Hot Mamma! Cuban in trouble again.

Mark Cuban, the oft-troubled, somewhat infamous owner of the Dallas Mavericks basketball team, has found himself in some deep do-do. Cuban, who is worth over $2 billion personally, has made a name for himself as a professional sports team owner by being vocally critical of everything from the NBA front-office to game referees, and even to superstar Dwayne Wade. In all, his fines for these incidents total more than $1.6 million dollars (he claims that he matches his donations to the NBA with donations to charities).

Well, some charity might just be close to their big payday. For all the trouble Cuban has been in with the NBA, it's the SEC he really should be worried about (no, not the Southeastern Conference, and whether or not he might be able to land a big draft pick form Kentucky or Florida). The SEC is the Securities and Exchange Commission, and they have charged him with insider trading for allegedly using confidential information to avoid more than $750,000 in losses.

To break it down, Cuban owned a bunch of stock in mamma.com, a canadian-held internet search engine company. He found out from confidential sources not made public, that mamma.com was going to have a large stock offering that would be far below current market value. Cuban went ahead and sold his stock when the value was still high (before the large public offereing at a lower price), avoiding losses of nearly $750,000.

From ESPN news services:

As we allege in the complaint, Mamma.com entrusted Mr. Cuban with nonpublic information after he promised to keep the information confidential. Less than four hours later, Mr. Cuban betrayed that trust by placing an order to sell all of his shares," Scott W. Friestad, deputy director of the SEC's Division of Enforcement, said in a statement. "It is fundamentally unfair for someone to use access to nonpublic information to improperly gain an edge on the market.

Cuban had solidified himself as a sleaze-ball well before this, but now he's gone from "sort of ha-ha funny" type pranks (grimace while you laugh), to "ha-ha oops now I'm about to go to prison" type actions.

It's too bad. He was one of those guys that a lot of people hated, but I had a hard time really disliking him. I sort of thought that if I was smart enough to a) come up with a great internet start-up at the beginning of the dot-com boom, b) sell that start up to yahoo.com for $6 billion worth of yahoo stock, and then c) sell my yahoo stock and diversify before the dot-com crash (which of course I was not smart enough to do, nor will I be) that maybe I would take my billions, buy a sports team and then "start stuff" with other teams, owners, referees, coaches, etc.

Oh, well. The higher you climb, the further you fall. Funny that Cuban was willing to pay the NBA almost $2 million, just so he could get his face on TV and name in the papers, but couldn't swallow his pride and bite the bullet on $750,000 of stock options for a website called mamma.com (has anyone ever heard of this site... "the mother of all search engines"?).

Good luck finding a good lawyer. You will undoubtedly spend FAR MORE than $750,000 in the defense of yourself in the case. Someone's getting rich -- and it's too bad it's probably not the charities.

Scott Rasmussen EXCLUSIVE

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. Scott maintains his independence and has never been a campaign pollster or consultant for candidates seeking office. Before turning to polling, Scott grew up in the broadcast business. In 2008, his poll, the Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll, was deemed to be the most accurate poll by Fordham University.

I recently had a chance to pose a few questions to Mr. Rasmussen regarding the election and polling in general.

OS: Mr. Rasmussen, based on many news reports and confirmed through an analysis by Fordham University, you were the most accurate pollster of the 2008 election. Does this give you a sense of vindication since many in both the print and electronic media sometimes doubted your work during the election cycle?

SR: I did not feel a particular need for vindication. In 2004, we were the only firm to project Bush and Kerry’s actual vote total within half a percentage point. Our firm has a fine track record in state and local polling. But, it’s always nice when the results validate our work.

OS: One reason I suspect you were so successful is your unique method of party-weighting. Without giving away any trade secrets, can you briefly describe your method of party-ID weighting?

SR: We collect large volumes of data and use this information to establish targets for how many republicans, democrats, and unaffiliated voters should be in the sample. This eliminates one level of statistical noise that can impact the results.

OS: Obviously when you conduct a poll for an election, you can verify your methods and techniques by looking at the election results. But when you are conducting surveys and polls not related to politics, is there a way to verify that you are getting accurate responses? If so, how?

SR: There are many ways to verify poll results, but the specifics depend upon the poll. For example, when we poll about health care, we always check to make sure that our sample includes an appropriate percentage of people with no health care coverage.

OS: Other pollsters continue to attempt widespread use of internet polling, even though their results are widely divergent from other telephone polls and the actual election results. Is there reason to believe internet polling is the future of the industry?

SR: The industry will change dramatically over the next few years and we will see a lot of experimentation with online polling, text polling, and more. It is all part of the industry’s future.

OS: Lastly, when reviewing your poll results and data collected over the past year of polling, is there a data point that you don't have, or a question you wished you had tracked or asked?

SR: There are a million data points I wish we had! But, there is not one single data point that keeps me awake at night.

Couldn't Resist

Race and the election

It's interesting that throughout the entire campaign, Barack Obama did everything he could to make sure that the election was not about race. Some even called him the 'post-racial' candidate.

Yet, since about 10:00 PM on Tuesday evening, almost the entire coverage of the election has been about 'how far' this country has come since slavery and the civil rights movement of the 1960s. There have been so many clichés about black children finally being able to believe that they can truly be "whatever they want to be" when they grow up, my head hurts. Every civil rights leader still alive has been interviewed. Election night coverage on MSNBC and in the Chicago Tribune the next morning was focused on Atlanta, GA and Selma, AL.

For a candidate that tried so hard to distance himself from the issue of race, and for the liberal media that did the same, it was almost as if they didn't want to make it an issue until the reality of it was overcome. Now that that's been done, the fear of coming up just short isn't present. And the realization of what Obama truly accomplished can be appreciated.

I already miss Sarah!

In their special election edition, Newsweek reports that Gov. Sarah Palin's shopping spree at high-end department stores was more extensive than previously reported. While publicly supporting Palin, McCain's top advisers privately fumed at what they regarded as her outrageous profligacy."

"One senior aide said that Nicolle Wallace had told Palin to buy three suits for the convention and hire a stylist. But instead, the vice presidential nominee began buying for herself and her family -- clothes and accessories from top stores such as Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus. According to two knowledgeable sources, a vast majority of the clothes were bought by a wealthy donor, who was shocked when he got the bill."

"Palin also used low-level staffers to buy some of the clothes on their credit cards. The McCain campaign found out last week when the aides sought reimbursement. One aide estimated that she spent 'tens of thousands' more than the reported $150,000, and that $20,000 to $40,000 went to buy clothes for her husband. Some articles of clothing have apparently been lost. An angry aide ... said the truth will eventually come out when the Republican Party audits its books."

But the best part is that she didn't even know Africa was a continent:

A little more?

I know we have been pretty demanding of LWJ, especially since he is in the first semester of law school, but he is in the belly of the beast so to speak, so I am just going to have to ask him for a little more.

LWJ, would it be too much to ask to have you attend this one? I would love it if we could get our blog linked in with some others. And it seems like an amazing cause. (As you may have noticed we have had The Field linked all year long, and have always hat tipped Nate Silver and Sean Quinn when time and space permitted.)

Morning Thoughts

To the left are Nate Silver's predictions for the 2008 election. I will have you note that the final popular vote is currently standing at 52.4 to 46.4 and the Obama's electoral votes stand at 349.

Downright insane that he missed the popular vote by one tenth of a percent, and due to his computers unwillingness to round electoral votes, missed the EV by 4 tenths of a point. Amazing. He clearly stamped himself as the new electoral number crunching guru.

----------------------------

Let's see here ... we know that America elected a President who wrote about doing cocaine and marijuana in his autobiography (which makes him the second consecutive President to have admitted to cocaine use), elected a Senator who is a convicted felon, and elected a member to the House of Representatives who had federal agents find $40,000 worth of cash in his freezer. (Hat tip Hurricane)

Do coke? Check.
Convicted felon? Check.
Take bribes and try to conceal it? Check
Well, then. You now have the qualifications to be elected to Washington.

----------------------------

Prop 8 passed. So no more gay marriages. What's nonsensical to me is that we had the new President-elect and Vice-President elect opposed to Prop 8, but against same-sex marriage. I am mystified at how they reconcile that in their own minds.

----------------------------

The Minnesota Senate race is still too close to call. Franken had it won until Coleman stopped the negative ads and crept back into the race. Bachman won. And so did Paulson.

A little note to Franken, Tinklenberg and Madia: Read Zogby before you start going negative. In April he warned that going negative this year would be a HUGE mistake. McCain tried it-lost. Madia tried it-lost. Tinklenberg had absolutely no reason to go negative, as LWJ put it "when your opponent is trying to hang themselves stay the f**k away from the noose." But alas, Tinklenberg couldn't resist. And he lost.

Franken had the most to lose by going negative and the most to gain by staying positive. The more Coleman attacked him (which we knew was going to happen), the better Franken would have looked staying positive. An agreement in February to keep the campaign positive would have frozen Coleman and won the election for Franken. But he just couldn't resist going negative. I hope he likes his role as a satirist more than he would have liked Senate chambers.

Grant Park Last Night

Nebraska 2nd may not go Obama's way

Move back into toss-up.

[UPDATE: In the spirit of the AP retracting calls, they have also retracted their call in the Minnesota Senate race. Also, they have yet to call Georgia in either the Senate or the Presidency. Apparently there are massive amounts of uncounted early votes from predominantly African-American counties that are still unprocessed.]

Obama wins Nebraska Second!

Obama wins Nebraska's second Congressional district. He'll pick up another electoral vote there.

[UPDATE: 2:08 AM Central: Franken has pulled ahead by 1,000 votes]
[UPDATE: 2:14 AM Central: With 66% precincts reporting, Ted Stevens, convicted felon, is winning in the Alaska Senate race, 48%-47%]

LWJ @ Grant Park

* they got their puppy*

Simply stunning.

LIVE BLOG #5 - 10:00 PM Central

11:00 (DH) - Landslide victory possible, blowout if all 3 go to obama

10:57 (OS) - Obama still leading in Montana, Indiana, and North Carolina.

10:47 (OS) - With 1,300,000+ votes cast, only 56 votes seperate Coleman and Franken. 56 votes.

10:35 (OS) - Great speech by McCain, wonderfully respectful and very heartfelt. You wonder why that McCain appeared only rarely during the campaign.

10:14 (OS) - North Carolina is currently 1,932,000 to 1,929,000 but ... Warren County is the last remaining county to come in. DH used to report from Warren County. We are hoping he can deliver.

LIVE BLOG #4 - 9:00 PM Central

9:56 (LWJ)

9:52 (LWJ)

9:45 - (OS) Things we are watching: the Senate race in MN, Prop 8 in California, and whether we predicted the race perfectly.

9:42 - (OS) Don't fear, I am still here with you all. Shout outs to Hurricaine, A. Philip Noxid, and obvi, my bro in law.

9:23 - (LWJ) Hey all, I'm cracking the champagne for the Obama campaign. And then we are heading down to Grant Park. This will be incredible. I hope I live to tell about it. Anyway, thanks for your interest in our blog tonight. And check back going forward. We will continue to report on funny news regarding politics and sports, and of course, we will interject our own brilliant insight as well. Thanks again. Good night. And, good luck.

9:18 - (OS) My mother is pretty sure LWJ is going to be trampled to death in Grant Park

9:17 - (LWJ) New Mexico in the Obama column. It's over. If you take his total and add in California (55) and Hawaii (4), he is at 266. That means he needs 1 of the following: Washington, Oregon, Indiana, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, or Florida.

9:12 - (LWJ) As it sits right now, according to NBC:


9:09 - (LWJ) MSNBC reports that South Dakota abortion ban has failed for a second time.

9:09 - (LWJ) Another deep south state goes to McCain. Mississippi.

9:05 - (LWJ) Every single Police officer and firefighter in Chicago is on duty tonight. My girlfriend also informed me that her west-side Chicago hospital is on bio-terrorism stand-by.

9:04 - (OS) Landrieu (Democrat) is leading in Louisiana and is (barely) over 50% so it appears she will avoid a runoff

9:03 (DH) Obama within 5,000 votes in Indiana, Gary hasn't come in yet. THIS COULD BE A BLOWOUT!!!

9:02 (DH) OBAMA widening lead in NC and VA. A couple states south of the mason-dixon line pulling for a black president. Unbelieveable

9:00 - (LWJ) Iowa instantly called for Obama.

LIVE BLOG #3 - Continued

8:55 - (OS) Texas for McCain.

8:52 - (LWJ) Tim Russert montage on NBC. Sad to think of who all is missing this historic night. Russert. Duck Durbin's daughter. And Obama's grandmother.

8:44 - (LWJ) Imagine if Clinton hadn't pulled Jeremiah Wright and McCain introduced the video footage in September.

8:42 - (LWJ) My girlfriend just asked if the questionable land that the Obama's bought from Rezko will be turned into a heli-pad.

8:41 - (LWJ) Even if the Dems don't get 60 seats, they will have a comfortable majority for years to come. If for example, the Dems have a bad mid-term election in 2010 and lose 5 seats, they would still have a majority.

8:37 - (DH) CNN just called ohio, go party baby, go party!

8:32 - (LWJ) CNN isn't calling Ohio. But MSNBC has called it. The girlfriend and I are heading down to Grant Park soon. Can't miss out on a party like this.

Congratulations to the 44th President of the U.S. Barack Obama

President Obama. Who thought it would ever happen?

LIVE BLOG #3 - 8:00 Central

8:27 (DH) YES WE CAN! AND WE DID!! OBAMA IS NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE USA. HECK YES!! HE WINS!!

8:25 (DH) OBAMA WINS!!! OUR NEXT PRESIDENT!!!! YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YES!!!!!!!! WE WIN!

8:23 (DH) AND EVERYTHING JUST CHANGED!!! OBAMA TAKES OHIO!

8:22 - (DH) Things are starting to get sticky. A little bit of nervousness coming through in this house. This looks like Kerry. Lots of states for Obama, but nothing big.

8:20 - (OS) CNN is giving the KY Senate race to McConnell. Looks impossible now that the Dems will end the night with 60 Senate seats.

8:14 - (LWJ) fivethirtyeight.com just called the New Mexico Senate race for Tom Udall, the Democrat. This is another pick-up for the Democrats.

8:13 - (OS) Map still the same as Kerry in 2004.

8:09 - (LWJ) Things are getting tight in VA and IN. Could be a long night in both places. Also - KY Senate race is holding at 51-49, but I don't know if Bruce Lansford can pull it out if he doesn't cut that lead soon.

8:08 - (LWJ) Arkansas for McCain.

8:06 - Dad just said "Franken IS NOT GOING TO WIN"
OS: "why'd you try to convince me to vote for him, then?"

8:04 - (LWJ) Here's how it's looking right now:


8:02: (OS) DH is strongly wondering why he didnt saty in NC and cast his vote there.

8:00 - (LWJ) Insta-calls: McCain wins KS, ND, WY Obama wins NY, MI, MN, WI, RI

LIVE BLOG #2 - 7:00 PM Central

7:55 - (LWJ) On MSNBC, congressman Tom Delay (R) just predicted that the Democrats in Congress are gong to "run circles" around Obama and that Nancy Pelosi is going to push her agenda through and "double the minimum wage" in the next 6 months.

7:54 - (DH) DH has been trying to shout out pailin=failin all NIGHT for drinking a sam sampler pack, i believe that HDC is doing that as well!

7:52 - (OS) MN polls close in less than ten minutes ... any presidcitons LWJ?

7:50 - (LWJ) CNN (Best Political Team on Television) says that Obama is far outperforming Kerry in key counties in FL and IN. James Carville also just said that he doesn't see a path to victory for McCain.

7:49 - (LWJ) The Kentucky Senate race is tightening. Remember that the sitting Republican Senator, Mitch McConnell is the minority leader of the Senate. It's now 51-49 with 39% of precincts reporting.

7:47 - (LWJ) - McCain leads Virginia, but my girlfriend points out that 2 years ago James Carville conceded the Senate race in Virginia to Republican George Allen early in the night. Then took it back. It kept tightening and tightening as results came in. Then, with about 98% of precints reporting, Democrat Jim Webb took the lead and held on.

7:43 - (OS) McCain has no route.

7:36 - (LWJ) McCain wins GA. Surprising (at least to me) that they called it this early.

7:35 - (OS) GOP sources on MN TV networks, are reporting that Michelle Bachman will retain her seat.

7:34 - (LWJ) - McCain wins Alabama. Not surprising. I wonder what percentage of the black vote Obama carried there. (Just checked CNN exit polls. Obama won the black vote 98-2)

7:33 - (OS) Without NH, McCain's map gets THAT much harder

7:33 - (OS) Why haven't they called Georgia?

7:32 - (LWJ) MSNBC just moved Virginia from 'Too Early to Call' to 'Too Close to Call.' That's not good news for Obama. The early results there are strong for McCain. With 36% precincts reporting its 55%-35% for McCain.

7:31 - (LWJ) MSNBC just called Kay Hagan as North Carolina Senator. YESSIRRRR!

7:23 - (LWJ) Democrats are kind of like Cubs fans. We're so used to losing, we don't know what to do when we win.

7:16: Democrat Jean Shaheen will win the contested NH Senate seat. In NJ, Republican Susan Collins will keep her seat. Democrat Dick Durbin (Yeah!!! - we love Dick Durbin) will keep his seat in IL. Democrat John Kerry will keep is seat in MA.

7:08 - Biden will win his Senate seat. Nice to have that as a fall back in case he and Obama lose tonight. Here's how it looks right now:


7:02 - Delaware, Biden's home state, will go to the Obama-Biden ticket. Chris Matthews said that Pennsylvania was a failure for the Republicans.

7:01 - New Hampshire - Obama. Maine as well. These instant calls are good news. It means it wasn't even close.

7:00 - PENSYLVANIA - OBAMA. Also NJ, IL, MA, D.C., MD, CT. McCain will win TN, OK.

LIVE BLOG #1 - 6:00 PM Central

7:03 - MORE NEWS! Christian-Evangelicas are voting for McCain 3 to 1

7:02 - This JUST IN! From CNN, black people prefer Obama, and white people prefer McCain

6:59 (LWJ) - Some insta calls coming when polls close at 7:00. 15 states and D.C. will close in 1 minute.

6:57 (LWJ) - Tonight is, in the end, is a night about Democrats. Yeah, it sucks that we had Bush in the White House for 8 years. But, man have the Democrats capitalized.

6:45 (LWJ) - Lieberman on MSNBC looking happy to be on McCain's plane. Hope he gets comfy in the back of the Senate.

6:43 - (LWJ) - According to exit polls, the late breakers went for Obama in North Carolina 62-35

6:37 - Democrat Jay Rockafeller will keep is Senate seat in West Virigina (MSNBC). BTW - does anyone else think he looks like Jim Boeheim?

6:36 - The news from electoralvote.com looks pretty good. Here's is the final map from today. Here is the final map from 4 years ago.

6:34 - (LWJ) Uh Oh! Chris Matthews is starting to drool about Obama.

6:34 Mom: Oh, dear

6:34 OS: There will be rioting in Chicago

6:34 Mom: What will happen if he loses?

6:32 Obama down 8 - 3, and my dad has pretty much given up on Barack.

6:26 - (LWJ) talingpointsmemo.com has some important exit polls. Remember, these are just exit polls, but the indications are good.

Georgia: McCain 50%, Obama 48%
Indiana: Obama 52%, McCain 46%
Virginia: Obama 54%, McCain 45%

6:21 - (LWJ) Lines of up to 6 hours reported in Chesapeake, VA. Don't want to say I called it. But, I called it.

6:15 - (LWJ) WOW. CNN just 'virtually' brought a reporter into the CNN election center. This is absolutely the dumbest thing I've ever seen. Wolf Blitzer it "talking" to someone who is 1,000 miles away, but we see them talking face-to-face through a 'hologram.' Terrible. I'm about to turn on Fox News.

6:11 - (OS) Another Presidential call: McCain will win South Carolina.

6:10 - (LWJ) Republican Lindsay Graham will keep his Senate seat in South Carolina (NBC).

6:05 - (LWJ) Democrat Mark Warner will be the Senator from Virginia (CNN). This is a pick up from the Republicans, but not a huge surprise. Warner has been up by huge margins throughout the race.

6:04 - (LWJ) Interesting looking at the exit polls in Indiana. For the question "Who Is In Touch With People Like You?" Obama won 45%-27%. That's crushing for McCain especially when the election is all about the economy.

6:00 - (LWJ) Our first calls. CNN says Obama in VT and McCain in KY.

5: 59 - (LWJ) Good evening! We are about to see history tonight. Either a black candidate will be elected for the first time or a woman will be elected on a major party ticket for the first time. A sitting senator will be elected for the first time since 1960. A candidate from somewhere other than the deep south or California will be elected for the first time since 1960 as well. No matter what, should be a fun night.

forecast

... And you should too! I stood in line for about an hour and actually loved it. YES WE CAN!






A couple of things of note. First of all, I fell asleep last night relieved. Not only becuause fivethirtyeight.com has Barack's win percentage at over 98% for the first time, but also because what I thought would happen never happened. The republicans never mounted an all out attack. There was no major last-ditch effort at reviving the Jeremiah Wright story, or Barack Hussein chants, or any noteworthy 13th-hour attempt at swaying the voters back to McCain.

He has, it seems, thrown in the towel. Less than 2% of voters woke this morning still undecided, and even if 70% of those people vote for McCain -- which is unlikely -- Obama will still win both the popular and electoral college votes, making him the first minority president in our country's history.

I will offer more thoughts and insight as the day goes on, but I wanted to quickly update on the weather in some key states:







Summary: Let's hope afternoon rain in Philly and Harrisburg doesn't keep blue votes away today. McCain's chances look cloudy in Florida, but a bit of "hope sunshine" might just be breaking through. Morning rain in North Carolina... maybe it'll wash away any chances of a republican comeback there. The weather looks great in Missouri: "Show me" a victory for Barack, baby! Wind and rain in Montana might just blow the ol' Maverick's chances outta there.

Recap: McCain needs to win Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, and Montana. If he drops any of those states, it's pretty much over.

Get out and vote!

Please ... Vote

I know all of you will, and it's not like you really needed more motivation. But if the lines get long, and the weather gets bad...

Adam’s Story:

Upon arriving at the Hamilton County Board of Elections in Cincinnati to vote early today I happened upon some friends of my mother's — three small, elderly Jewish women. They were quite upset as they were being refused admittance to the polling location due to their Obama T-Shirts, hats and buttons. Apparently you cannot wear [political] gear into polling locations here in Ohio.... They were practically on the verge of tears.

After a minute or two of this a huge man (6'5", 300 lbs easy) wearing a Dale Earnhardt jacket and Bengal's baseball cap left the voting line, came up to us and introduced himself as Mike. He told us he had overheard our conversation and asked if the ladies would like to borrow his jacket to put over their t-shirts so they could go in and vote. The ladies quickly agreed. As long as I live I will never forget the image of these 80-plus-year-old Jewish ladies walking into the polling location wearing a huge Dale Earnhardt racing jacket that came over their hands and down to their knees!

Mike patiently waited for each woman to cast their vote, accepted their many thanks and then got back in line (I saved him a place while he was helping out the ladies). When Mike got back in line I asked him if he was an Obama supporter. He said that he was not, but that he couldn't stand to see those ladies so upset. I thanked him for being a gentleman in a time of bitter partisanship and wished him well.

After I voted I walked out to the street to find my mother's friends surrounding our new friend Mike — they were laughing and having a great time. I joined them and soon learned that Mike had changed his mind in the polling booth and ended up voting for Obama. When I asked him why he changed his mind at the last minute, he explained that while he was waiting for his jacket he got into a conversation with one of the ladies who had explained how the Jewish community, and she, had worked side by side with the black community during the civil rights movements of the '60s, and that this vote was the culmination of those personal and community efforts so many years ago. That this election for her was more than just a vote ... but a chance at history.

Mike looked at me and said, "Obama's going to win, and I didn't want to tell my grandchildren some day that I had an opportunity to vote for the first black president, but I missed my chance at history and voted for the other guy."

Sean’s Story:

Back at the [Obama] rally… I spotted a very old black man in a sharp Sunday suit walking slowly at the very back of the huge march. He hadn't yet arrived at the voting center, and I decided to find him when I got back.

I wanted to go talk to him, to ask him what this moment meant to him. He was a guy who you take one glance at, and know, that guy's seen it all. I wanted a quote. I had my journalist hat on. I thought, this will be great.

So when I got back to the voting location with the car, I went to find him in the line. Eventually I spotted him, and was ready to walk up the few feet between us and introduce myself when I stopped in my tracks.

A young black boy, no more than eight years old, walked up to this man, who was at least eighty. The boy offered the man a sticker, probably an "I Voted" sticker, but I couldn't see. The man took the sticker and paused. Silently, he looked down at the boy, who was looking back up at the man. The man put his hand gently on the boy's head, and I saw his eyes glisten.

I didn't ask the man for a quote. I didn't need to. I walked over by myself, behind the community center, and I sat down on a bench next to the track, and wept.

Brent’s Story:

Due to the recent discovery of having an aggressive form of cancer, I'll never vote again. But thankfully I cast my last vote for whom I sincerely believe to the best and most consequential presidential candidate to ever appear on the ballot in all of my 53 years, Barack Obama.

Like many of members of this community, I've got decades worth of political experience in terms of volunteer work and more formal elective roles within the county and state Democratic parties - along with consulting and managing campaigns and even an eleven year stint in promoting our side on talk radio.

But this election year and the candidate we are championing simply seems to dwarf anything I've been involved with in the past. Obviously a large part of that is due to the extraordinary abuse that the current regime has inflicted upon our country in the last eight years - but it's also much larger than that.

Back in early 2006 when I was mentally constructing the attributes that our next presidential should bring to the table - one unusual need kept re-occurring to me. Our next candidate needed to find a way in inject some Love into the process. Not the typical "love of country" but the ability to project a genuine love for our fellow citizens into the mix.

Much to my surprise and despite all of the traditional concerns that this political veteran initially had - Barack Obama emerged as the precise type of candidate that these extraordinary times called for. And that makes me happy beyond belief and provides me with the will and determination to live to election day and even a ways beyond.

So YES WE CAN … Stay active and keep pushing those winning ideals. I'll be with you in spirit all the way!

It's almost here...

The sun'll come out
Tomorrow
So ya gotta hang on
'Til tomorrow
Come what may
Tomorrow! Tomorrow!
I love ya Tomorrow!
You're always
A day
A way!

-- Annie

A few more predictions, and then some final thoughts.

- Tomorrow, the key state to keep an eye on is Pennsylvania. If Obama wins the Keystone state, the election is his. Official Scorer pointed this out about 2.5 weeks ago, and he couldn't be more right. If McCain wins the election it doesn't mean he will win, but it means we will have a very late night and Obama is in deep trouble.
- Expect incredible turnout. There will be reports of 6 hour lines in some states. The reports will be true. Americans are paying attention at unprecedented levels. Registration is up throughout the country. We have a black candidate on a major party ticket for the first time. We have a woman on a major party ticket for the first time in over 20 years. Expect record turnout.
- Expect the exit polls to be wrong. Exit polls are meant to give us a sense of why voters vote the way they do. They are not meant as predictive models.
- The closest states will probably be NC and GA. If Obama wins GA - don't be shocked. Huckabee, not McCain carried the state in the Republican primaries. Black turnout there has been at incredible levels during early voting. If it stays above 30% (it's at 35% right now), an Obama win in the deep south is not out of the question.
- Finally, check back often tomorrow evening. We will be liveblogging and updating frequently. We will have information on key Senate races as well.

As I sit here in Chicago and wait for the world to descend on our city tomorrow, I only hope that things turn out for the best. I have been following this election for 21 months. I watched Obama give his announcement speech in Springfield, IL from the steps of the Old State Capital building. I made phone calls to voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. I called old black women in Columbia, South Carolina urging them to attend an Obama rally featuring Oprah. I drove 4 hours to Iowa and spent almost a week driving the back roads in snowstorms to get to doors on the outskirts of Burlington, Iowa, in the eastern part of the state that plays such a pivotal roll in how we determine our president.

I have spent, literally, thousands of hours following political news and blogs. If there has been movement in the polls, I've known about it. If there has been breaking news about Obama, McCain, or Clinton, I've known about it (and, yet, the amount of time that I've spent following this election probably pales in comparison to Official Scorer).

What I've learned is that people in this country are yearning for something better than what we've had for the past 8 years. Independents are tired of the divisiveness of the Bush presidency and the partisan politics. Democrats, still feeling the sting of Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004, are searching for something to restore their faith in the political process. I have felt, through these emotions, the true effect of Barack Obama. I've been in campaign offices that are overflowing with volunteers. I've spoken with people who said they weren't sure they would ever vote again. I've spoken with young people who never cared about politics. And the resounding sense that I've everyone I've encountered is that this isn't about Barack. It's about America. It's about feeling good about ourselves. It's about overcoming fear and hate, and deciding to chose hope and belief. Barack may have said it best himself when he said, "I'm not asking you to believe in me. I'm asking you to believe in yourselves."

His campaign took no money from Political Action Committees. Not like he needed any. He raised ungodly sums on the internet. Can I disagree with sentiment that he bought this election? Probably not. Then again, after Florida in 2000 and the Swiftboat campaign in 2004, I guess I don't much care.

But, it's not all about money. Obama created an unprecedented ground operation. He empowered his volunteers, and they responded. Yeah, Obama had money to help him. He also had hundreds of thousands of Americans sacrificing a little of themselves to help Barack win.

For the first time in my life, I'm proud of America (oops, I said it). At my tender age - with the frustration of the past two presidential elections, and especially the fact that we re-elected a President that took us into the quagmire of Iraq without ever finishing the job against those who attacked us on 9/11 - can you really blame me?

I don't necessarily think that Obama can defeat global warming, end poverty and genocide, get truly universal healthcare, or change the world. But, he will get a lot closer than John McCain and, unlike President Bush, these issues will at least be on his radar. And probably most important to nearly everyone in my socioeconomic circle of friends and family, Obama is clearly the best candidate for President to tackle economic issues that matter to the middle class.

I could sit and write for hours about why I'm voting for Barack. Leadership. Intelligence. Cool-headedness. I won't go into great detail. I'll let you make up your mind on the merits. Then again, if you're reading this blog, I have a good sense of how you will vote anyway.
Tomorrow, there is only one thing left. Vote. Nothing more can be said or done. Vote. Vote. Vote.

[UPDATE: Clearly, I meant, this is the first time I'm proud of the political process in America. Everyone knows that ;-)]

Predictions ...

Not sure how picking college football consensus All-Americans does not lead to more fist-fights, but LWJ and I have agreed on an electoral map of what will happen tomorrow.



We predict the final vote will be approximately 47 percent and change for McCain and 51 percent and change for Obama, or as LWJ predicted around a 3.5 % margin of victory in the popular vote.

LWJ is busy studying, I think, or canvassing, and he will be on in a bit to update the final projections and calls. The key to the map above is: Solid states are a greater than 5% margin of victory for the winning candidate; Lean states are predicted to be less than 5% margin of victory for the winning candidate.

Barack Obama's grandmother dies

This just in: Madelyn Dunham, the woman who raised Barack Obama, has died of cancer on the eve of his election as president of the United States. How impossibly tragic. It's utterly, utterly heartbreaking. Only one more day, and she would have lived, most likely, to see her grandson make history.

This is something you wouldn't believe if Hollywood made it up.

God bless her soul, and be with the Obama and Dunham families in this moment of loss. There's really nothing else to say. If you seek Madelyn Dunham's monument, turn on your TV around 10 o'clock tomorrow night. He'll be speaking to the nation.

Off his rocker

A while back, I heard someone say that if Obama win's the presidency, Matt Drudge's head may explode. Well, today, we moved a step close to that happening.

Drudge, who is known for his ability to get news first and make it immediately available to the public, is also known for his politically conservative tendencies. He has been on a personal crusade to derail Obama for weeks. His website is extremely popular. It gets more hits than the New York Times website (Drudge reports over 700 million hits in October alone).

In recent weeks, though, he has been headlining race-baiting photos, incendiary viral videos, and just about any unflattering news story, image, or article he can find about Obama. Today, however, he has gone off the deep end. Screenshot from 1:00 CT:


[UPDATE: Not to further confuse, or hijack LWJ's post, but another bastion of conservatism is also running out of options in how to help McCain, but their editorial staff is confused as to whether news of a blow-out or news of a close race is more helpful:]

Some Early Predictions

A teaser for the next few days:

We'll be out with our full election 2008 predictions over the weekend or by Monday at the latest.

Also, we'll likely be live-blogging on Tuesday night. So, as you watch the election returns, keep checking back in with our blog.

--

Now - the early predictions. I made these about 10 days ago, but I am feeling even more confident with them right now. The 2008 Presidential Election will feature:

• The highest voter turnout (by percentage) since 1908.
• The highest black voter turnout (by percentage) ever.
• A 3.5% win by Barack Obama (Yeah, I said it)
  

ACORN: No Joking Matter

I know some on here like to make jokes about ACORN ... but we now have proof that they intend to disrupt voting in places like Florida:

VERO BEACH — A frisky squirrel caused a 1 ½-hour power outage affecting 800 customers including the Indian River County Library and Courthouse on Thursday morning, city power officials said.

The outage slowed - but didn't stop - early voting at the library. During the outage, early voting went on by flashlight. Further information about how the votes were processed was not immediately available.

At about 8:45 a.m., a squirrel leaped from a tree onto a power line, causing a fire that tripped an electrical switch, knocking out a power line feeding a section of the downtown, said Randall McCamish, the city’s director of electrical transmission and distribution.

The dead squirrel was found lying on the ground.

Once the power was restored, early voting continued as usual.

...

No doubt we can blame it on an acorn.

More Haloween Jokes

+ + =

Sack knocks another one out of the ballpark.

A ghostly, ghastly Friday, indeed

I know it’s Friday, and nobody wants to read a long blog post. But this is worth it. I found this on wftv’s web page. This was actually written. And published. By a person.

Personally, I think it should be called WTF TV. It’s not so much the content. It’s Haloween, so it shouldn’t surprise us that there are ghosts rising from their graves to cast votes in this all-important election. That happens. What is far more surprising is that this was actually posted by a Florida TV station. If you ever wondered the intelligence of our citizenry, look no further than the sources of their information.

I present you with Dead People Voting Throughout Florida, published Thursday, October 30, 2008, on Channel 9's wftv.com: (I have not altered anything from the original content).

VOLUSIA COUNTY, Fla. –

Thousands of dead Floridians are registered to vote and some in Central Florida had ballots cast in their names long after their deaths.

"That is scary," said Jim Branch.

Branch's mother Marjorie died in 2004 but someone voted for her in 2006. Branch had tried to get his mother removed from the voter rolls.

"It was much easier for me calling Social Security and taking her off not getting any more checks here, than it was that (voter registration)," he sid.

County records show James Santiago voted in the 2006 general election. He too, was dead. His wife, Joann, sees this as an open invitation for voter fraud.

"I think it leaves it open to sign his name, during an election, especially an important one like this year," said Joann.

Channel Nine discovered 1,636 registered voters in Central Florida are dead.

"This is what makes Supervisors of Elections lose sleep at night," said Volusia County Supervisor of Elections Ann McFall.

McFall said it used to be easy to clear out voter rolls.

"We had two people who did nothing but cut obituary notices out of the papers," she said.

"That's how we found out someone died."

But 2002's Help America Vote act, which made it easier to register to vote, also made it more difficult to remove voters from the rolls. But Orange County Election Supervisor

Bill Cowles doesn't worry. "I think the mechanisms are in place. There's enough checks and balances in place," he said.

However, 90 days before the election, voter rolls can't be changed and if the state doesn't tell elections offices a voter has died, that voter can be on the rolls for years.

"The minute I said he was deceased, they should've made note, they should've done whatever they had to do, the people sitting behind that table, they should have done something," said Joann Santiago

Elections supervisors say they are pushing the state to allow them to accept death certificates from families as reasonable evidence to remove dead voters from the rolls.

If this doesn’t brighten (sarcastically) your Friday, I’m not sure what will. I’m cutting out of work early today. I’ve got some redistributionist regulatory work to do.

Very Slow Thursday

Since the day is going so slowly, I figure everyone needs a bit of a pick-me-up. So some quick trivia for ya, and then a little visit from Terry Tate.

I wonder what kind of odds could you have gotten in 1908 that a black dude would get elected president before the Cubs won the Series again? -- Nate Silver

But don't pay out those bets too quickly, because in every Presidential Election year that the Los Angeles Lakers went to the NBA Finals, the Republican candidate won (1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000, 2004, 2008).

Before you vote...

Read this

This was passed on to me by a more conservative friend...

I wish everyone a good day. I'm going to take off work early and spend my afternoon redistributing.

A Man Without a Home

On IMDB, the plot for the movie The Terminal is described like this:

While Viktor Navorski is en route to the U.S. to fulfill a wish of his late father's, there is a coup in the Eastern European country in which he lives. When he lands at JFK, he learns that his country is no longer recognized by the U.S. so he cannot enter - and he can't go home either, because all planes to his country are canceled. While waiting in this limbo, Viktor takes up residence in JFK Terminal and learns another definition of home.

I haven't seen the movie, but it's pretty easy to imagine.

Thinking about this movie (again, I haven't seen it), makes me think about another man without a home. Joseph Isadore "Joe" Lieberman. Oh how the mighty - or not so mighty - have fallen.

It wasn't so long ago the Lieberman was traveling the country, and the world with his homeboy, J-Mac. Lieberman served a useful purpose for J-Mac. When J-Mac didn't know the difference between Sunni and Shia Muslims, and didn't even know that there was a dispute between the two denominations of Islam, Lieberman was there to help him out. Hey, who could blame J-Mac? Sunnis and Shia's have only been fighting for 1,400 years.

Lieberman also acted as a surrogate and attack dog for J-Mac throughout this campaign. Lieberman questioned Obama and attacked Obama throughout the spring and summer. Who could really blame him? He was J-Mac's biggest supporter. He was the representation of all that was Mavericky about J-Mac. I mean, how many times has J-Mac talked about reaching accross the isle to his friend, Joe "the Senator?" Liberman had the inside track to the VP slot on J-Mac's ticket. They were best friends. Lieberman, however, wasn't selected to be VP (weren't they best friends!?!). J-Mac decided that this person would be a better VP candidated that Lierberman:

Ohhhhh. Joe "the Senator" must be angry. He was there for J-Mac. He had J-Mac's back. He helped him out. He knew the difference between Sunni and Shia. Sarah Palin can't even claim that much.

It wasn't too long ago that Joe "the Senator" was a Democrat (capital 'D'). He was on a Democratic ticket that won the popular vote for the Presidency only 8 years ago. Since then, however, his pro-war, pro-Bush, and pro-J-Mac stance has got him in trouble. In 2006, he lost his primary election, as an incumbent. He ended up winning the election as an Independent (capital 'I').

This fall, for a time, even after he got snubbed by J-Mac, Joe "the Senator" probably thought things would be OK. "J-Mac & Trig's mom" had a nice ring to it. It seemed like they might even win this election. Joe "the Senator" could keep his position as a Senator, or possibly take a cushy appointment in a J-Mac administration. But things took a turn for the worse. That 'unqualified' Obama guy took a lead in the polls. Then he extended that lead. All of a sudden it began to look like he might win the election.

Even worse for Joe "the Senator" was the fact that it doesn't appear that 2006 was the only Democratic landslide that we are going to see this decade. 2008 is shaping up to produce even more gains for the Democratic party. And for Joe "the Senator," this isn't good news. Joe "the Senator" is the chairman of two important committees in the Senate. Sure, the Democrats control the Senate and Joe "the Senator" isn't a Democrat. But he used to be. And, he typically caucuses with Democrats (unless he's chosing a Presidential candidate). Moreover, the Democrats, in the Senate, are clinging to a 51-49 majority in the Senate. This majority includes Joe "the Senator." They need Joe "the Senator" to keep their majority. They wouldn't take away his prized chairmanship positions because they need his vote.

But, the landslide is going to come. The Democrats are going to pick up anywhere between 5 and 9 seats in the Senate next Tuesday. All of a sudden, Joe's vote won't be so important to the Democrats. The Democratic leadership won't need to cajole and masage the ego of Joe "the Senator" anymore. And his chairmanships? Harry Reid can give them to whomever he damn well pleases. Do we think that Joe sees the writing on the wall? Earlier this week, Lieberman couldn't wait any longer to find the nearest news agency to proclaim his new found respect for Sen. Obama:

When I go out, I say, 'I have a lot of respect for Sen. Obama. He's bright. He's eloquent.'

Who is Joe fooling with this act of his? Anyone? He'd have to be a far better actor to pull of this switch-a-roo. He'd have to win an Oscar, just like Tom Hanks has, once or twice in his career. Joe, I know Tom Hanks. And you're no Tom Hanks.

Simpsons Strike Again

More reports of touch screens moving votes from Obama to McCain. This time in Texas.

According to CNN:

A caller from Beaumont, Texas reports that his mother, who he accompanied to the polls, had problems assuring the electronic touch screen machine was accurately recording her preference for Sen. Barack Obama. “She went to punch the selection for Obama and it flipped to McCain,” the caller said.

Midnight Train to Georgia

I know its hard to imagine, but there is widespread voting issues going on in Georgia. We are still a week away from election day and already there are problems.

We have poll workers illegally voting for people.

We have people not being registered because they are Black.

We have ballots that only show Republicans.

We have a beautiful First Amendment issue. Left Wing Jumper, you taking Con Law yet?

Some people have issues cause they haven't voted since they got to choose between Clinton and Bush.

And a shockingly brazen attempt to commit about six felonies (one less than Sen. Stevens).

But the most serious issue appears to be this one.

What? Our votes don't "actually" count? WTF?

Oh, and proof that someone actually reads our blog.

One week to go

This will be the final map we publish until sometime late Monday night. This is the race as best we see it. Obviously the map can change, but key point is the every "Kerry state" is safely blue (with the exception of New Hampshire), along with Iowa and New Mexico. If that holds, Obama needs just one more state, any state, and victory is his.

When to vote?

For most of you out there in non-swing states, you will be voting on November 4th. But for those of you in Virginia (and presumably other swing states) you will want to take note of a document that was just faxed to me by the Virginia Board of Elections.

On Friday, in an emergency session of the General Assembly, in an effort to reduce the burden of a massive turnout (and to avoid the type of legal liability that has already resulted in one law suit), the State of Virginia has decided to spread voting out over two days.

You can read the full text of the press release below, but I just wanted anyone in Virginia to know when they were supposed to vote.

Doh!

Early voting has started, and all signs point to the likelihood that this may be the presidential election with the greatest voter turnout in US history. I believe that this favors Obama, but with no basis for that belief, I'll just keep punching out this blog post.

In a recent CNN poll, 42 percent of those surveyed said they were not confident that their votes could be "accurately cast and counted." That number is up 15 percentage points from a similar poll conducted in 2004. 42 percent! Funny that our President Bush claimed that the votes which were cast for the President of Iran (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad) three years ago were done so "through an electoral process that ignores the basic requirements of democracy." On a similar note, politicians and journalists in many western countries (including the US, Germany, and Great Britain) questioned the legitimacy of the Russian Presidential election of 2008, which saw Dmitry Medvedev win with an overwhelming majority.

If almost half this country wonders whether their votes will be accurately counted, how democratic is our system?

As of Tuesday, 29 states were accepting early ballots, and election officials are reporting record turnouts. Voting problems, ranging from computer glitches to long lines, have been reported in a few states.

Let's take a look at Calvin Thomas, an 81-year-old West Virginian, who took advantage of the opportunity to vote early. Let's see if his vote was counted more democratically than if his name were say... Calvin Thomaskov or Calvin Thomasakbari.

Thomas, an American, has been voting since the 1948 presidential election, when he was only 21 years old. That's 60 years (or 15 presidential elections). He walked into his voting booth, "pushed the Democrat ticket, and it jumped to the Republican ticket for president of the United States." The machine just switched his vote.

From CNN.com on October 24, 2008:

The same thing happened to his daughter, Micki Clendenin, when she cast her ballot. In both cases, poll workers at the site had them touch the screen a few more times, and the voting machine changed their ballot to their candidate choice.

"The lady came in, and she was -- very nicely, she just said, 'it's just been doing that.' She said, 'just hit it again.' So we hit it again, and this time it did go to Obama," Clendenin said.

At this point, I have to laugh, and wonder. When she said "just hit it again," were they just voting for McCain a few more times? A couple votes for McCain... “touch the screen a few more times"… a couple more for McCain... and... there we go: ONE VOTE for Mr. Obama. NICE!

By this point, I am really laughing, because one would have to think "you can't make this stuff up!"

But, I know I have seen this somewhere before: Matt Groening and James Brooks, who invented "The Simpsons," DID MAKE THIS STUFF UP.

See below from the October 19th, 2008 episode (five days before Calvin's experience):

Homer Simpson vote Obama
by divertissonsnous

Audrey Seiler, Susan Smith redux ...

Late yesterday we received word (via a massive headline on Drudge) that a woman had been attacked by a black Obama supporter because he was upset that she had a McCain bumper sticker (and that she was White ... obv). I am posting the underscaled version that was on Drudge's site last night:

The "victim" even claimed that the attacker carved a B on her face. What is so classic is that mere moments after the story went up, I received this message via Gmail from Left Wing Jumper:

3:30 PM me: http://www.thepittsburghchannel.com/news/17789356/detail.html

LWJ: seems sketchy

3:31 PM

LWJ: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Susan_Smith

me: damn that was quick

The reason I responded "damn that was quick" was not to be dismissive of his theory, but to indicate that we had both seen this story before. Audrey Seiler was the University of Wisconsin Student went missing for a few cold nights in Madison. At the time, both LWJ and I were called mysogenists and other such names when we both claimed Ms. Seiler was crying wolf. Of course, we all learned later that she had faked her own abduction, then blamed it on an unknown black assailant.

Susan Smith set the precedent of these cases in 1994 when she initially reported to police that she had been carjacked by a black man who drove away with her sons still in the car. Smith made tearful pleas on television for the rescue and return of her children. The police even put the media in a frenzy by releasing this 'sketch' of the attacker:



Of course, a few days later, Smith confessed to letting the car, with the boys inside, sink in a nearby lake.

What makes the case of the McCain worker - she is a College Republican up from Texas working in PA for the election - so funny is that a close examination of the B shows that it is backwards ... but if done in front of a mirror would look correct.

Today, less than 24 hours after the "attack" we receive word that this afternoon, a Pittsburgh police commander told the news media that the "victim" confessed to making up the story.

Too bad LWJ was not on the case, or it would have been solved 22 hours sooner. However before she recanted her statement, she did spend time with a sketch artist and rendered a few sketches of the attacker ...

She is sure it was either him











or him


or him


or him!


[UPDATE: Didn't see this last night, but apparently Senator McCain’s quest for the presidency is over, forever linked to race-baiting.]

[UPDATE #2: You gotta call it like you see it, and the RCP Blog has done just that:

Ashley Todd, the woman who told police she had been mugged by a black man who scratched the letter "B" into her face after seeing a McCain bumper sticker on her car, has now admitted she made the whole thing up, according to this report from KDKA.

What a disgrace.

This hardly ranks as one of the great racial hate crimes hoaxes of all time - Tawana Brawley, Susan Smith, and the Duke Lacrosse case were all far more egregious and damaging to the country's race relations - but it still is just a dirty and utterly irresponsible act that defies logic and deserves condemnation.

I couldn't agree more. --LWJ]