Florida?

There is a very interesting take on fivethirtyeight.com about why HRC would make a good choice for VP. I have been saying that for weeks now, that I totally changed my opinion on adding her to the ticket. We may know today, or tomorrow, but it is very doubful that she's the pick. However, with 25 + % of the HRC primary voters saying they will vote for McCain, it's hard to imagine a running mate who would do more for Obama than her.

The other name that I haven't heard at all, except for a slight blurb on POTUS '08 (XM Channel 130), is Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida. As electoral-vote.com put it, "[He] would certainly put Florida in play. That alone might be reason to choose him. There is no conceivable way McCain could get 270 electoral votes without Florida." Nelson won his last race in Florida by the largest margin by a Democratic candidate in the last century.

All of this leads me to question why Obama isn't concentrating more effort into Florida. If Obama gets Florida (and he is only a few points back) his job gets monumentally easier. 538.com has him only 50-50 to win all the Kerry states, but with Florida, Obama can lose multiple states that Kerry won and still win. Assuming he wins Iowa (where he has not trailed in a poll since 2007), Iowa plus Florida means that McCain would have virtually no chance of winning.

The bottom line is today is a huge news day. There is no major Olympic event finals tonight (gymnastics, swimming, and the 100/200m track finals are over), and any news would be big news. I would love to see Obama take advantage. HRC is in Florida today and Florida is busy recovering from a hurricane. It would be a wonderful pick-me-up to all of the Florida voters who went to the "beauty-contest" primary and voted for Clinton to get a text message this afternoon that says only this:

"Dream Team."