). But as only fate would have it, they have begun this season on a 15-0 run. Thankfully during this run, I have wagered on (zero) of their games and made back (zero) of the dollars I lost on them last march.

Let's see ... last summer, as blogged on this very site, LWJ, DH, and myself visited a racetrack in suburban Chicago. We utilized the shotgun approach to betting, and invariably bet most every combination imaginable in an attempt to cash a .10 superfecta ticket. All tickets met the trash bin, none were cashed. Flash forward to last weekend. LWJ visits a suburban Chicago racetrack. Without me. And cashed not one, but two superfectas.

Let's see ... The only title used twice for blog posts the whole of last year was ... Florida. (See here and here [edit: and also here]). Not only that, but the most significant reference to college football all fall when posting on this blog was the impressive nature of Mississippi winning at the "Swamp." So when I get to Las Vegas, and have the opportunity to wager on the SEC Championship game, who do I wager on? Not Florida. Surely, I would see the errors of my ways and pick Tebow's team in the Natty, right? Nope ... ouch.

Irony's a bitch.

Hot Mamma! Cuban in trouble again.

2008-11-17T09:53:00.000-08:00

Mark Cuban, the oft-troubled, somewhat infamous owner of the Dallas Mavericks basketball team, has found himself in some deep do-do. Cuban, who is worth over $2 billion personally, has made a name for himself as a professional sports team owner by being vocally critical of everything from the NBA front-office to game referees, and even to superstar Dwayne Wade. In all, his fines for these incidents total more than $1.6 million dollars (he claims that he matches his donations to the NBA with donations to charities).

Well, some charity might just be close to their big payday. For all the trouble Cuban has been in with the NBA, it's the SEC he really should be worried about (no, not the Southeastern Conference, and whether or not he might be able to land a big draft pick form Kentucky or Florida). The SEC is the Securities and Exchange Commission, and they have charged him with insider trading for allegedly using confidential information to avoid more than $750,000 in losses.

To break it down, Cuban owned a bunch of stock in mamma.com, a canadian-held internet search engine company. He found out from confidential sources not made public, that mamma.com was going to have a large stock offering that would be far below current market value. Cuban went ahead and sold his stock when the value was still high (before the large public offereing at a lower price), avoiding losses of nearly $750,000.

From ESPN news services:

As we allege in the complaint, Mamma.com entrusted Mr. Cuban with nonpublic information after he promised to keep the information confidential. Less than four hours later, Mr. Cuban betrayed that trust by placing an order to sell all of his shares," Scott W. Friestad, deputy director of the SEC's Division of Enforcement, said in a statement. "It is fundamentally unfair for someone to use access to nonpublic information to improperly gain an edge on the market.

Cuban had solidified himself as a sleaze-ball well before this, but now he's gone from "sort of ha-ha funny" type pranks (grimace while you laugh), to "ha-ha oops now I'm about to go to prison" type actions.

It's too bad. He was one of those guys that a lot of people hated, but I had a hard time really disliking him. I sort of thought that if I was smart enough to a) come up with a great internet start-up at the beginning of the dot-com boom, b) sell that start up to yahoo.com for $6 billion worth of yahoo stock, and then c) sell my yahoo stock and diversify before the dot-com crash (which of course I was not smart enough to do, nor will I be) that maybe I would take my billions, buy a sports team and then "start stuff" with other teams, owners, referees, coaches, etc.

Oh, well. The higher you climb, the further you fall. Funny that Cuban was willing to pay the NBA almost $2 million, just so he could get his face on TV and name in the papers, but couldn't swallow his pride and bite the bullet on $750,000 of stock options for a website called mamma.com (has anyone ever heard of this site... "the mother of all search engines"?).

Good luck finding a good lawyer. You will undoubtedly spend FAR MORE than $750,000 in the defense of yourself in the case. Someone's getting rich -- and it's too bad it's probably not the charities.

Scott Rasmussen EXCLUSIVE

2008-11-14T12:49:00.000-08:00

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. Scott maintains his independence and has never been a campaign pollster or consultant for candidates seeking office. Before turning to polling, Scott grew up in the broadcast business. In 2008, his poll, the Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll, was deemed to be the most accurate poll by Fordham University.

I recently had a chance to pose a few questions to Mr. Rasmussen regarding the election and polling in general.

OS: Mr. Rasmussen, based on many news reports and confirmed through an analysis by Fordham University, you were the most accurate pollster of the 2008 election. Does this give you a sense of vindication since many in both the print and electronic media sometimes doubted your work during the election cycle?

SR: I did not feel a particular need for vindication. In 2004, we were the only firm to project Bush and Kerry’s actual vote total within half a percentage point. Our firm has a fine track record in state and local polling. But, it’s always nice when the results validate our work.

OS: One reason I suspect you were so successful is your unique method of party-weighting. Without giving away any trade secrets, can you briefly describe your method of party-ID weighting?

SR: We collect large volumes of data and use this information to establish targets for how many republicans, democrats, and unaffiliated voters should be in the sample. This eliminates one level of statistical noise that can impact the results.

OS: Obviously when you conduct a poll for an election, you can verify your methods and techniques by looking at the election results. But when you are conducting surveys and polls not related to politics, is there a way to verify that you are getting accurate responses? If so, how?

SR: There are many ways to verify poll results, but the specifics depend upon the poll. For example, when we poll about health care, we always check to make sure that our sample includes an appropriate percentage of people with no health care coverage.

OS: Other pollsters continue to attempt widespread use of internet polling, even though their results are widely divergent from other telephone polls and the actual election results. Is there reason to believe internet polling is the future of the industry?

SR: The industry will change dramatically over the next few years and we will see a lot of experimentation with online polling, text polling, and more. It is all part of the industry’s future.

OS: Lastly, when reviewing your poll results and data collected over the past year of polling, is there a data point that you don't have, or a question you wished you had tracked or asked?

SR: There are a million data points I wish we had! But, there is not one single data point that keeps me awake at night.

Couldn't Resist

2008-11-10T16:07:00.001-08:00

Race and the election

2008-11-06T10:44:00.000-08:00

It's interesting that throughout the entire campaign, Barack Obama did everything he could to make sure that the election was not about race. Some even called him the 'post-racial' candidate.

Yet, since about 10:00 PM on Tuesday evening, almost the entire coverage of the election has been about 'how far' this country has come since slavery and the civil rights movement of the 1960s. There have been so many clichés about black children finally being able to believe that they can truly be "whatever they want to be" when they grow up, my head hurts. Every civil rights leader still alive has been interviewed. Election night coverage on MSNBC and in the Chicago Tribune the next morning was focused on Atlanta, GA and Selma, AL.

For a candidate that tried so hard to distance himself from the issue of race, and for the liberal media that did the same, it was almost as if they didn't want to make it an issue until the reality of it was overcome. Now that that's been done, the fear of coming up just short isn't present. And the realization of what Obama truly accomplished can be appreciated.

I already miss Sarah!

2008-11-06T09:45:00.000-08:00

In their special election edition, Newsweek reports that Gov. Sarah Palin's shopping spree at high-end department stores was more extensive than previously reported. While publicly supporting Palin, McCain's top advisers privately fumed at what they regarded as her outrageous profligacy."

"One senior aide said that Nicolle Wallace had told Palin to buy three suits for the convention and hire a stylist. But instead, the vice presidential nominee began buying for herself and her family -- clothes and accessories from top stores such as Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus. According to two knowledgeable sources, a vast majority of the clothes were bought by a wealthy donor, who was shocked when he got the bill."

"Palin also used low-level staffers to buy some of the clothes on their credit cards. The McCain campaign found out last week when the aides sought reimbursement. One aide estimated that she spent 'tens of thousands' more than the reported $150,000, and that $20,000 to $40,000 went to buy clothes for her husband. Some articles of clothing have apparently been lost. An angry aide ... said the truth will eventually come out when the Republican Party audits its books."

But the best part is that she didn't even know Africa was a continent:

A little more?

2008-11-05T12:22:00.000-08:00

I know we have been pretty demanding of LWJ, especially since he is in the first semester of law school, but he is in the belly of the beast so to speak, so I am just going to have to ask him for a little more.

LWJ, would it be too much to ask to have you attend this one? I would love it if we could get our blog linked in with some others. And it seems like an amazing cause. (As you may have noticed we have had The Field linked all year long, and have always hat tipped Nate Silver and Sean Quinn when time and space permitted.)

Morning Thoughts

2008-11-05T09:05:00.000-08:00

To the left are Nate Silver's predictions for the 2008 election. I will have you note that the final popular vote is currently standing at 52.4 to 46.4 and the Obama's electoral votes stand at 349.

Downright insane that he missed the popular vote by one tenth of a percent, and due to his computers unwillingness to round electoral votes, missed the EV by 4 tenths of a point. Amazing. He clearly stamped himself as the new electoral number crunching guru.

----------------------------

Let's see here ... we know that America elected a President who wrote about doing cocaine and marijuana in his autobiography (which makes him the second consecutive President to have admitted to cocaine use), elected a Senator who is a convicted felon, and elected a member to the House of Representatives who had federal agents find $40,000 worth of cash in his freezer. (Hat tip Hurricane)

Do coke? Check.
Convicted felon? Check.
Take bribes and try to conceal it? Check
Well, then. You now have the qualifications to be elected to Washington.

----------------------------

Prop 8 passed. So no more gay marriages. What's nonsensical to me is that we had the new President-elect and Vice-President elect opposed to Prop 8, but against same-sex marriage. I am mystified at how they reconcile that in their own minds.

----------------------------

The Minnesota Senate race is still too close to call. Franken had it won until Coleman stopped the negative ads and crept back into the race. Bachman won. And so did Paulson.

A little note to Franken, Tinklenberg and Madia: Read Zogby before you start going negative. In April he warned that going negative this year would be a HUGE mistake. McCain tried it-lost. Madia tried it-lost. Tinklenberg had absolutely no reason to go negative, as LWJ put it "when your opponent is trying to hang themselves stay the f**k away from the noose." But alas, Tinklenberg couldn't resist. And he lost.

Franken had the most to lose by going negative and the most to gain by staying positive. The more Coleman attacked him (which we knew was going to happen), the better Franken would have looked staying positive. An agreement in February to keep the campaign positive would have frozen Coleman and won the election for Franken. But he just couldn't resist going negative. I hope he likes his role as a satirist more than he would have liked Senate chambers.

Grant Park Last Night

2008-11-05T06:28:00.000-08:00

Nebraska 2nd may not go Obama's way

2008-11-05T06:08:00.001-08:00

Move back into toss-up.

[UPDATE: In the spirit of the AP retracting calls, they have also retracted their call in the Minnesota Senate race. Also, they have yet to call Georgia in either the Senate or the Presidency. Apparently there are massive amounts of uncounted early votes from predominantly African-American counties that are still unprocessed.]

Obama wins Nebraska Second!

2008-11-04T23:58:00.000-08:00

Obama wins Nebraska's second Congressional district. He'll pick up another electoral vote there.

[UPDATE: 2:08 AM Central: Franken has pulled ahead by 1,000 votes]
[UPDATE: 2:14 AM Central: With 66% precincts reporting, Ted Stevens, convicted felon, is winning in the Alaska Senate race, 48%-47%]

LWJ @ Grant Park

2008-11-04T21:23:00.001-08:00

* they got their puppy*

Simply stunning.

LIVE BLOG #5 - 10:00 PM Central

2008-11-04T20:13:00.000-08:00

11:00 (DH) - Landslide victory possible, blowout if all 3 go to obama

10:57 (OS) - Obama still leading in Montana, Indiana, and North Carolina.

10:47 (OS) - With 1,300,000+ votes cast, only 56 votes seperate Coleman and Franken. 56 votes.

10:35 (OS) - Great speech by McCain, wonderfully respectful and very heartfelt. You wonder why that McCain appeared only rarely during the campaign.

10:14 (OS) - North Carolina is currently 1,932,000 to 1,929,000 but ... Warren County is the last remaining county to come in. DH used to report from Warren County. We are hoping he can deliver.

LIVE BLOG #4 - 9:00 PM Central

2008-11-04T19:00:00.000-08:00

9:56 (LWJ)

9:52 (LWJ)

9:45 - (OS) Things we are watching: the Senate race in MN, Prop 8 in California, and whether we predicted the race perfectly.

9:42 - (OS) Don't fear, I am still here with you all. Shout outs to Hurricaine, A. Philip Noxid, and obvi, my bro in law.

9:23 - (LWJ) Hey all, I'm cracking the champagne for the Obama campaign. And then we are heading down to Grant Park. This will be incredible. I hope I live to tell about it. Anyway, thanks for your interest in our blog tonight. And check back going forward. We will continue to report on funny news regarding politics and sports, and of course, we will interject our own brilliant insight as well. Thanks again. Good night. And, good luck.

9:18 - (OS) My mother is pretty sure LWJ is going to be trampled to death in Grant Park

9:17 - (LWJ) New Mexico in the Obama column. It's over. If you take his total and add in California (55) and Hawaii (4), he is at 266. That means he needs 1 of the following: Washington, Oregon, Indiana, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, or Florida.

9:12 - (LWJ) As it sits right now, according to NBC:

9:09 - (LWJ) MSNBC reports that South Dakota abortion ban has failed for a second time.

9:09 - (LWJ) Another deep south state goes to McCain. Mississippi.

9:05 - (LWJ) Every single Police officer and firefighter in Chicago is on duty tonight. My girlfriend also informed me that her west-side Chicago hospital is on bio-terrorism stand-by.

9:04 - (OS) Landrieu (Democrat) is leading in Louisiana and is (barely) over 50% so it appears she will avoid a runoff

9:03 (DH) Obama within 5,000 votes in Indiana, Gary hasn't come in yet. THIS COULD BE A BLOWOUT!!!

9:02 (DH) OBAMA widening lead in NC and VA. A couple states south of the mason-dixon line pulling for a black president. Unbelieveable

9:00 - (LWJ) Iowa instantly called for Obama.

LIVE BLOG #3 - Continued

2008-11-04T18:31:00.000-08:00

8:55 - (OS) Texas for McCain.

8:52 - (LWJ) Tim Russert montage on NBC. Sad to think of who all is missing this historic night. Russert. Duck Durbin's daughter. And Obama's grandmother.

8:44 - (LWJ) Imagine if Clinton hadn't pulled Jeremiah Wright and McCain introduced the video footage in September.

8:42 - (LWJ) My girlfriend just asked if the questionable land that the Obama's bought from Rezko will be turned into a heli-pad.

8:41 - (LWJ) Even if the Dems don't get 60 seats, they will have a comfortable majority for years to come. If for example, the Dems have a bad mid-term election in 2010 and lose 5 seats, they would still have a majority.

8:37 - (DH) CNN just called ohio, go party baby, go party!

8:32 - (LWJ) CNN isn't calling Ohio. But MSNBC has called it. The girlfriend and I are heading down to Grant Park soon. Can't miss out on a party like this.

Congratulations to the 44th President of the U.S. Barack Obama

2008-11-04T18:26:00.001-08:00

President Obama. Who thought it would ever happen?

LIVE BLOG #3 - 8:00 Central

2008-11-04T18:00:00.001-08:00

8:27 (DH) YES WE CAN! AND WE DID!! OBAMA IS NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE USA. HECK YES!! HE WINS!!

8:25 (DH) OBAMA WINS!!! OUR NEXT PRESIDENT!!!! YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YES!!!!!!!! WE WIN!

8:23 (DH) AND EVERYTHING JUST CHANGED!!! OBAMA TAKES OHIO!

8:22 - (DH) Things are starting to get sticky. A little bit of nervousness coming through in this house. This looks like Kerry. Lots of states for Obama, but nothing big.

8:20 - (OS) CNN is giving the KY Senate race to McConnell. Looks impossible now that the Dems will end the night with 60 Senate seats.

8:14 - (LWJ) fivethirtyeight.com just called the New Mexico Senate race for Tom Udall, the Democrat. This is another pick-up for the Democrats.

8:13 - (OS) Map still the same as Kerry in 2004.

8:09 - (LWJ) Things are getting tight in VA and IN. Could be a long night in both places. Also - KY Senate race is holding at 51-49, but I don't know if Bruce Lansford can pull it out if he doesn't cut that lead soon.

8:08 - (LWJ) Arkansas for McCain.

8:06 - Dad just said "Franken IS NOT GOING TO WIN"
OS: "why'd you try to convince me to vote for him, then?"

8:04 - (LWJ) Here's how it's looking right now:

8:02: (OS) DH is strongly wondering why he didnt saty in NC and cast his vote there.

8:00 - (LWJ) Insta-calls: McCain wins KS, ND, WY Obama wins NY, MI, MN, WI, RI

LIVE BLOG #2 - 7:00 PM Central

2008-11-04T17:00:00.001-08:00

7:55 - (LWJ) On MSNBC, congressman Tom Delay (R) just predicted that the Democrats in Congress are gong to "run circles" around Obama and that Nancy Pelosi is going to push her agenda through and "double the minimum wage" in the next 6 months.

7:54 - (DH) DH has been trying to shout out pailin=failin all NIGHT for drinking a sam sampler pack, i believe that HDC is doing that as well!

7:52 - (OS) MN polls close in less than ten minutes ... any presidcitons LWJ?

7:50 - (LWJ) CNN (Best Political Team on Television) says that Obama is far outperforming Kerry in key counties in FL and IN. James Carville also just said that he doesn't see a path to victory for McCain.

7:49 - (LWJ) The Kentucky Senate race is tightening. Remember that the sitting Republican Senator, Mitch McConnell is the minority leader of the Senate. It's now 51-49 with 39% of precincts reporting.

7:47 - (LWJ) - McCain leads Virginia, but my girlfriend points out that 2 years ago James Carville conceded the Senate race in Virginia to Republican George Allen early in the night. Then took it back. It kept tightening and tightening as results came in. Then, with about 98% of precints reporting, Democrat Jim Webb took the lead and held on.

7:43 - (OS) McCain has no route.

7:36 - (LWJ) McCain wins GA. Surprising (at least to me) that they called it this early.

7:35 - (OS) GOP sources on MN TV networks, are reporting that Michelle Bachman will retain her seat.

7:34 - (LWJ) - McCain wins Alabama. Not surprising. I wonder what percentage of the black vote Obama carried there. (Just checked CNN exit polls. Obama won the black vote 98-2)

7:33 - (OS) Without NH, McCain's map gets THAT much harder

7:33 - (OS) Why haven't they called Georgia?

7:32 - (LWJ) MSNBC just moved Virginia from 'Too Early to Call' to 'Too Close to Call.' That's not good news for Obama. The early results there are strong for McCain. With 36% precincts reporting its 55%-35% for McCain.

7:31 - (LWJ) MSNBC just called Kay Hagan as North Carolina Senator. YESSIRRRR!

7:23 - (LWJ) Democrats are kind of like Cubs fans. We're so used to losing, we don't know what to do when we win.

7:16: Democrat Jean Shaheen will win the contested NH Senate seat. In NJ, Republican Susan Collins will keep her seat. Democrat Dick Durbin (Yeah!!! - we love Dick Durbin) will keep his seat in IL. Democrat John Kerry will keep is seat in MA.

7:08 - Biden will win his Senate seat. Nice to have that as a fall back in case he and Obama lose tonight. Here's how it looks right now:

7:02 - Delaware, Biden's home state, will go to the Obama-Biden ticket. Chris Matthews said that Pennsylvania was a failure for the Republicans.

7:01 - New Hampshire - Obama. Maine as well. These instant calls are good news. It means it wasn't even close.

7:00 - PENSYLVANIA - OBAMA. Also NJ, IL, MA, D.C., MD, CT. McCain will win TN, OK.

LIVE BLOG #1 - 6:00 PM Central

2008-11-04T15:58:00.000-08:00

7:03 - MORE NEWS! Christian-Evangelicas are voting for McCain 3 to 1

7:02 - This JUST IN! From CNN, black people prefer Obama, and white people prefer McCain

6:59 (LWJ) - Some insta calls coming when polls close at 7:00. 15 states and D.C. will close in 1 minute.

6:57 (LWJ) - Tonight is, in the end, is a night about Democrats. Yeah, it sucks that we had Bush in the White House for 8 years. But, man have the Democrats capitalized.

6:45 (LWJ) - Lieberman on MSNBC looking happy to be on McCain's plane. Hope he gets comfy in the back of the Senate.

6:43 - (LWJ) - According to exit polls, the late breakers went for Obama in North Carolina 62-35

6:37 - Democrat Jay Rockafeller will keep is Senate seat in West Virigina (MSNBC). BTW - does anyone else think he looks like Jim Boeheim?

6:36 - The news from electoralvote.com looks pretty good. Here's is the final map from today. Here is the final map from 4 years ago.

6:34 - (LWJ) Uh Oh! Chris Matthews is starting to drool about Obama.

6:34 Mom: Oh, dear

6:34 OS: There will be rioting in Chicago

6:34 Mom: What will happen if he loses?

6:32 Obama down 8 - 3, and my dad has pretty much given up on Barack.

6:26 - (LWJ) talingpointsmemo.com has some important exit polls. Remember, these are just exit polls, but the indications are good.

Georgia: McCain 50%, Obama 48%
Indiana: Obama 52%, McCain 46%
Virginia: Obama 54%, McCain 45%

6:21 - (LWJ) Lines of up to 6 hours reported in Chesapeake, VA. Don't want to say I called it. But, I called it.

6:15 - (LWJ) WOW. CNN just 'virtually' brought a reporter into the CNN election center. This is absolutely the dumbest thing I've ever seen. Wolf Blitzer it "talking" to someone who is 1,000 miles away, but we see them talking face-to-face through a 'hologram.' Terrible. I'm about to turn on Fox News.

6:11 - (OS) Another Presidential call: McCain will win South Carolina.

6:10 - (LWJ) Republican Lindsay Graham will keep his Senate seat in South Carolina (NBC).

6:05 - (LWJ) Democrat Mark Warner will be the Senator from Virginia (CNN). This is a pick up from the Republicans, but not a huge surprise. Warner has been up by huge margins throughout the race.

6:04 - (LWJ) Interesting looking at the exit polls in Indiana. For the question "Who Is In Touch With People Like You?" Obama won 45%-27%. That's crushing for McCain especially when the election is all about the economy.

6:00 - (LWJ) Our first calls. CNN says Obama in VT and McCain in KY.

5: 59 - (LWJ) Good evening! We are about to see history tonight. Either a black candidate will be elected for the first time or a woman will be elected on a major party ticket for the first time. A sitting senator will be elected for the first time since 1960. A candidate from somewhere other than the deep south or California will be elected for the first time since 1960 as well. No matter what, should be a fun night.

forecast

2008-11-04T05:45:00.000-08:00

... And you should too! I stood in line for about an hour and actually loved it. YES WE CAN!

A couple of things of note. First of all, I fell asleep last night relieved. Not only becuause fivethirtyeight.com has Barack's win percentage at over 98% for the first time, but also because what I thought would happen never happened. The republicans never mounted an all out attack. There was no major last-ditch effort at reviving the Jeremiah Wright story, or Barack Hussein chants, or any noteworthy 13th-hour attempt at swaying the voters back to McCain.

He has, it seems, thrown in the towel. Less than 2% of voters woke this morning still undecided, and even if 70% of those people vote for McCain -- which is unlikely -- Obama will still win both the popular and electoral college votes, making him the first minority president in our country's history.

I will offer more thoughts and insight as the day goes on, but I wanted to quickly update on the weather in some key states:

Summary: Let's hope afternoon rain in Philly and Harrisburg doesn't keep blue votes away today. McCain's chances look cloudy in Florida, but a bit of "hope sunshine" might just be breaking through. Morning rain in North Carolina... maybe it'll wash away any chances of a republican comeback there. The weather looks great in Missouri: "Show me" a victory for Barack, baby! Wind and rain in Montana might just blow the ol' Maverick's chances outta there.

Recap: McCain needs to win Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, and Montana. If he drops any of those states, it's pretty much over.

Get out and vote!

Please ... Vote

2008-11-04T04:37:00.000-08:00

I know all of you will, and it's not like you really needed more motivation. But if the lines get long, and the weather gets bad...

Adam’s Story:

Upon arriving at the Hamilton County Board of Elections in Cincinnati to vote early today I happened upon some friends of my mother's — three small, elderly Jewish women. They were quite upset as they were being refused admittance to the polling location due to their Obama T-Shirts, hats and buttons. Apparently you cannot wear [political] gear into polling locations here in Ohio.... They were practically on the verge of tears.

After a minute or two of this a huge man (6'5", 300 lbs easy) wearing a Dale Earnhardt jacket and Bengal's baseball cap left the voting line, came up to us and introduced himself as Mike. He told us he had overheard our conversation and asked if the ladies would like to borrow his jacket to put over their t-shirts so they could go in and vote. The ladies quickly agreed. As long as I live I will never forget the image of these 80-plus-year-old Jewish ladies walking into the polling location wearing a huge Dale Earnhardt racing jacket that came over their hands and down to their knees!

Mike patiently waited for each woman to cast their vote, accepted their many thanks and then got back in line (I saved him a place while he was helping out the ladies). When Mike got back in line I asked him if he was an Obama supporter. He said that he was not, but that he couldn't stand to see those ladies so upset. I thanked him for being a gentleman in a time of bitter partisanship and wished him well.

After I voted I walked out to the street to find my mother's friends surrounding our new friend Mike — they were laughing and having a great time. I joined them and soon learned that Mike had changed his mind in the polling booth and ended up voting for Obama. When I asked him why he changed his mind at the last minute, he explained that while he was waiting for his jacket he got into a conversation with one of the ladies who had explained how the Jewish community, and she, had worked side by side with the black community during the civil rights movements of the '60s, and that this vote was the culmination of those personal and community efforts so many years ago. That this election for her was more than just a vote ... but a chance at history.

Mike looked at me and said, "Obama's going to win, and I didn't want to tell my grandchildren some day that I had an opportunity to vote for the first black president, but I missed my chance at history and voted for the other guy."

Sean’s Story:

Back at the [Obama] rally… I spotted a very old black man in a sharp Sunday suit walking slowly at the very back of the huge march. He hadn't yet arrived at the voting center, and I decided to find him when I got back.

I wanted to go talk to him, to ask him what this moment meant to him. He was a guy who you take one glance at, and know, that guy's seen it all. I wanted a quote. I had my journalist hat on. I thought, this will be great.

So when I got back to the voting location with the car, I went to find him in the line. Eventually I spotted him, and was ready to walk up the few feet between us and introduce myself when I stopped in my tracks.

A young black boy, no more than eight years old, walked up to this man, who was at least eighty. The boy offered the man a sticker, probably an "I Voted" sticker, but I couldn't see. The man took the sticker and paused. Silently, he looked down at the boy, who was looking back up at the man. The man put his hand gently on the boy's head, and I saw his eyes glisten.

I didn't ask the man for a quote. I didn't need to. I walked over by myself, behind the community center, and I sat down on a bench next to the track, and wept.

Brent’s Story:

Due to the recent discovery of having an aggressive form of cancer, I'll never vote again. But thankfully I cast my last vote for whom I sincerely believe to the best and most consequential presidential candidate to ever appear on the ballot in all of my 53 years, Barack Obama.

Like many of members of this community, I've got decades worth of political experience in terms of volunteer work and more formal elective roles within the county and state Democratic parties - along with consulting and managing campaigns and even an eleven year stint in promoting our side on talk radio.

But this election year and the candidate we are championing simply seems to dwarf anything I've been involved with in the past. Obviously a large part of that is due to the extraordinary abuse that the current regime has inflicted upon our country in the last eight years - but it's also much larger than that.

Back in early 2006 when I was mentally constructing the attributes that our next presidential should bring to the table - one unusual need kept re-occurring to me. Our next candidate needed to find a way in inject some Love into the process. Not the typical "love of country" but the ability to project a genuine love for our fellow citizens into the mix.

Much to my surprise and despite all of the traditional concerns that this political veteran initially had - Barack Obama emerged as the precise type of candidate that these extraordinary times called for. And that makes me happy beyond belief and provides me with the will and determination to live to election day and even a ways beyond.

So YES WE CAN … Stay active and keep pushing those winning ideals. I'll be with you in spirit all the way!

It's almost here...

2008-11-03T19:42:00.000-08:00

The sun'll come out
Tomorrow
So ya gotta hang on
'Til tomorrow
Come what may
Tomorrow! Tomorrow!
I love ya Tomorrow!
You're always
A day
A way!

-- Annie

A few more predictions, and then some final thoughts.

- Tomorrow, the key state to keep an eye on is Pennsylvania. If Obama wins the Keystone state, the election is his. Official Scorer pointed this out about 2.5 weeks ago, and he couldn't be more right. If McCain wins the election it doesn't mean he will win, but it means we will have a very late night and Obama is in deep trouble.
- Expect incredible turnout. There will be reports of 6 hour lines in some states. The reports will be true. Americans are paying attention at unprecedented levels. Registration is up throughout the country. We have a black candidate on a major party ticket for the first time. We have a woman on a major party ticket for the first time in over 20 years. Expect record turnout.
- Expect the exit polls to be wrong. Exit polls are meant to give us a sense of why voters vote the way they do. They are not meant as predictive models.
- The closest states will probably be NC and GA. If Obama wins GA - don't be shocked. Huckabee, not McCain carried the state in the Republican primaries. Black turnout there has been at incredible levels during early voting. If it stays above 30% (it's at 35% right now), an Obama win in the deep south is not out of the question.
- Finally, check back often tomorrow evening. We will be liveblogging and updating frequently. We will have information on key Senate races as well.

As I sit here in Chicago and wait for the world to descend on our city tomorrow, I only hope that things turn out for the best. I have been following this election for 21 months. I watched Obama give his announcement speech in Springfield, IL from the steps of the Old State Capital building. I made phone calls to voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. I called old black women in Columbia, South Carolina urging them to attend an Obama rally featuring Oprah. I drove 4 hours to Iowa and spent almost a week driving the back roads in snowstorms to get to doors on the outskirts of Burlington, Iowa, in the eastern part of the state that plays such a pivotal roll in how we determine our president.

I have spent, literally, thousands of hours following political news and blogs. If there has been movement in the polls, I've known about it. If there has been breaking news about Obama, McCain, or Clinton, I've known about it (and, yet, the amount of time that I've spent following this election probably pales in comparison to Official Scorer).

What I've learned is that people in this country are yearning for something better than what we've had for the past 8 years. Independents are tired of the divisiveness of the Bush presidency and the partisan politics. Democrats, still feeling the sting of Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004, are searching for something to restore their faith in the political process. I have felt, through these emotions, the true effect of Barack Obama. I've been in campaign offices that are overflowing with volunteers. I've spoken with people who said they weren't sure they would ever vote again. I've spoken with young people who never cared about politics. And the resounding sense that I've everyone I've encountered is that this isn't about Barack. It's about America. It's about feeling good about ourselves. It's about overcoming fear and hate, and deciding to chose hope and belief. Barack may have said it best himself when he said, "I'm not asking you to believe in me. I'm asking you to believe in yourselves."

His campaign took no money from Political Action Committees. Not like he needed any. He raised ungodly sums on the internet. Can I disagree with sentiment that he bought this election? Probably not. Then again, after Florida in 2000 and the Swiftboat campaign in 2004, I guess I don't much care.

But, it's not all about money. Obama created an unprecedented ground operation. He empowered his volunteers, and they responded. Yeah, Obama had money to help him. He also had hundreds of thousands of Americans sacrificing a little of themselves to help Barack win.

For the first time in my life, I'm proud of America (oops, I said it). At my tender age - with the frustration of the past two presidential elections, and especially the fact that we re-elected a President that took us into the quagmire of Iraq without ever finishing the job against those who attacked us on 9/11 - can you really blame me?

I don't necessarily think that Obama can defeat global warming, end poverty and genocide, get truly universal healthcare, or change the world. But, he will get a lot closer than John McCain and, unlike President Bush, these issues will at least be on his radar. And probably most important to nearly everyone in my socioeconomic circle of friends and family, Obama is clearly the best candidate for President to tackle economic issues that matter to the middle class.

I could sit and write for hours about why I'm voting for Barack. Leadership. Intelligence. Cool-headedness. I won't go into great detail. I'll let you make up your mind on the merits. Then again, if you're reading this blog, I have a good sense of how you will vote anyway.
Tomorrow, there is only one thing left. Vote. Nothing more can be said or done. Vote. Vote. Vote.

[UPDATE: Clearly, I meant, this is the first time I'm proud of the political process in America. Everyone knows that ;-)]

Predictions ...

2008-11-03T17:47:00.000-08:00

Not sure how picking college football consensus All-Americans does not lead to more fist-fights, but LWJ and I have agreed on an electoral map of what will happen tomorrow.

We predict the final vote will be approximately 47 percent and change for McCain and 51 percent and change for Obama, or as LWJ predicted around a 3.5 % margin of victory in the popular vote.

LWJ is busy studying, I think, or canvassing, and he will be on in a bit to update the final projections and calls. The key to the map above is: Solid states are a greater than 5% margin of victory for the winning candidate; Lean states are predicted to be less than 5% margin of victory for the winning candidate.

Barack Obama's grandmother dies

2008-11-03T13:54:00.000-08:00

This just in: Madelyn Dunham, the woman who raised Barack Obama, has died of cancer on the eve of his election as president of the United States. How impossibly tragic. It's utterly, utterly heartbreaking. Only one more day, and she would have lived, most likely, to see her grandson make history.

This is something you wouldn't believe if Hollywood made it up.

God bless her soul, and be with the Obama and Dunham families in this moment of loss. There's really nothing else to say. If you seek Madelyn Dunham's monument, turn on your TV around 10 o'clock tomorrow night. He'll be speaking to the nation.

Off his rocker

2008-11-03T10:51:00.000-08:00

A while back, I heard someone say that if Obama win's the presidency, Matt Drudge's head may explode. Well, today, we moved a step close to that happening.

Drudge, who is known for his ability to get news first and make it immediately available to the public, is also known for his politically conservative tendencies. He has been on a personal crusade to derail Obama for weeks. His website is extremely popular. It gets more hits than the New York Times website (Drudge reports over 700 million hits in October alone).

In recent weeks, though, he has been headlining race-baiting photos, incendiary viral videos, and just about any unflattering news story, image, or article he can find about Obama. Today, however, he has gone off the deep end. Screenshot from 1:00 CT:

[UPDATE: Not to further confuse, or hijack LWJ's post, but another bastion of conservatism is also running out of options in how to help McCain, but their editorial staff is confused as to whether news of a blow-out or news of a close race is more helpful:]

Some Early Predictions

2008-10-31T17:08:00.000-07:00

A teaser for the next few days:

We'll be out with our full election 2008 predictions over the weekend or by Monday at the latest.

Also, we'll likely be live-blogging on Tuesday night. So, as you watch the election returns, keep checking back in with our blog.

--

Now - the early predictions. I made these about 10 days ago, but I am feeling even more confident with them right now. The 2008 Presidential Election will feature:

The highest voter turnout (by percentage) since 1908.
The highest black voter turnout (by percentage) ever.
A 3.5% win by Barack Obama (Yeah, I said it)

ACORN: No Joking Matter

2008-10-31T13:55:00.000-07:00

I know some on here like to make jokes about ACORN ... but we now have proof that they intend to disrupt voting in places like Florida:

VERO BEACH — A frisky squirrel caused a 1 ½-hour power outage affecting 800 customers including the Indian River County Library and Courthouse on Thursday morning, city power officials said.

The outage slowed - but didn't stop - early voting at the library. During the outage, early voting went on by flashlight. Further information about how the votes were processed was not immediately available.

At about 8:45 a.m., a squirrel leaped from a tree onto a power line, causing a fire that tripped an electrical switch, knocking out a power line feeding a section of the downtown, said Randall McCamish, the city’s director of electrical transmission and distribution.

The dead squirrel was found lying on the ground.

Once the power was restored, early voting continued as usual.

...

No doubt we can blame it on an acorn.

More Haloween Jokes

2008-10-31T09:39:00.000-07:00

+ + =

Sack knocks another one out of the ballpark.

A ghostly, ghastly Friday, indeed

2008-10-31T07:41:00.000-07:00

I know it’s Friday, and nobody wants to read a long blog post. But this is worth it. I found this on wftv’s web page. This was actually written. And published. By a person.

Personally, I think it should be called WTF TV. It’s not so much the content. It’s Haloween, so it shouldn’t surprise us that there are ghosts rising from their graves to cast votes in this all-important election. That happens. What is far more surprising is that this was actually posted by a Florida TV station. If you ever wondered the intelligence of our citizenry, look no further than the sources of their information.

I present you with Dead People Voting Throughout Florida, published Thursday, October 30, 2008, on Channel 9's wftv.com: (I have not altered anything from the original content).

VOLUSIA COUNTY, Fla. –

Thousands of dead Floridians are registered to vote and some in Central Florida had ballots cast in their names long after their deaths.

"That is scary," said Jim Branch.

Branch's mother Marjorie died in 2004 but someone voted for her in 2006. Branch had tried to get his mother removed from the voter rolls.

"It was much easier for me calling Social Security and taking her off not getting any more checks here, than it was that (voter registration)," he sid.

County records show James Santiago voted in the 2006 general election. He too, was dead. His wife, Joann, sees this as an open invitation for voter fraud.

"I think it leaves it open to sign his name, during an election, especially an important one like this year," said Joann.

Channel Nine discovered 1,636 registered voters in Central Florida are dead.

"This is what makes Supervisors of Elections lose sleep at night," said Volusia County Supervisor of Elections Ann McFall.

McFall said it used to be easy to clear out voter rolls.

"We had two people who did nothing but cut obituary notices out of the papers," she said.

"That's how we found out someone died."

But 2002's Help America Vote act, which made it easier to register to vote, also made it more difficult to remove voters from the rolls. But Orange County Election Supervisor

Bill Cowles doesn't worry. "I think the mechanisms are in place. There's enough checks and balances in place," he said.

However, 90 days before the election, voter rolls can't be changed and if the state doesn't tell elections offices a voter has died, that voter can be on the rolls for years.

"The minute I said he was deceased, they should've made note, they should've done whatever they had to do, the people sitting behind that table, they should have done something," said Joann Santiago

Elections supervisors say they are pushing the state to allow them to accept death certificates from families as reasonable evidence to remove dead voters from the rolls.

If this doesn’t brighten (sarcastically) your Friday, I’m not sure what will. I’m cutting out of work early today. I’ve got some redistributionist regulatory work to do.

Very Slow Thursday

2008-10-30T11:10:00.000-07:00

Since the day is going so slowly, I figure everyone needs a bit of a pick-me-up. So some quick trivia for ya, and then a little visit from Terry Tate.

I wonder what kind of odds could you have gotten in 1908 that a black dude would get elected president before the Cubs won the Series again? -- Nate Silver

But don't pay out those bets too quickly, because in every Presidential Election year that the Los Angeles Lakers went to the NBA Finals, the Republican candidate won (1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000, 2004, 2008).

Before you vote...

2008-10-30T06:22:00.000-07:00

Read this

This was passed on to me by a more conservative friend...

I wish everyone a good day. I'm going to take off work early and spend my afternoon redistributing.

A Man Without a Home

2008-10-29T21:04:00.000-07:00

On IMDB, the plot for the movie The Terminal is described like this:

While Viktor Navorski is en route to the U.S. to fulfill a wish of his late father's, there is a coup in the Eastern European country in which he lives. When he lands at JFK, he learns that his country is no longer recognized by the U.S. so he cannot enter - and he can't go home either, because all planes to his country are canceled. While waiting in this limbo, Viktor takes up residence in JFK Terminal and learns another definition of home.

I haven't seen the movie, but it's pretty easy to imagine.

Thinking about this movie (again, I haven't seen it), makes me think about another man without a home. Joseph Isadore "Joe" Lieberman. Oh how the mighty - or not so mighty - have fallen.

It wasn't so long ago the Lieberman was traveling the country, and the world with his homeboy, J-Mac. Lieberman served a useful purpose for J-Mac. When J-Mac didn't know the difference between Sunni and Shia Muslims, and didn't even know that there was a dispute between the two denominations of Islam, Lieberman was there to help him out. Hey, who could blame J-Mac? Sunnis and Shia's have only been fighting for 1,400 years.

Lieberman also acted as a surrogate and attack dog for J-Mac throughout this campaign. Lieberman questioned Obama and attacked Obama throughout the spring and summer. Who could really blame him? He was J-Mac's biggest supporter. He was the representation of all that was Mavericky about J-Mac. I mean, how many times has J-Mac talked about reaching accross the isle to his friend, Joe "the Senator?" Liberman had the inside track to the VP slot on J-Mac's ticket. They were best friends. Lieberman, however, wasn't selected to be VP (weren't they best friends!?!). J-Mac decided that this person would be a better VP candidated that Lierberman:

Ohhhhh. Joe "the Senator" must be angry. He was there for J-Mac. He had J-Mac's back. He helped him out. He knew the difference between Sunni and Shia. Sarah Palin can't even claim that much.

It wasn't too long ago that Joe "the Senator" was a Democrat (capital 'D'). He was on a Democratic ticket that won the popular vote for the Presidency only 8 years ago. Since then, however, his pro-war, pro-Bush, and pro-J-Mac stance has got him in trouble. In 2006, he lost his primary election, as an incumbent. He ended up winning the election as an Independent (capital 'I').

This fall, for a time, even after he got snubbed by J-Mac, Joe "the Senator" probably thought things would be OK. "J-Mac & Trig's mom" had a nice ring to it. It seemed like they might even win this election. Joe "the Senator" could keep his position as a Senator, or possibly take a cushy appointment in a J-Mac administration. But things took a turn for the worse. That 'unqualified' Obama guy took a lead in the polls. Then he extended that lead. All of a sudden it began to look like he might win the election.

Even worse for Joe "the Senator" was the fact that it doesn't appear that 2006 was the only Democratic landslide that we are going to see this decade. 2008 is shaping up to produce even more gains for the Democratic party. And for Joe "the Senator," this isn't good news. Joe "the Senator" is the chairman of two important committees in the Senate. Sure, the Democrats control the Senate and Joe "the Senator" isn't a Democrat. But he used to be. And, he typically caucuses with Democrats (unless he's chosing a Presidential candidate). Moreover, the Democrats, in the Senate, are clinging to a 51-49 majority in the Senate. This majority includes Joe "the Senator." They need Joe "the Senator" to keep their majority. They wouldn't take away his prized chairmanship positions because they need his vote.

But, the landslide is going to come. The Democrats are going to pick up anywhere between 5 and 9 seats in the Senate next Tuesday. All of a sudden, Joe's vote won't be so important to the Democrats. The Democratic leadership won't need to cajole and masage the ego of Joe "the Senator" anymore. And his chairmanships? Harry Reid can give them to whomever he damn well pleases. Do we think that Joe sees the writing on the wall? Earlier this week, Lieberman couldn't wait any longer to find the nearest news agency to proclaim his new found respect for Sen. Obama:

When I go out, I say, 'I have a lot of respect for Sen. Obama. He's bright. He's eloquent.'

Who is Joe fooling with this act of his? Anyone? He'd have to be a far better actor to pull of this switch-a-roo. He'd have to win an Oscar, just like Tom Hanks has, once or twice in his career. Joe, I know Tom Hanks. And you're no Tom Hanks.

Simpsons Strike Again

2008-10-28T20:59:00.000-07:00

More reports of touch screens moving votes from Obama to McCain. This time in Texas.

According to CNN:

A caller from Beaumont, Texas reports that his mother, who he accompanied to the polls, had problems assuring the electronic touch screen machine was accurately recording her preference for Sen. Barack Obama. “She went to punch the selection for Obama and it flipped to McCain,” the caller said.

Midnight Train to Georgia

2008-10-28T16:44:00.001-07:00

I know its hard to imagine, but there is widespread voting issues going on in Georgia. We are still a week away from election day and already there are problems.

We have poll workers illegally voting for people.

We have people not being registered because they are Black.

We have ballots that only show Republicans.

We have a beautiful First Amendment issue. Left Wing Jumper, you taking Con Law yet?

Some people have issues cause they haven't voted since they got to choose between Clinton and Bush.

And a shockingly brazen attempt to commit about six felonies (one less than Sen. Stevens).

But the most serious issue appears to be this one.

What? Our votes don't "actually" count? WTF?

Oh, and proof that someone actually reads our blog.

One week to go

2008-10-28T11:57:00.000-07:00

This will be the final map we publish until sometime late Monday night. This is the race as best we see it. Obviously the map can change, but key point is the every "Kerry state" is safely blue (with the exception of New Hampshire), along with Iowa and New Mexico. If that holds, Obama needs just one more state, any state, and victory is his.

When to vote?

2008-10-28T06:38:00.000-07:00

For most of you out there in non-swing states, you will be voting on November 4th. But for those of you in Virginia (and presumably other swing states) you will want to take note of a document that was just faxed to me by the Virginia Board of Elections.

On Friday, in an emergency session of the General Assembly, in an effort to reduce the burden of a massive turnout (and to avoid the type of legal liability that has already resulted in one law suit), the State of Virginia has decided to spread voting out over two days.

You can read the full text of the press release below, but I just wanted anyone in Virginia to know when they were supposed to vote.

2008-10-27T20:34:00.000-07:00

Doh!

2008-10-24T12:06:00.000-07:00

Early voting has started, and all signs point to the likelihood that this may be the presidential election with the greatest voter turnout in US history. I believe that this favors Obama, but with no basis for that belief, I'll just keep punching out this blog post.

In a recent CNN poll, 42 percent of those surveyed said they were not confident that their votes could be "accurately cast and counted." That number is up 15 percentage points from a similar poll conducted in 2004. 42 percent! Funny that our President Bush claimed that the votes which were cast for the President of Iran (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad) three years ago were done so "through an electoral process that ignores the basic requirements of democracy." On a similar note, politicians and journalists in many western countries (including the US, Germany, and Great Britain) questioned the legitimacy of the Russian Presidential election of 2008, which saw Dmitry Medvedev win with an overwhelming majority.

If almost half this country wonders whether their votes will be accurately counted, how democratic is our system?

As of Tuesday, 29 states were accepting early ballots, and election officials are reporting record turnouts. Voting problems, ranging from computer glitches to long lines, have been reported in a few states.

Let's take a look at Calvin Thomas, an 81-year-old West Virginian, who took advantage of the opportunity to vote early. Let's see if his vote was counted more democratically than if his name were say... Calvin Thomaskov or Calvin Thomasakbari.

Thomas, an American, has been voting since the 1948 presidential election, when he was only 21 years old. That's 60 years (or 15 presidential elections). He walked into his voting booth, "pushed the Democrat ticket, and it jumped to the Republican ticket for president of the United States." The machine just switched his vote.

From CNN.com on October 24, 2008:

The same thing happened to his daughter, Micki Clendenin, when she cast her ballot. In both cases, poll workers at the site had them touch the screen a few more times, and the voting machine changed their ballot to their candidate choice.

"The lady came in, and she was -- very nicely, she just said, 'it's just been doing that.' She said, 'just hit it again.' So we hit it again, and this time it did go to Obama," Clendenin said.

At this point, I have to laugh, and wonder. When she said "just hit it again," were they just voting for McCain a few more times? A couple votes for McCain... “touch the screen a few more times"… a couple more for McCain... and... there we go: ONE VOTE for Mr. Obama. NICE!

By this point, I am really laughing, because one would have to think "you can't make this stuff up!"

But, I know I have seen this somewhere before: Matt Groening and James Brooks, who invented "The Simpsons," DID MAKE THIS STUFF UP.

See below from the October 19th, 2008 episode (five days before Calvin's experience):

Homer Simpson vote Obama
by divertissonsnous

Audrey Seiler, Susan Smith redux ...

2008-10-24T10:54:00.000-07:00

Late yesterday we received word (via a massive headline on Drudge) that a woman had been attacked by a black Obama supporter because he was upset that she had a McCain bumper sticker (and that she was White ... obv). I am posting the underscaled version that was on Drudge's site last night:

The "victim" even claimed that the attacker carved a B on her face. What is so classic is that mere moments after the story went up, I received this message via Gmail from Left Wing Jumper:

3:30 PM me: http://www.thepittsburghchannel.com/news/17789356/detail.html

LWJ: seems sketchy

3:31 PM

LWJ: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Susan_Smith

me: damn that was quick

The reason I responded "damn that was quick" was not to be dismissive of his theory, but to indicate that we had both seen this story before. Audrey Seiler was the University of Wisconsin Student went missing for a few cold nights in Madison. At the time, both LWJ and I were called mysogenists and other such names when we both claimed Ms. Seiler was crying wolf. Of course, we all learned later that she had faked her own abduction, then blamed it on an unknown black assailant.

Susan Smith set the precedent of these cases in 1994 when she initially reported to police that she had been carjacked by a black man who drove away with her sons still in the car. Smith made tearful pleas on television for the rescue and return of her children. The police even put the media in a frenzy by releasing this 'sketch' of the attacker:

Of course, a few days later, Smith confessed to letting the car, with the boys inside, sink in a nearby lake.

What makes the case of the McCain worker - she is a College Republican up from Texas working in PA for the election - so funny is that a close examination of the B shows that it is backwards ... but if done in front of a mirror would look correct.

Today, less than 24 hours after the "attack" we receive word that this afternoon, a Pittsburgh police commander told the news media that the "victim" confessed to making up the story.

Too bad LWJ was not on the case, or it would have been solved 22 hours sooner. However before she recanted her statement, she did spend time with a sketch artist and rendered a few sketches of the attacker ...

She is sure it was either him

or him

or him

or him!

[UPDATE: Didn't see this last night, but apparently Senator McCain’s quest for the presidency is over, forever linked to race-baiting.]

[UPDATE #2: You gotta call it like you see it, and the RCP Blog has done just that:

Ashley Todd, the woman who told police she had been mugged by a black man who scratched the letter "B" into her face after seeing a McCain bumper sticker on her car, has now admitted she made the whole thing up, according to this report from KDKA.

What a disgrace.

This hardly ranks as one of the great racial hate crimes hoaxes of all time - Tawana Brawley, Susan Smith, and the Duke Lacrosse case were all far more egregious and damaging to the country's race relations - but it still is just a dirty and utterly irresponsible act that defies logic and deserves condemnation.

I couldn't agree more. --LWJ]

Joe Got Served

2008-10-24T06:50:00.000-07:00

I wonder if McCain would really be using Obama's encounter with Joe the Plumber -- McCain claims it was Obama who rudely shoved Joe's personal life into the spotlight when it was McCain who mentioned the plumber (not really a plumber) 21 times in the thrid debate -- if Americans could see the entire exchange between Obama and Joe (not really Joe). Joe is clearly looking to pick a fight, and Obama sits him down in a hurry. Just watch the entire clip. If Obama could spend 5 minutes with every undecided voter in America, this truly would be a landslide.

Oh wait, Obama plans to spend 30 minutes in American's living rooms next Wednesday. No wonder McCain isn't even planning on attending his own victory rally.

Back to the Future (Part I): The Economy

2008-10-23T09:55:00.000-07:00

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." -- George Santayana, poet and philosopher

Credit
... then
After the the United States recovered from a postwar recession in 1921, its economy grew at a healthy annual rate. American workers produced more goods more efficiently, and their incomes increased, if not quite so quickly as the profits born from their greater productivity.¹ Many Americans' optimism grew too: they thought that they had entered a new era of prosperity, when more Americans could afford more luxury goods and live, at least materially, better lives than ever before. So securely did they hold this belief that they accepted newly available offers of credit in order to buy what they could not afford from their own pockets. By the end of the decade Americans were living lives well-furnished with debt.² More than anything, they bought cars.³ The production, purchase, and financing of automobiles drove the perception and reality of American prosperity in the 1920s. Often, however, the ready credit of the 1920s came at a price, an annual interest rate of around 30 percent on an installment plan for a new car.⁴

... now
After the devastating attacks on 9/11, the American economy began to grow at a steady pace. Americans became the most productive workforce in the world. What initially led the economy out of the period post-terrorist attacks was the multi-brand "Keep America Rolling" campaign of U.S. automakers. This marketing strategy led to the affordability of big bulky gas-guzzling SUVs which, in turn allowed Americans to re-suburbanize. This directly lead to two outcomes: A massive increase in home prices and home values and record profits for the oil companies. While some did get financing at zero or near zero percent on their autos, a substantial number of people purchased their homes with adjustable rate mortgages and sub prime rates.

The Stock Market
... then
By 1925, Wall Street men knew, and the Wall Street Journal reported, that they were working in "the kind of market that makes for larger commissions than profits."⁵ Watching the increase in trading on the exchanges and in the borrowing to trade on the exchanges, the Federal Reserve decided to make it more expensive to borrow money.⁶ Then on October 24, 1929, Black Thursday, the market crashed. Some, like John D. Rockafeller, claimed that they would continue to buy, but by mid-November, more than a third of the stock market's value had vanished.⁷ Facing a dubious future, Americans made important decisions not to buy. Particularly, they stopped buying the expensive durable goods like cars they had learned to buy on credit.⁸

... now
By the summer of 2007 noted TV personality and investment guru Jim Cramer went on television and gave notice that a major and serious financial crises was developing. Although insiders knew for nearly a year of the pending financial crisis, the Federal Reserve continued to raise rates, making it more expensive to borrow money. Then on September 29, 2008 the DOW had its largest single day point drop in history. Some, like investor Warren Buffet espoused confidence, but many considered the damage too great. In the past year Americans had drastically cut their spending: buying less cars, and consuming less and less fuel.

¹George Soule, Prosperity Decade: From War to Depression, 1917-1929 (New York: Rinehart, 1947), 220.
²Eric Rauchway, The Great Depression & The New Deal (New York: Oxford University Press, 2008), 13.
³Martha L. Olney, Buy Now, Pay Later: Advertising, Credit, and Consumer Durables in the 1920s (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1991), 40.
⁴Ibid., 115.
⁵"Broad Street Gossip," Wall Street Journal, 1/13/1928, 2.
⁶Rauchway, 17.
⁷John Brooks, Once in Golconda: A True Drama of Wall Street (New York: Wiley Investment Classics, 1999), 119.
⁶Rauchway, 19.

Keystone Cops

2008-10-21T19:21:00.000-07:00

Fear not, what you see above is not our latest predictive model. It is the current dream scenario advanced by the McCain campaign. And I already know what Left Wing Jumper is going to say, "But Virginia is rock solid blue right now!" And that may be. But the beauty of this scenario from the McCain perspective is that it includes some padding. It allows Obama to win one of the states in play, such as Virginia or Missouri or Nevada, without winning the Electoral College.

More and more it is looking like the entire race is coming down to Pennsylvania; a situation that distinctly favors Obama. However the large Obama lead (+11, RCP) appears, it is almost entirely based on a single poll, the Morning Call tracking poll. Furthermore the poll relies on a sample of voters that has 11% more Democrats than Republicans. The problem with this is that in the most recent presidential election (2004) the party ID breakdown was 41-39 (or D+2).

What does this mean? That if the GOP gets the turnout that they had in 2004 along with a bit of Clinton backlash (see: 2008 Democratic Pennsylvania primary), the race is a two point race. In other words, well within the margin of error.

There is little question that McCain is going all-in on Pennsylvania. At least one prominent Pennsylvanian is worried.

James Carville once said, "Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in the middle." Trust me ... McCain/Palin is running very strong in Alabama.

[UPDATE: Even Politico says, "It’s an unenviable position to be in, except for one thing: Nearly everyone in a position to know thinks the race for Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes is considerably tighter than what recent polls reveal."]

Where do we stand?

2008-10-17T12:12:00.000-07:00

We are currently 18 days and four hours away from knowing who the next President of the United States will be (you can take a peek at the calender to the right to know the exact number of seconds).

At this moment this is the our best guess at the state-by-state breakdown of the race:

The one obvious thing to note is that there continues to be a lot of blue. Now even the major networks are noticing this and have begin to re-shape their election night coverage. From Politico:

Network news executives said they are preparing for an unusual Election Night challenge: How to be honest with the audience, and still keep them tuned in, if the race between John McCain and Barack Obama is effectively decided before most Americans have finished dinner. The quandary is highlighted by Virginia, a state that has not voted Democratic for president since 1964 but where Obama is now leading in polls. [Because] there is no realistic McCain electoral college strategy that does not depend on winning the Old Dominion, the networks want to be prepared for an early end to the night.

However, while polling has shown Obama up in some traditionally red states, in states such as Ohio, the Obama campaign believes victory depends on persuading more voters to support him. Furthermore, the perilous lead in Florida that Obama held the last time we mapped the race; looks to have evaporated. But new polling shows the race essentially tied in North Dakota, and very tight in West Virginia.

Based on this information, along with the sourcing we have been receiving from our contacts on the ground, we see Obama with a 288-194 lead over his rival with 56 electoral votes left undecided. Even with national polling appearing to turn his direction, to win McCain will need to capture all of the states in "too-close-to-call" and steal two of the states currently projected for Obama.

Phall Phever!

2008-10-16T06:11:00.001-07:00

I don't want to disappoint Dark Horse, but McCain obviously won the debate. Whew that's off my chest. Now some massively breaking news that somehow only our readers get first. So without further adieu ...

BREAKING NEWS!

First, researchers in Davos, Switzerland have made an incredible discovery: There is only one October. (Personally, I am stunned by this, as are, I am sure, the Chicago Cubs. I just hope Mr. McCain doesn't know this, because its probably better if he thinks they are going to "run it back" a few days after the election).

Second, "Joe the Plumber," America's newest celebrity ... NOT EVEN REGISTERED TO VOTE. Oops! (So, Mr. McCain, ahem ... why did you spend half of your allotted time in the debate last night slobbing the knob of a man who cannot even vote for you?)

Third, the election isn't over! I know if you read most websites and magazines they will tell you that the race is over. But only Karl Rove and the readers of this blog know that the election is not over.

Fourth, (and this is less about breaking news and more of my personal commentary) Obama is probably wishing that the world series had been between the Dodgers and Red Sox. Why? Because Obama purchased half-hour blocks of time on every major network for a prime-time Obama infomercial the Wednesday before the election.

The problem? Game Six (if necessary) will be delayed twenty minutes to allow for the completion of Obama's address. Think the casual undecided voters in the all-important key swing states of Pennsylvania and Florida might be a little peeved. Yep.

Who won...?

2008-10-15T20:35:00.001-07:00

I know that Official Scorer is probably going to jump on here and claim that John McCain won that debate but I can tell you right now that Barack Obama DOMINATED and sat that dude down. I was jumping out of my seat waving my "donkey towel" at the TV and yelling "C'mon Barack!" That white-haired ole' dude doesn't know nothin. John McCain needs to sit down and shut up. Go home, old man. Go home.

ps. On a total side note, my favorite part about the debates is that there are no commercials. It's sort of like soccer, without halftime!

Choose all that apply...

2008-10-15T18:42:00.000-07:00

I don't like to play "follow the leader," but I think it's about time that I did what many bloggers do, and that is make a link-filled blog post with a poll at the end. So, here goes...

So much has been made of the fact that "We don't know Barack Obama." I like doing research, so, today I set out to find out about this Bo-Raqi guy. He seems interesting. He's pretty good looking (check him out!), and seems smart (I've watched the debates). So, after hours pouring over verifiable research, here's what I found out about Barack:

#1. People often get confused and think that he is biracial. More likely, he is black, which would make him the second black president. After hours of research I discovered that a gentleman named William Jefferson Clinton (which doesn't sound black), was, in fact the first black presiden t.

#2. I discovered that Barack Obama is, most likely, a Muslim. There were hundreds of bloggers on many sites that claimed to have sensative knowledge that was proof of him being a Muslim. Many people claimed that his ties to Reverand Jeremiah Wright (who is also a Muslim) prove that he is a Muslim. Of course, other people claimed that Mother Teresa, Pope John Paul II, and Billy Graham were also Muslim, so this was inconclusive.

#3. Without a doubt, the most conclusive evidence surrounded the claim that Obama is the biggest celebrity in the world. This cannot be true. What about people like Ronaldinho, Nelson Mandella, Tiger Woods, and the yellow teletubby? All of these people, I'm sure, are bigger celebrities than Barack. There's a chance, however, that he is a European Celebrity, which might even be worse in the book of John McCain. I'll leave that up to you to decide.

#4. This is the first of this that I've heard, but it's probably true: Barack Obama cheated on his wife with Vera Baker. I know, I know. You probably think that he's a good, moral, family man, but who knows?!? The first black president wasn't all that faithful, so how much can we expect from the second?

#5. More recently, the Joe Six-packs of this great country have started an interesting rumor, one that -- surprisingly -- has some merit to it. They claim that Barack Obama is gay. Well, maybe not gay, but he would be the first gay president, just like that William Jefferson Clinton guy was the first president to say "I did not have sex with that woman," on national TV.

I also heard another claim that might be true, but just didn't meet my high standards of evidence and citable data: Obama has a problem with asian people.

#6. However, I've watched lots of police investigation-type shows, and I know that things often go deeper than you think. You can't just look at the obvious things that everyone knows (like the stuff above). After all of my extensive, scholarly research, one scarry, amazing, and distrubing thing surfaced:

Obama is not human at all. Instead, Obama is actually an Antarctican penguin, posing as a Gay-black-muslim-European Celebrity who cheats on his wife with Reading Rainbow authors and runs for President. So, all of you people who think he is any of those things READ MY BLOG: you are wrong. He is just faking you out, big time. Boo-yeah. I was right all along. I knew that dude was a penguin when I first laid eyes on him.

You don't believe me? Well, decide for yourself, but be careful and make sure you do your research. Which of the following IS true about Obama? Choose all that apply...

Online Surveys & Market Research

And the winners are...

2008-10-15T13:40:00.000-07:00

Now that the stock market has slightly rebounded. We can all laugh. Ok, so we're still down a couple trillion dollars as a nation, but nothing can lighten the mood like a few wanna-be "emo" stock-brokers. Are these guys trying out for a spot in Dashboard Confessional's next music video?

Without further ado, the winners are...

1. From NS: Alec Baldwin's cousin just found out his '30 Rock' spin off got canceled.

2. From both MR and AM: "I should have taken the blue pill."*

3. From AM: "What time is the Titanic picking us up honey?"

4. Tie! From AM: Talking to the guy behind him... "I'll trade you Martin Gramatica and Rex Grossman for a Michael Bolton "O'Canada" single."
From NS: This guy is clearly talking to coworker Milton Wadums about Milton's missing Swingline stapler.

5. From AM: "I can't believe I sharted twice in the same day"

Honorable mentions go to NS and MR for their captions to picture number 5, which was, by far, my favorite photo.

From NS: Garf in 35 years.
From MR: "Boy I look good in my red tie....'pound that.'"

*For those of you who don't know this, "I should have taken the blue pill" is a reference to the 1999 Keanu Reeves thriller The Matrix . In context, this line is hilarious.

Thank you to my three respondents. I laughed a lot.

Texas Tuesday

2008-10-14T13:05:00.000-07:00

So much is happening or has happened in the football world of the Lone Star State over the past few days that I think it deserves its own special blog post. I'll roll with the theme of the graphic to the left and break it down by the good, the bad, and the ugly.

An amazing renewal of the Red River Shootout, saw the Texas Longhorns take control of the AP Poll (and I would assume the computer rankings) and place themselves in a position to control their own destiny regarding the BCS Championship. Hat tip to Cesar Rodriguez, a phenomenal attorney in the Austin area and someone who has seen too much Longhorn bloodletting at the hands of the hated Sooners. Personally I have been a closet fan of the 'Horns since they allowed me to make about $400 on the Rose Bowl a couple years back, and it is always fun to see Bob Stoops lose.

The win also solidified Colt McCoy as a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate and it put even more emphasis on this weekend's game against the Missouri Tigers. Big-12/National Title/Bragging Rights all surely on the line Saturday night.

But all is not good in the land of Texas football. Not long after learning the fate of Tony Romo, the team learned that the NFL's hall-monitor on steroids has re-suspended Adam "Pac-Man" Jones for a period of not less than four games. That's just a brutal double whammy for a team that desperately needed some good news. However, Bill Simmons encourages Cowboys fans to look on the bright side:

"[W]e're five years away from Wade Phillips' becoming the most successful coach in college football."

The ugly involves former assistant football coach at Jim Ned High School in Tuscola. According to an indictment returned by a grand jury last Thursday, he has been charged with three counts of attempted improper relationship between educator and student, a third-degree felony punishable by two to 10 years in prison.

Apparently, Kaleb Tierce, a teacher of pre-Advanced Placement English, provided his ninth-grade class with a reading list that contained a book about a murderer who has sex with his victims' bodies. If that wasn't ugly enough, Tierce allegedly asked one girl to come to his home under a "normal pretense," then allegedly kissed her and exposed himself to her. Allegedly, he also asked another girl "what she would be willing to do for a better grade" and asked a third girl for sexual favor. The best part:

"But amid the uproar, most people in the West Texas town of 700 seemed to rally around Tierce, saying he should be reinstated because he was a great coach."

Where did Heisman candidate Colt McCoy go to school?

Jim Ned High School in Tuscola.

God bless Texas.

Mr. Erratic (Part II)

2008-10-14T10:33:00.000-07:00

Just as McCain is attempting to 'relaunch' his campaign as being more focused and ready to "fight" to the finish, Mr. Erratic shows up again.

October 7, at the second presidential debate, John McCain said, "But I'm not going to telegraph my punches, which is what Sen. Obama did. And I'm going to act responsibly, as I have acted responsibly throughout my military career and throughout my career in the United States Senate."

Yet, CNN is already reporting, more than 24 hours before tomorrow nights debate, that McCain will attack Obama with the William Ayers connection at the debate.

The comments come after Obama and Democratic VP candidate Joe Biden were sharply critical of McCain for targeting the Illinois senator over Ayers at campaign rallies, but not when the two last met for a presidential debate.

Today, during an interview with a St. Louis radio station, McCain said, "I was astonished to hear him say that he was surprised I 'didn’t have the guts' to do that, because the fact is the question didn't come up in that fashion. I think he's probably ensured it will come up this time."

Oops.

Mr. Erratic

2008-10-13T12:27:00.001-07:00

Barack Obama seems to have found his niche attack line against John McCain: Erratic. But, I'm somewhat surprised that he hasn't taken this attack even further. I'm a little under the eight-ball in terms of Obama's media campaign because I live in a decidedly un-swingstate. The only Obama ads I see are what I can find on the internet or what CNN might play during a newscast.

It seems to me that Obama could be doing an even better job of reminding voters of just how erratic McCain has been. This visual (from fivethirtyeight.com), pokes fun at the McCain "Hail Mary" stunts of this election cycle. These of course were the 'Celebrity' ads of mid-summer, the selection of Sarah Palin as running mate, and the 'suspension' of his campaign in late September.

But, the erratic behavior does not end there. Let's take a look at one week in September:

On September 16, McCain, long a champion of deregulation, said, "In my administration, we're going to hold people on Wall Street responsible."
5 days later, the tune had changed, when McCain said, "No, I think the deregulation was probably helpful to the growth of our economy."

On September 15, McCain now infamously said, "The fundamentals of the economy are strong."
The SAME DAY, his campaign released a television ad saying, "The economy is in crisis."

The next day, McCain was adamant on NBC's Today Show about the then proposed bailout of AIG: "No, I do not believe that the American taxpayer should be on the hook for AIG, and I'm glad that the Secretary Paulson is apparently taking the same line."
But, three days later, according to the LA Times: "McCain backs AIG bailout."

By September 24, it was time for McCain to throw a 'Hail Mary;' "Tomorrow morning, I will suspend my campaign and return to Washington."
The next day, however, McCain campaign attack ads criticizing Obama continued to run in key battleground states. Furthermore, campaign offices never closed, and McCain surrogates continued to appear on TV touting McCain's 'action' on the bailout plan.

On September 24, McCain also declared, "[I will not attend the debate] until we have taken action to address this crisis."
But, two days later, even without any action being taken to address the crisis, McCain agreed to attend the debate.

And they called John Kerry a flip-flopper?

Online Surveys & Market Research

Potpourri for $400, Alex

2008-10-13T06:11:00.000-07:00

I think we have tried to maintain a sense of originality on this site and make sure that out blog posts are original works rather than link or quote dumps. Some of us (Dark Horse) are better at that than others (Official Scorer). Nevertheless, there are several articles this morning that I wanted to draw your attention to.

First, Nate Silver, whom we adore at the Whistle, has a very insightful article about how McCain may try to use the new media (read: Drudge) to resurrect his campaign. I think Nate hits the nail on the head, and I think he gives a great explanation of why and how this might take shape. Obviously he is not unbiased in the endeavor, he is hoping that by calling it out, the move will appear to be just another stunt in the McCain campaign.

Second, Left Wing Jumper and I have been having a spirited argument (off-line for the benefit of our readers) about whether the polls are going to be accurate this year and whether some Bradley-type effect will be in play. This morning there is a revealing look at the effect by one of America's top pollsters, V. Lance Terrance, Jr. In his article, Terrance argues that there never was a Bradley effect, and that we are foolish to continue to believe it exists. He closes with this paragraph, although I strongly suggest reading the entire article:

The Deukmejian campaign tracking polls did not confirm any Bradley Effect and to interject this type of speculation into the 2008 presidential election is not only folly, but insulting to the political maturity of our nation's voters. To allow this theory to continue to persist anymore than 25 years is to damage our democracy, no matter who wins.

Third, Minnesota State-Moorhead, polling on behalf of the Fargo-Moorhead Forum, completed a survey showing Barack Obama leading John McCain 45 to 43 percent in North Dakota. The long and the short versions read the same: it's the economy stupid, and they trust Obama more on that subject. For an idea of how rare a Democratic win in a presidential race in North Dakota is, consider this:

Democratic presidential candidates have carried North Dakota only three times since 1916. Each Democratic victory was decisive, and two came during the Great Depression.

Dreams of Bill Ayers

2008-10-12T06:20:00.000-07:00

Based on a newly written and irrefutable piece in the latest American Thinker, it is now proven beyond any reasonable doubt, that Senator Obama did not write his own memoir, Dreams From My Father. In fact, Jack Cashill's groundbreaking work conclusively proves that unrepentant terrorist William Ayers wrote Obama's memoir.

Because of this wonderful and timely work of Pulitzer-like journalism, where Cashill cites his own book's bad writing as proof that Obama could not write a better book than he, it is now up to the readers of this blog to figure out who wrote The Audacity of Hope. (Or we could just ask Obama during the next debate ... assuming the commission on debates use the same rules as they do in Indiana's Ninth District).

Just so anyone doesn't get the wrong idea, and think that possibly Mr. Cashill, author of a book that bashes liberal thought, has some hidden agenda, let's understand that he is actually the author of a "real" book. Furthermore, just because his book is ranked behind these classics (This one, this one, and this one) on the Amazon.com bestseller list, doesn't mean that he might be upset that Obama is a better selling author than he is.

So with that settled, I would like to invite our readers to help us decide who wrote The Audacity of Hope.

Online Surveys & Market Research

Flow Rider

2008-10-11T09:45:00.000-07:00

As I posted back in August, Florida could be a nail in McCain's coffin. It is inconceivable that he can get to 270 electoral votes, after disavowing Michigan, without Florida.

But, for the first time this year, based on five consecutive polls showing McCain behind, we have Florida tipping to Obama. Not only is McCain behind in Florida, but the average of the polls taken just in October, shows Obama up by 5 points ... well beyond most margins of error. The one concern is obviously that many snowbirds, who reside in NY or NJ in the summer months, are just now coming back to Florida for the fall. They are likely seniors, a key McCain bloc, and up to this point, are likley undersampled. Whether they make up 5 percent is doubtful, but should this race tighten any more, they could be a factor.

Note: RCP avg. has Obama +7.7 ... if that holds, which we do not believe it will, this map will continue to get bluer.

Class.

2008-10-10T18:09:00.000-07:00

I don't care what anyone says, and I just wanted to post it here really quickly ... it took a lot of courage and a lot of heart to do what McCain did today. Today, he was a class act. Let there be no doubt. Sometimes it is easy to fall into the trap of hating on the opposing candidate, but it took a lot of guts to stand up to the masses in the way that the Senator from Arizona did.

Vote for Osama!

2008-10-10T13:00:00.001-07:00

The Rensselaer County (New York) official absentee ballot for 2008:

I'm just wondering how many voters of Rensselaer County - just outside of Albany - are going to vote for Osama for President. Maybe this is a "terrorist test" to see where the 'sleeper cells' are in the central part of the state. I just feel bad for that Joe Biden guy who's running for Vice President on the same ticket as a guy named Osama.

Full story here. It sounds like it was a "typo" and a "mistake."

your turn

2008-10-10T10:04:00.000-07:00

To our faithful readers, I wanted to give you a chance to "get involved."

First off, in case you didn't know, we're in an economic "crisis" The "Down Jones"has lost over 2,000 points since just a few days ago.

The only real winners, as I pointed out in my last post, might be the stock brokers who are able to pull off the best "distressed" look, and thus get their worried faces pasted all over the internet. I ask again, why should I care what these guys look like? How does seeing someone's emotional reaction to this help me to make more out of this story? How does it add any useful perspective to America's (and the world's) economic future? Of course, it doesn't.

So, since the pictures don't add anything to the story, I want to give you a chance to add a story to some of the best pictures I've seen over the last two days. All of these pictures are current (to the best of my knowledge) and have been taken directly from cnn.com, bbc.com, nyt.com, or reuters.com. Actually, Reuters had a slide show yesterday that simply showed 12 different stock-traders in various states of agony. I laughed. Several of those lucky men are featured here.

Your mission is to create the best possible captions for each of the pictures listed below. (See my post if you need an idea about what I'm talking about). Send your submissions to whistletipsgowoo@gmail.com by Tuesday, October 14. Winners will be announced shortly thereafter.

1.

2.
3.
4.
5.

Fun 'N Games (Part II)

2008-10-10T08:48:00.000-07:00

There was some confusion about the reason behind my post yesterday. So, I'll elaborate. On DailyKos there have been a series of "Candidates As" creations, which analogize each candidate to an item or person in another category. So, there is 'Candidates As Simpsons Characters:'

'Candidates As Planes:'
'Candidates as Telecoms:'

And, my personal favorite, 'Candidates as Trains:'

So, yesterday morning, I created my own 'Candidates As Cups:'

Halo players ... beware!

2008-10-09T09:58:00.001-07:00

I know we probably focus too much on national races, so I wanted to take some time to focus on a local race: Maricopa County District 1 Supervisor. I am sure, unlike me, you have no idea who the candidates for this very important office are. So I have decided to link you to a flyer comparing the candidates for the office.

Now, I am not sure if there is any polling on this one, but my guess is that incumbent Fulton Brock is ahead. That being true, it is despicable that he attacks the competition, Ed Hermes, by noting that Hermes is a:

"Skilled player of popular video game Halo. Hermes was quoted in the ASU student newspaper as saying: 'I am addicted to Halo and play almost every night.'"

Let this be a lesson to all of you "skilled players of Halo" ... it can and will be used against you should you ever try to run for public office.

My advice? Put down the Wii controller and go play some golf. That's a much more healthy activity, and it will surely make you a more acceptable political candidate.

[UPDATE: Just tracked down Mr. Hermes blog, and it appears that he does not in fact live with his parents. You can read the rest of it here.]

Fun 'N Games

2008-10-09T08:21:00.000-07:00

Who are these men?

2008-10-08T09:45:00.000-07:00

There's nothing like pictures of fear and failure to capture the public imagination. I've never seen so many nameless men find their 15 minutes of fame. Every time I click "re-load" on CNN another snapshot of a depressed, dumbstruck stock broker pops up.

What am I supposed to feel? Sad, sorry, worried? Me, I'm amused. Every time I see one of these photos, I picture lots of middle-aged men wondering around the stock market floor tugging at their ties, running their hands through their hair, trying to act as stressed-out as possible so maybe someone with a camera will catch them and they'll get their time in the lime light.

I mean, how do we even know that these are real stockbrokers? Look at the pictures below...

That first guy is playing Mahjong on his computer, and clearly he is pondering his next move.

That next dude? He just called the golf course and realized he can't book his four-some until 10am. He just doesn't know if they'll make it for the 2:30 New York Jets kick-off.

The next so-called downtrodden "stock-broker"? You think that's coffee in his styrofoam cup? Guess again... that Ice-E turned right into brain freeze, and he's wishing he had just slowed down while he was drinking...

You tell me that's the Tokyo stock market and a down-on-his luck trader? I say prove it. I bet that's just some Japaneese father who is going to miss the season premier of Desperate Housewives because his train is delayed.

That guy in the tie on the steps? That's no stock trader. He's just a Cubs fan.

So, don't be confused when you see these pictures of wanna-be e-traders pop up. Judge them for what they are... phony.

Phony, indeed.

That One.

2008-10-08T06:27:00.001-07:00

As I blogged earlier, I thought McCain won the first debate. I thought the second debate, because it wasn't a debate, was a draw. The third debate? Obama dominated it, from start to finish. He was crisp, on-point, and did everything he needed to. To use a cliched sports analogy, he let the game come to him.

The three moments that stood out for me were:

#1) A powerful, heartfelt moment...

In a country as wealthy as ours, for us to have people who are going bankrupt because they can't pay their medical bills -- for my mother to die of cancer at the age of 53 and have to spend the last months of her life in the hospital room arguing with insurance companies because they're saying that this may be a pre-existing condition and they don't have to pay her treatment, there's something fundamentally wrong about that. --Obama

#2) The best come-back of the night...

Now, Sen. McCain suggests that somehow, you know, I'm green behind the ears and, you know, I'm just spouting off, and he's somber and responsible. Sen. McCain, this is the guy who sang, "Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran," who called for the annihilation of North Korea. That I don't think is an example of "speaking softly." This is the person who, after we had -- we hadn't even finished Afghanistan, where he said, "Next up, Baghdad." -- Obama

#3) And the moment when McCain's temper finally cracked...

By the way, my friends, I know you grow a little weary with this back-and-forth. It was an energy bill on the floor of the Senate loaded down with goodies, billions for the oil companies, and it was sponsored by Bush and Cheney. You know who voted for it? You might never know. That one.

And this performance was BADLY needed, as the polls that came out today (pre-debate) show Obama's support slipping, in fairly dramatic fashion:

Rasmussen: O+6 (was O+9)
Hotline: O+1 (was O+2)
Zogby: O+2 (was O+4)
Battleground: O+4 (was O+6)

That's right, Obama's lead slipped, on average, 23% across the board. Palin is on her game and in full attack mode. Obama said he wouldn't let himself get swift-boated, but he has been silent on the Ayers thing, and I believe it's because he is going with the "ignore it" plan. That same plan cost Kerry the election.

Tom Durkin (Remix v.2.0)

2008-10-07T08:51:00.000-07:00

Barack Obama has had perhaps his strongest individual polling day of the year...

The latest polls show the following:

Missouri: Obama +3
North Carolina: Obama +6
Virginia: Obama +2 and Obama +10
Colorado: Obama +6
Nevada: Obama +4
Ohio: Obama -1
New Hampshire: Obama +13
Florida: Obama +7

It may be too early to say this, but we're only one month away, and as they say, into the final stretch of the race. I can't help but think to a particular horse race...

Load the video, scroll to minute 1:40, and imagine Tom Durkin reading below...

"Record number of negative attacks here in the election… they’re at the top of the stretch and it is John McCain who is full up… Here comes Obama under a heavy drive in battleground states, Karl Rove is there… Sarah Palin, not today! One month left, here comes Obama!! He sweeps to the lead, he’s pulling away by two… he’s pulling away by three! The Democrats and Obama have won the Presidential election and the final vote count was 364 electoral votes, he was as successful as William Clinton!!"

The Test of Champions

2008-10-07T07:45:00.001-07:00

They call the Belmont Stakes the "Test of Champions," and undoubtedly today at Belmont, it appears that the stakes are huge. But are they? Will tonight's debate really matter?

As you can see from the graph above, nearly 8 percent of voters remain undecided. That is almost twice what it was in 2004 with the same 28 days to go. In this election, the number of undecideds dropped substantially over the period of the two conventions, but has essentially tapered off since. Obama undoubtedly took most of those undecideds, which I am going to suggest are the Hillary-dems, and solidified his base. That is supported by the most recent WashPost/ABC poll in Ohio, a state where Hillary won, which indicated that Obama's supporters are nearly twice as enthusiastic as McCain's. But, as much as Howard Wolfson believes this race is over, the high number of undecided voters suggest otherwise.

And the nuggets from a Hotline/FD poll released today provide more credence of a wide open race. According to their poll of 908 likely voters, Obama leads McCain 46% to 44% with 9% undecided. Furthermore, Independent voters favor McCain on the economy by an 8 pt. margin (42-34%). So when the economy is the top issue, and McCain is favored on that subject by the group that is going to swing the economy, it means that Obama still has some voters he needs to sell himself to.

An article published in today's edition of Politico, suggests that the McCain camp will focus on people's fears that

"[Obama's plan] is dangerous to the economy. Obama is calling for higher taxes, historical spending and a huge increase in regulation that will hamper American business. Contrast that with McCain’s message of lower taxes and freezing spending. On foreign policy and national security, Obama is a risky bet in a hostile world."

The strategy for tonight?

“McCain needs to keep banging those themes over and over again, so on Election Day voters think Obama is just not ready for this. The McCain campaign needs to feed the doubt people have about Barack Obama. There is a lot of doubt out there."

The other issue is that while a visit to the RCP no-ties map suggests Obama is in a commanding position, very few of those averages actually have him hitting the 50% mark. And anytime a candidate is polling at less than 50%, it means that there are enough undecideds out there to swing the race the other direction. If Obama is going to put this race away, he can go a long way to doing so tonight, by appearing level-headed to McCain's less-than-steady leadership.

If he engages McCain, and the recent Obama taunts about McCain not looking at him suggest that he wants a staring contest, Obama may lose his footing. Now is not the time to prove your mettle, its the time to offer real solutions for a financial crisis. While it would be a half-joke to say that the first one to effectively explain the benefits of Keynesian economics, without using the words Keynes or economics, wins ... it's not that far off. The more McCain can make himself out to be a populist, the more he can siphon off those undecideds who are still hung up on Senator Obama's middle name.

The Rare WNBA Post

2008-10-06T10:44:00.001-07:00

I just wanted to post a quick shout-out to Candace Parker. It's not often that we cover women's basketball on this blog - unless of course we are making fun of it - but I though this was deserving of at least a mention.

In 2008, Candace Parker:

- Won the 2008 Women's John R. Wooden Award, honoring the best women's college basketball player in the country.
- Led the University of Tennessee Lady Vols to their second consecutive national championship.
- Was named Most Outstanding Player at the 2008 Women's Final Four.
- Was the overall #1 draft pick in the WNBA.
- Led Team USA to a gold medal in Women's Basketball in the Beijing Olympics.
- Was the 2008 WNBA Rookie of the Year.
- Was the 2008 WNBA MVP.

And what have YOU done lately?

John McCain's Temper

2008-10-04T11:55:00.001-07:00

Back in February, when John McCain became the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party, my boss told be not to worry about McCain because he had an Achilles Heel (If you don't know what it menas, whatever you do, DON'T ask Sarah Palin). She claimed that his inability to keep his temper in check would lead to his inevitable downfall. McCain's temper has been well documented in the past. But for the most part, in this election, McCain has been able to keep his temper in check.

Yet, as the race has swung in Obama's direction in the past 3 weeks, there are signs that his ability to keep his temper at bay is waning. First, during the Presidential debate, McCain's obvious contempt for Obama was in full effect as he refused to even look at his opponent. McCain showed moments of frustration and contemption as Obama plaed the part of 'Mr. Cool.' Then, this week, just prior to the vote on the Bailout Bill, Obama approached McCain on the Senate floor. CQ has the details:

Obama crossed over into enemy territory.
He walked over to where McCain was chatting with Republican Sen. Mel Martinez of Florida and Independent Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut. And he stretched out his arm and offered his hand to McCain.

McCain shook it, but with a “go away” look that no one could miss. He tried his best not to even look at Obama.

Finally, with a tight smile, McCain managed a greeting: “Good to see you.”

So, what's going on here? Is McCain genuinely mad at Obama? Is he just acting like a sore loser?

This morning, thanks to Talking Points Memo, we may have gotten some answers. Back in Feburary, 2006, when Obama was a rising star in the Democratic Party and (at that time) a potential vice-presidential candidate in 2008, Obama and McCain exchanged a series of testy letters. Although you are free to read the letters for yourself, it seems Obama's gracious and congenial (or, in the least, non-offensive) entreat was met with something just above sheer disdain from Senator McCain:

Senator Lieberman and I, and many other members of this body, hope to exceed the public's low expectations. We view this as an opportunity to bring transparency and accountability to the Congress, and, most importantly, to show the public that both parties will work together to address our failings.

As I noted, I initially believed you shared that goal. But I understand how important the opportunity to lead your party's effort to exploit this issue must seem to a freshman Senator, and I hold no hard feelings over your earlier disingenuousness. Again, I have been around long enough to appreciate that in politics the public interest isn't always a priority for every one of us. Good luck to you, Senator.

At the time, Talking Point Memo's John Marshall gave, what is in hindsight, an extremely clairvoyant analysis of the exchange (see here and here):

Wantin' to be president can go to a guy's head.
...
Obama is a rising star among the Democrats. Republicans want to lay a backstory for feature criticisms and character attacks against him. So, for instance, if Obama is the vice presidential candidate in 2008, they want to have a history of attacks on him banked, ones that allege he's a liar, or too partisan, or untrustworthy, whatever. It doesn't even really matter. What matters is that there already be an established history of them. Point being, that in early 2008, they want to be able to simply refer back to Obama's 'character issue', the questions about his honesty, etc. rather than have to make the case on its merits.
That's not surprising. One only needs to think back to the Gore story, etc.

What shouldn't be missed here, though, is that Sen. McCain is quite consciously and deliberately making himself a part of this. Why? Simple. Because he needs to get right with the GOP establishment in DC. (Indeed, he probably also wants to be the future beneficiary of the sliming.) Being loved by moderates and progressives doesn't cut it for getting the Republican presidential nomination in 2008.

Don't miss why he's doing this. It's the roll-out of the slime Obama campaign. And he's leading the charge.

McCain has another month to keep it in check, but the worse things get for his campaign, the more likely we can expect to see a blowup.

The following are some fun videos related to McCain's temper.

Field Day!

2008-10-03T09:44:00.000-07:00

There are pundits who are calling last night a victory for Sarah Palin. It's tough for me to disagree considering she did "crush" expectations. There were no long pauses or embarrassing gaffes -- unless of course you consider that she thought the current lead general in Afghanistan was this guy to be a gaffe -- and she stood toe-to-toe with Ol' Joe. But, this is exactly what I predicted on this blog yesterday. I never expected her to wilt under the spotlight. I didn't expect her to thrive, either, but I didn't tune in last night expecting to see a train wreck.

Sarah Palin SHOULD get some kind of award for her performance last night. Just like when I was in elementary school and we had "Field Day" EVERYONE got some kind of award. Even in the "Long Run" (I'm picturing about a 800 meter event) the fat girl that couldn't finish got a ribbon. Why? Because we didn't want anyone to feel bad. At least they tried. At least they PARTICIPATED.

On the day after the debate, however, I'm hesitant even to bestow Sarah Palin with such an honor. The Governor of the state closest to Russia and Santa Clause didn't participate in the debate last night. She didn't answer the questions and even told the moderator that she was only going to answer the questions when she wanted to. Palin didn't know McCain's record - Biden did, but Palin didn't - didn't know one issue where she is different than the Bush Administration, couldn't think of one Achilles Heel that she suffers from (does she know what the term means?), and couldn't name one mistake she's ever made. From her perspective, she's been perfect.

What bothered me is not her complete lack of knowledge of any important issue -- except maybe the fact that Alaska has something to do with energy and reducing taxes is tantamount to putting the economy into a microwave ("He's Heating UP!") -- but her smugness in it all. In Palin's mind it's better to sound like you just got your G.E.D. than to act knowledgeable on the issues. Her failure to answer the questions as presented was probably frustrating to both Biden and moderator Gwen Ifel. How can you have a debate when one of the two parties refuses to participate?

What is more terrifying, however, is to think what kind of world leader would Palin really be. Let's say that she is meeting with Canada's Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Can we imagine the conversation?

Harper: What are your thoughts on the significant changes to NAFTA that the Democratic Congress is proposing in order to protect workers in America.
Palin: That's interesting. Have you heard that I cut taxes while I was mayor of Wasilla?
Harper: No, Mrs. Palin. I was talking about NAFTA. The North American Free Trade Agreement. There is some concern that Democrats are pushing for a renegotiation of NAFTA. Are you and Mr. McCain going to cave to such pressure?
Palin: Energy! Alaska! Pipeline! I know ENERGY!

So, the participation award for last night goes to Biden alone. He didn't win, but only because he was the only competitor.

Energy Queen

2008-10-02T19:56:00.000-07:00

It's too bad I didn't have "Energy" on the list (neither did Palin Bingo), but Palin's speech/debate featured the words:

Privilege - 2
Reform - 8
Bi-Partisan/Partisanship - 13
Country First - 2
Greatest - 3
Maverick - 8

Lopsided Map

2008-10-02T12:14:00.000-07:00

Based on a flurry of new polls, the map you see above (and now on the right side of the page), is substantially different from the one that it replaced. Additionally, the fact that McCain is pulling out of Michigan, indicates that he does not believe it to be really in play. So what "steal" states does McCain have a shot in? The bottom line is: Not many.

McCain very well could win New Hampshire, a state that Kerry won and that Obama lost to Clinton in the primary. The problem is that New Hampshire is only worth 4 electoral votes. As you can see from the above map, Obama has leads of five or more points in states worth 269 electoral votes. He needs only to pick up ONE more state and he wins the election. Two or three more, and it begins to border on a landslide.

There is little chance he is going to somehow win Wisconsin (where he reportedly put his Michigan staffers) but lose Ohio. That theory is just nonsensical. What makes more sense is that the mid-west is a (to use Palin's word) microcosm of the country, and that he will do well in OH, PA, IN, WI, etc. when his national numbers are good. The Southwest however is different enough on a state-by state basis that he would probably do well to focus there.

Of the four states bordering Arizona, McCain is losing by substantial margins in California and New Mexico, and is deadlocked with Obama in Nevada. He is winning the LDS-encrusted Utah. By keeping the focus on Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, McCain can centralize his message to a type of western maverick that has been the centerpiece of his campign, and then win the election if everything else goes right.

McCain loves the idea of "new clear" power and yet he is still leading in Nevada. They like his Maverick image. McCain is one of the few Republicans who has a track record of supporting efforts to curb global warming. This should play well in Colorado. And the mere fact that McCain was up front in the fight for immigration reform should play well in New Mexico.

Each of those states has a unique play for McCain in ways that I suspect the flyover/rustbelt/midwestern states do not.

[UPDATE: From the McCain campaign: "Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) now must win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota in order to get enough electoral votes to win the presidency." This is stunning. To have that type of tacit admission that the campaign is not going well, and that you NEED to steal a state to even have a chance (would put him 10 shy of the 270 electoral votes he needs to win), is a precarious position. I promise we will post more on this after the debate.]

St. Louis Smack Down?

2008-10-02T09:02:00.000-07:00

With polls showing Obama widening his lead as we enter the top of the stretch, and threatening to turn this race into a runaway, all eyes tonight turn to Saint Lou-eh. The "gateway to the west" has fallen on tough times, it seems. The city, which used to be home to Super Bowl Bling, the King, and Midwest Swing, hopes to put on a show for America and recapture some of its midwest swagger. A poll released yesterday that shows Obama leading in the Show Me State should add intrigue an interest to a debate that already has plenty of it.

Sarah Palin's performance on the CBS evening news series with Katie "Tim Russert" Couric, has been earth-shattering for all of the wrong reasons. But, with two days of Debate Boot Camp at Papa McCain's ranch in Arizona, Sarah could be rearing to go. The advance scouts are claiming that Pailin will come out swinging at Biden and more importantly, at Obama. She's at her best when she's talking about social issues and Obama's record as America's "Most Liberal Senator." It's not going to take much for Palin to exceed expectations, and if she can stick to the basic talking points, she could "win" the debate even if she is worse than Dan Quayle.

I expect her to do well. Sure, she's not going to be 'better' than Biden. And of course she's going to stick mostly to rehearsed one-liners and fall back phrases such as "These great Unites States of America," and "If I'm so blessed as to be elected Vice-President." But, as Palin pointed out so eloquently earlier this week, Biden has been giving specches since she was in second grade, so he's expected to dominate her in this type of head-to-head forum. Furthremore, baring a complete gaffe, the news will be that she DIDN'T make a gaffe, which again means that she will have exceeded expectations.

I don't forsee a smackdown, but I also don't see how tonight's debate will turn the tide for the McCain campaign. Palin's favorability rankings are tanking, especially among moderate women. Sure she can fire up the base, but she's already done that. She does little to pick voters from the middle, while Obama seems to be grabbing these voters by the handful these days. If Biden stays on message tonight, the sheer fact that it's Sarah Palin he's debating -- and not say, an econmic expert such as Mitt Romney -- the debate will be a net win for Team Obama.

Hat Tip Thursday

2008-10-02T06:18:00.001-07:00

Belated tip of the cap to the University of Mississippi. Forty-six years ago yesterday, James Meredith became the first black student at the University of Mississippi. That same year, when the eyes of a nation were thrust upon the school known as "Ole Miss" in Oxford, Mississippi their all-white football team went undefeated and won a national championship. It would be their last.

Flash forward to last Friday. With McCain's debate status in doubt, the school was potentially facing the most embarrassing moment on the national stage since Governor Ross Barnett ordered the guards to prohibit Mr. Meredith from entering the university. But McCain came, the debate was a success for the school, and forty-six years after the school enrolled its first Black student, an African-American debated a white man with the Presidency of the United States at stake. Could it get any better? Yep. Hours later, the Rebels went into the Swamp and beat #4 ranked Florida, 31-30. All in all, a damn nice week for the school.

Tip of the cap to Barack Obama's White Sox.

Tip of the cap to A.J. Pierzynski. All that peroxide and you still held onto the ball.

Tip of the cap to Leslie A. Wars. Are you kidding me? This woman (or angel) somehow singlehandedly registered 1,136 new voters in Pennsylvania, with a week still to go. Whats more amazing? Before this year she had never even voted.

Tip of the cap to Nate Silver. For two things.
First, for pointing out what many of us have already known for a long time, that RealClearPolitics is a printing press away from being the printed arm of "Fixed"/Faux News.
And second, for taking something that you are passionate about and turning it into a career. Well-played sir.

And last, but not least, tip of the cap to my wife. 3 years.

2008-10-01T20:04:00.000-07:00

Bad case of "had it coming..."

2008-10-01T06:28:00.000-07:00

...in the words of my good friend "Drew."

I think I speak for many of us when I say I wasn't too surprised by the outcome of last night's game:

Twins get good starting pitching.
Twins can't come up with a clutch hit.
White Sox hit home run.

Fairly predictable if you ask me.

Now, you can call me a Negative Nancy if you want to, but the numbers speak for themselves... The Twins didn't really deserve to be in the playoffs. The finished the season by going 11-15 in the month of September. Here are just a few things to chew on during the off season:

The Twins were out homered during the month of September 43-13. Opponents had 30 more homeruns than we did! It's tough to win games when you are letting up 1.65 long balls per game and are hitting 0.5 dingers yourself.

Waaaaaitttt a minute, I can hear you saying. That's not the Twins style of baseball. They don't hit for power. They're the piranhas... they scrap together runs with timely hits and smart baserunning.

Well, then, think about this: During the month of September, the Twins, as a team, left 198 men on base at the end of an inning. 198 homeboys just chilling out there, less than 270 feet from home saying "What's up dude?" 198!! THAT'S ALMOST 8 RUNNERS LEFT ON BASE PER GAME. You may be thinking that's not very much... I bet those big boppers on the other teams left a lot more men on base...

Not only were the Twins getting outhomered by 30, opponents left only 169 men on base during that same span, or 29 fewer men left on base. In other words, the Twins were hitting, on average, one fewer big bomb per game, and leaving one more man on base per game, than their opponent.

Indeed, over the course of the season, the Twins finished with the best team batting average with men on base -- by a long shot. But, they got cold during the month of September, and certainly couldn't heat up in the frigid Lake Michigan air last night.

Throughout the year, I talked with my brothers about the Twins poor chances in the playoffs; in a best-of-five series, a team with homerun hitters needs just a few guys to get hot. A team like the Twins needs their whole team to be firing to win 3 out of 5 games. That situation is magnified significantly in a one game "all-or-nothing" series like last night. The White Sox need just ONE PLAYER to get hot, for ONE PITCH -- which they got, in the form of a 461-foot scud missle off the bat of Jim Thome. The Twins, alas, needed several players to get going for even one run to cross the plate, which they didn't get, leading to the tenth time they were shut out this season.

I'm disappointed today, because I wanted the Twins to do better, and I definitely didn't want the Trash Sox in the post season. Still, you can't say that I didn't see it coming.

So who won?

2008-09-27T06:35:00.000-07:00

I have spent the morning scouring the media reports of the debate along with the major columnist's reactions. The general consensus is this: That among the writers, McCain won, if only be a small margin. Among the people, according to the three main polls conducted on the event, Obama won handily. The media thought it was one of the best presidential debates in may election cycles, the population as a wholes, less so.

Who do I think won? You win a debate by delivering one-liners, and I thought McCain had more of them. You also win a debate by memorable exchanges, and Obama's "John, you were wrong" exchange was probably the best of the night.

The debate, which focused heavily on foreign affairs, may have actually confused viewers and listeners. Foreign policy is not a particularly strong subject in a country where many citizens have trouble locating countries like Georgia or Azerbaijan on a map. In a way, the debate’s omission of many polarizing domestic issues like abortion, gay marriage and immigration may have served to calm the race.

Due, perhaps, to the lack of polarizing issues, both candidates seemed to develop their own, broader personalities on-screen. The depth of the debate led to a deeper understanding of each candidate’s individual character: Obama was no longer the ‘celebrity’ or novelty because of his race, and McCain was no longer, well, McBush.

Based on projected ratings that are supposed to be stratospheric, along with the general sense that no one lost it, we'll call the debate: a draw

[UPDATE: See below, Obama's camp is playing up the polling results, while McCain is playing up Obama's responses]

Some Friday Afternoon Debate Fun

2008-09-26T12:44:00.000-07:00

At Mondale's expense ...

And at Quayle's expense ...

Puckett, Gomez, and Game 7

2008-09-26T09:59:00.000-07:00

If you are, like me, one for analogies... try this:

Three days ago, the twins started their "playoff series" against the Chicago White Sox. Given the importance of the "series," it was, of course, a 7-game series. By virtue of their 2.5 game lead with just 6 to go, let's say the White Sox were up 3-0. The Twins had their backs against the wall and couldn't lose.

"Game 4," on Tuesday, saw an offensive explosion and a great pitching performance from Scott Baker. Twins win easily, still down 3-1 in the "series."

"Game 5," on Wednesday was a true game 5 nail-biter. The Twins led early and relied on an oft-shaky bullpen to close the deal and keep their hopes alive. The Twins, still down 3-2, were just setting up the "Game 6" drama which I will never, ever, forget.

As you can see in the picture above, we sat lower deck down the third base line, and joined nearly 50,000 other crazy, raving, adrenaline filled fans to cheer on the hometown boys (they're filled to the rafters in the upper deck at the dome!). It's not often that you get to see Game 6 of a playoff series when it's make or break time...

In 1991, a certain Twins' centerfielder who was a barrel of monkeys to watch and full of love for the game, put the Twins on his back for Game 6 of a crucial series when they were also down 3-2. On that night, Kirby Puckett stole the hearts of kids from Burnsville to Bimidji, from Beckett to Brainard -- he made a great catch and hit a homerun to score one of the most dramatic wins in Twins history.

Last night, a different Twins' centerfielder (also a barrel of monkeys to watch and full of love for the game) put the Twins on his back in this "Game 6," and played the game of his life. Go-Go Gomez, a fan favorite, took my breath away and nearly brought tears to my eyes as he flew from first to home in the bottom of the eighth to tie the game. He finished the game with four hits -- including two triples -- and, of course, an unbelieveable catch. What else would you expect from the Twins CF in a crucial game 6?

With their win last night, the Twins have essentially tied the series with the White Sox at 3-3. "Game 7" will be drawn out -- just like it was in 1991. 9 frames will not be enough. We will have to play extra innings (7 or 8 games) to determine the winner of this Game 7. If history tells us anything, though, it's to never count out the Twins.

Last night was a game that will stick with me for as long as I live. To be there, and feel the energy in that dome helps you to realize why they Twins are 52-26 with the "dome-field advantage." I went crazy, I went bonkers, I nearly lost it when Alexi Cassila won it in the 10th. Thanks to the Twins for reminding me why I love them so much.

In the unforgettable words of Jack Buck, "We'll see you tomorrow night!"