Derby Pick, 2009

History:

2000, Fusaichi Pegasus, Win, $6.60
2001, Monarchos, Win, $23.00
2002, Medaglia D’Oro, 4th
2003, Empire Maker, 2nd
2004, Smarty Jones, Win, $10.20
2005, Bellamy Road, 7th
2006, Sweetnorthernsaint, 7th
2007, Street Sense, Win, $11.80, Total Profit: $390.90 (1 exacta, 3 trifectas)
2008, Big Brown, Win, $6.80, Total Profit: $1,754.00 (9 exactas, 1 trifecta)


This is the third Derby write-up I have had to do knowing that my grandfather will never read it. Having him call and congratulate me after picking Monarchos was one of the happiest moments of my life. I didn’t get to spend a lot of time handicapping or going to races with him since I grew up in Minnesota and he lived in California, but I have so many memories of us together at Canterbury or Santa Anita. As always, this is for you Poppa Bob.

Between 1930 and 1997 no horse with a Dosage Index of greater than 4.00 won the Kentucky Derby. For 67 years horseplayers had a hard and fast rule by which they could begin to eliminate Derby contenders. But in 1998, Real Quiet, as leg weary as he was, crossed the line first in the Derby, prompting his trainer Bob Baffert to say, “Where are those Dosage boys now?”
Something else changed the face of Derby handicapping the next year: the speed figure. Sent off at 31-1 Charismatic stormed home, blowing the toteboard to Baltimore, and in the process proving the importance of speed figures in the Derby. Never again would the horse with the best speed last out go off at such a high price … or so I thought.
Then in 2000, the public broke a trend that had stood for 21 years; when Fusaichi Pegasus paid $6.60 to win he became the first favorite to do so since Spectacular Bid. The public has used speed figures to become better handicappers: The favorite not only came home first in 2000, but also in 2004, 2007 and 2008.
Even those favorites had to overcome serious hurdles. In 2004, Smarty Jones became the first undefeated Derby winner since Seattle Slew in 1977. In 2007, Street Sense became the first Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Champion to ever capture the roses. And in 2008, Big Brown became the first Derby winner to come off only three career starts in 93 years. Oh, and let’s not forget Barbaro winning off of five weeks rest for the first time since Needles 50 years prior.
So in the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby, the current renewal having been described by noted columnist Steve Haskin as “Without a doubt the most difficult Derby I have ever tried to figure out,” are there any rules which we can rely upon?


Since 1998 (or before) …

1. Every winner has finished in the money or within 3 lengths of the winner in their final prep.

(20) Flying Private: It wouldn’t be a Derby unless D. Wayne Lukas had his token starter. 2002 was the last time he had a legitimate entry, and while this one does have some speed and at least one good race, there is no reason to expect the type of forward move that would get him into the mix here.

(19) Atomic Rain: One of two in here that are sent forth by the Hall/Breeen connections, and this one is decidedly the lesser of the two. Obviously a nice move forward in last but everyone moved forward in that one and you’d need to go back to the Remsen back in November to find a good race. Still, some to like about this one … 4 races at 1 1/8 miles, excuses in most of them, and a very nice work on the 28th. Personally doubt he moves up too much off of his Remsen speed figure and that won’t be good enough here. One to watch in the Belmont.

(18) Mine That Bird: A monster in Canada as a juvenile, dominated all-comers and relished the synth. Unfortunately he was never very fast and ran wide and finished last when coming south for the BC juvenile. Truly no improvement at age 3, as he had two slow efforts in New Mexico on dirt, losing to horses that were only mediocre. Nice story that he was a $10,000 auction purchase and has returned $374k to his owners, but with connections that have only won one race in all of 2009, I am looking else ware.

(17) Nowhere to Hide: Distinction of being the horse that drew in when Canterbury’s own Win Willy scratched, and there was good reason this one was outside looking in. No excuse in last three races verses foes that are in here and has only a maiden win to his credit. Must respect that Zito trains but slow times and a history of hanging gives me no reason to expect anything different on Saturday.

(16) Join in the Dance: The clear pace in here and drawing inside Regal Ransom and I Want Revenge means “go.” No wins above five and a half furlongs and that was only done with the help of a race originally carded for turf. On the plus side it is Pletcher and he will have the rail and “catch me if you can” has worked in the Derby before. But his top Beyer of 90 makes that unlikely. Not impressed.


2. Every winner recorded a Beyer speed figure of at least 86 in their last winning effort prior to the Derby (if recorded).

(15) Summer Bird: A wonderful move forward in his last and was very rapidsly gaining on Papa Clem in Arkansas. No races at two and tending to fall way back can’t help as well as the slow work on April 24th do little to inspire confidence in another big leap. Is improving at the right time, and this April foal has license to get better but my sense is too much too soon. Look for him this summer.

(14) West Side Bernie: One of several who showed dramatic improvement in the Wood. He finished second to I Want Revenge but was never going to catch him. He has the benefit of a graded win at two, a group of solid, if not good, races where he got checks in graded stakes at 3, and a spot in the Derby superfecta wouldn’t baffle me, but one of a bunch who will be running late, and hard to imagine the one hole won’t put him behind a wall of horses.

3. No winner has ever entered the Derby having never been the favorite in any previous race.

(13) Papa Clem: My twitter feed indicates that he just worked three furlongs this morning, which does little to satisfy my issues after the slow 7f work on the 25th. Solid score in Arkansas Derby and clearly prefers dirt, which is a huge advantage over many in here. Loss to Fresian Fire was in the slop at the Fair Grounds and loss to Pioneerof was on the synth in California, so those do nothing to suggest he doesn’t fit here. My problem is he looked all out to get by Old Fashioned and has improved so much since 2 that another forward move here seems highly unlikely, and that is probably needed to win here.

(12) Mr. Hot Stuff: One of 3 WinStar runners and this one gets Valezquez. Will be absolutely flying late and if he can get a clean trip, which is doubtful, he can certainly hit the board. His maiden win was simply amazing and a pace analysis of that indicates he could run under two minutes for 10 panels with a perfect trip. Out of Tiznow (the only two-time BC Classic winner), he is bred to run farther, and if he gets a pace to run at he could be dangerous. However, the lack of dirt races and the fact that he didn’t win at two give me a reason to pass here.

4. Every winner has won on dirt prior to the Derby

(11) Advice: Probably the slowest horse in the field and needed a miracle ride by top jock Gomez to punch his ticket with Lexington win at 16-1. Gomez departs and so does the synthetic surface he prefers. His lone dirt try resulted in a 77 Beyer and that was with blinkers. Pluses include Pletcher and a nice 4f work on the 27th but that only indicates to me that this horse is better suited for the fake stuff. Not today.

(10) Hold Me Back: Two solid races in Kentucky in which he recorded nice figures for synthetic. Sire was a gutsy Tiznow away from BC Classic over the surface and distance, so he should get 10 furlongs, and Desormeaux has been here before (’08, ’00, ’98). Not sure what excuse he had for finishing 14 lengths back in a drubbing his only dirt race, but Mott has him here because he fits, and tossing this one isn’t easy. Our first of several synthetic conundrums.

(9) Chocolate Candy: Without question the best bred horse in the race and a 5 furlong work that does nothing but confirm the breeding for me. Has done everything asked and lost by only a length when compromised by a slow pace in the Santa Anita Derby, 3rd dam was dam to Affirmed, she was bred back to arch-foe Alydarm and then that offspring was bred to Seattle Slew. Which brings us to his dam, who was bred to Candy Ride, responsible for winning the greatest Pacific Classic ever easily handling 10f and finishing in under 2:00. I have no doubts he can get the trip and should love both the distance and the faster fractions of the Derby. His Beyers are slow, but that could be a product of the synth, and looking at his pace figures he looks a lot better. He is one that I would say you must use in all exoctics.

(8) Pioneerof the Nile: I am writing his profile first this year, and for good reason. He is this year’s quintessential poster child of everything that’s difficult about handicapping in the synthetic era. Was this Derby being contested in the mid-1990s, we would see an entirely different tote board on Saturday. Having swept the major California preps and vanquished such also-rans as Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy, Mr. Hot Stuff, and likely favorite I Want Revenge, the Bob Baffert-trained Pioneerof would come into the Derby as a heavy favorite, possibly close to even money. Instead, he will enter the Derby with a 4-1 ML and might go off as the fourth wagering option. Why? Because he has never raced over traditional dirt, instead winning the type of slow, quirky races that synthetic surfaces produce. Visually his turn of foot is devastating, but it’s the kind of move that is better suited to turf racing, and many would argue that his pedigree is oriented to grass racing. He, more than any other horse in the race, is the defining key to wagering success on Saturday. Either you believe he will move forward in speed when he hits dirt and are rewarded at the mutual windows, or you believe that he isn’t fast enough to compete with these and look else ware for value. Your opinion of him most likely defines your opinion of the entire race. Personally, I think he is a turf horse who is going to face a rude awakening when he discovers what real pace is all about. But since the Baffert-Gomez combination wins nearly 50% of their races and hit the board a whopping 88% of the time, it’s also very likely I will be proven wrong. Lastly, referencing a point I made during the introduction, Baffert horses should never be ignored. In 2002, I successfully talked my father out of betting on War Emblem at 23-1. He thanks me for my prescience regularly.

5. No winner ever finished worse than 4th in either of his last two prep races.

(7) General Quarters: The feel-good story of the Derby; a former high school principal took out a trainer’s license and claimed a horse for $20,000. That horse has gone on to win $641,000, captures the Bluegrass Stakes, and is now in the Derby. He is the only horse in owner/trainer Thomas McCarthy’s stable. He did run fast enough to win in Tampa and has a win over the Churchill strip so those questions are answered. Issues do arise however, when you look at his history of coming up short and following big efforts with clunkers. Leparoux is solid, and he is only one of three G1 winners in the field, but aside from synth score and Tampa win, there is little to like here and besides, 7 horse exacta boxes are way too expensive.

6. No winner has ever gone on to win after dropping more than 9 Beyer points in his last two starts

(6) I Want Revenge: Bring out the sharp knives because the cuts get much tougher here. Dominating score on the inner dirt in New York looks even more impressive when the third place finisher in that one went on to absolutely crush in the Withers. Breathtaking win in the Wood completed the dirt transition, as he also escaped Pioneerof by heading east. His four furlong workout on April 28th has everyone buzzing and he will be the betting favorite. My history of picking the favorite (FuPeg, Empire, Smarty, Bellamy Road, etc.) and his top figure make me question why I would hesitate to go this direction, but I will make my case: Horses often draw off to win by large margins and with big numbers on the Aqueduct inner dirt track and then fail to replicate those feats later. Furthermore, the Wood numbers are hard to believe since everyone moved forward in that race. He looked out of his league vs. Pioneerof and Papa Clem in California and even if you excuse that in the case of the synthm then must you also believe Pioneerof is worth too? Will have both Dunkirk and Pioneerof on his shoulder and the Churchill homestretch will not be as helpful as the Aqueduct inner dirt. At 3-1 in a twenty horse field I’ll look elseware.

7. Every winner (since 1882) has raced at age two.

(5) Dunkirk: 108 Beyer. $3.7 million yearling. Kentucky Oaks-winning dam. A mile and an eighth in a mind-blowing sub-1:48. This little guy, and he is very small, has everything you’d want to see as a Derby horse. And yet lacks the one thing that has been required since 1882: a start as a juvenile. Over 100 horses have tried to win the Derby without starting at two. Since 1953, only six have even hit the board. A perfect race would mean sitting outside I Want Revenge and whatever two or three horses are contesting the lead, moving forward on the turn, and then taking over mid-stretch. Perfect races only happen in the Derby once every hundred years, and unfortunately, Mike Smith and Giacomo used that up. He is certainly fast enough, will likely get the needed pace, and so it’s a matter of whether he can find room. Gomez went to Pioneerof, so I guess if you bet this horse your fate lies with Prado. Your call.

8. Every winner has raced in North America at age three.

(4) Regal Ransom/(3) Desert Party: These two traded races in the desert with Desert Party winning the first two and Regal Ransom taking the third. The pair were quality horses before they left, with Desert Party winning the Sanford on a sealed muddy track and ‘Ransom winning a maiden at Saratoga with a blistering 93 speed figure. Ransom is bred to be a miler, but Distorted Humors have proven they can go long (see: Funny Cide). Desert Party is bred to easily get the Derby distance and he was within two pounds of being weighted high enough to be a Dual Qualifier. But we are left not knowing what they have done since they left America last fall, and have no reason they had any type of real competition this year. The magic of You Tube gives us the chance to view their races, and they both look very good. I am especially excited by their impressive five furlong br3eezes on the 25th. Based on the results of the UAE Derby and Alan Garcia’s decision to stick with Regal Ransom, I am sure that he will be firing from the start planning to rate off of only Join in the Dance. If the fractions are slow, expect Regal Ransom to be right there at the end, giving the Sheiks their best finish ever. If the fractions are fast, which they certainly might be based on the draw, expect Desert Party to utilize a similar trip that Big Brown took last year, loping along on the outside of the pack before rallying home in the lane. Of all the horses that have come from Dubai, these two are the most seasoned and the best prepared to take the roses. Neither is as talented as Worldly Manner or Street Cry, but they are considerably better prepared, and I am truly expecting that one of them ends up in the exacta.

9. Every winner has prepped at 9 furlongs; No winner has won after a 7 week layoff

(2) Fresian Fire: Depending on your viewpoint the Derby has been either very kind or very unkind to Larry Jones. He has only ever had two Derby starters. Both finished second. In 2007, he saddled Hard Spun, who worked in :57 and change a week before taking the Derby field on a ride that was only ended when Calvin Borel somehow found a seam on the rail and got eventual winner Street Sense to the front. Then last year Jones sent the talented filly Eight Belles to the post against the boys. She more than accounted for herself, dispatching 18 others before failing to catch Big Brown. Unfortunately she shattered both ankles during the stretch drive and had to be destroyed. This took a massive toll on Larry Jones and he announced that 2009 would be his last year as a trainer. Fresian Fire is his current charge and he brings that horse into the Derby this year after a 7 week layoff, something that has never been successful before. He also worked ‘Fire in :57 and change, a time similar to that of Hard Spun, but a time that is being questioned by the clockers as too fast. Did the horse waste too much of himself in that work? Will he be rank for the Derby? These are the types of questions Jones has been facing all week. Furthermore by stopping on ‘Fire after the Louisiana Derby, Jones ensured that his colt would never have a race longer than a mile and a sixteenth, which means that he will attempt to win a race 3/16 of a mile longer than he has ever run. ‘Fire has never run particularly fast, and his one big race, in which he received a Beyer of 104 and defeated Papa Clem, was done over a wet track. The fact that he worked in :57, that they chose post 6, and that it could be sloppy on Saturday mean it is very likely this guy will be amongst the leaders as they hit the clubhouse turn. A son of A.P. Indy he should have no problems getting the mile and a quarter if he is in good enough shape. Without a race in 7 weeks that is the question. Bottom line is this: he will be there at the top of the stretch, a place where nearly every Derby winner originates. A logical top choice, but I am making him my number two.

The Pick

(1) Musket Man: The only horse to survive all 9 rules, Musket Man has done everything right on his way to the Derby. He won at first asking as a juvy, scoring over a competitive maiden field at Belmont, and then took home an allowance race in Philly three weeks later. He was then sent down to Florida where he took two of the three big Tampa stakes for three year olds and impressively caught Join in the Dance at the wire in the Tampa Bay Derby. The lost to General Quarters is his only blemish and ‘Quarters ran out of his mind that day. Obviously his detractors will point to the sire and say that Yonaguska can never get a Derby winner but there are plenty of sires (Distorted Humor, Elusive Quality, etc.) that used to fall into that category. His dosage fits (4.00) and his Thorograph figure in his last was a -.75 which makes him just as fast as anyone in here except ‘Revenge. The mere fact that he was even nominated means Derby was on the minds of his connections and what has he done to deter them from that goal? He has absolute push button speed and can rate beautifully and watching that Illinois Derby makes me believe he has finally put it all together. I almost always pick either the favorite or the horse with the highest Beyer, and unlike Andy, the namesake of the speed figures upon which I usually rely, I don’t believe this to be a one horse race. If I Want Revenge beats me, so be it. But I just don’t think he’s in the same class as Street Sense or Big Brown, and thus I can’t take 3-1.

Derby Plays 08

Lest anyone forget...