Monday, November 3, 2008

It's almost here...


The sun'll come out
Tomorrow
So ya gotta hang on
'Til tomorrow
Come what may
Tomorrow! Tomorrow!
I love ya Tomorrow!
You're always
A day
A way!

-- Annie


A few more predictions, and then some final thoughts.

- Tomorrow, the key state to keep an eye on is Pennsylvania. If Obama wins the Keystone state, the election is his. Official Scorer pointed this out about 2.5 weeks ago, and he couldn't be more right. If McCain wins the election it doesn't mean he will win, but it means we will have a very late night and Obama is in deep trouble.
- Expect incredible turnout. There will be reports of 6 hour lines in some states. The reports will be true. Americans are paying attention at unprecedented levels. Registration is up throughout the country. We have a black candidate on a major party ticket for the first time. We have a woman on a major party ticket for the first time in over 20 years. Expect record turnout.
- Expect the exit polls to be wrong. Exit polls are meant to give us a sense of why voters vote the way they do. They are not meant as predictive models.
- The closest states will probably be NC and GA. If Obama wins GA - don't be shocked. Huckabee, not McCain carried the state in the Republican primaries. Black turnout there has been at incredible levels during early voting. If it stays above 30% (it's at 35% right now), an Obama win in the deep south is not out of the question.
- Finally, check back often tomorrow evening. We will be liveblogging and updating frequently. We will have information on key Senate races as well.

As I sit here in Chicago and wait for the world to descend on our city tomorrow, I only hope that things turn out for the best. I have been following this election for 21 months. I watched Obama give his announcement speech in Springfield, IL from the steps of the Old State Capital building. I made phone calls to voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. I called old black women in Columbia, South Carolina urging them to attend an Obama rally featuring Oprah. I drove 4 hours to Iowa and spent almost a week driving the back roads in snowstorms to get to doors on the outskirts of Burlington, Iowa, in the eastern part of the state that plays such a pivotal roll in how we determine our president.

I have spent, literally, thousands of hours following political news and blogs. If there has been movement in the polls, I've known about it. If there has been breaking news about Obama, McCain, or Clinton, I've known about it (and, yet, the amount of time that I've spent following this election probably pales in comparison to Official Scorer).

What I've learned is that people in this country are yearning for something better than what we've had for the past 8 years. Independents are tired of the divisiveness of the Bush presidency and the partisan politics. Democrats, still feeling the sting of Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004, are searching for something to restore their faith in the political process. I have felt, through these emotions, the true effect of Barack Obama. I've been in campaign offices that are overflowing with volunteers. I've spoken with people who said they weren't sure they would ever vote again. I've spoken with young people who never cared about politics. And the resounding sense that I've everyone I've encountered is that this isn't about Barack. It's about America. It's about feeling good about ourselves. It's about overcoming fear and hate, and deciding to chose hope and belief. Barack may have said it best himself when he said, "I'm not asking you to believe in me. I'm asking you to believe in yourselves."

His campaign took no money from Political Action Committees. Not like he needed any. He raised ungodly sums on the internet. Can I disagree with sentiment that he bought this election? Probably not. Then again, after Florida in 2000 and the Swiftboat campaign in 2004, I guess I don't much care.

But, it's not all about money. Obama created an unprecedented ground operation. He empowered his volunteers, and they responded.
Yeah, Obama had money to help him. He also had hundreds of thousands of Americans sacrificing a little of themselves to help Barack win.

For the first time in my life, I'm proud of America (oops, I said it).
At my tender age - with the frustration of the past two presidential elections, and especially the fact that we re-elected a President that took us into the quagmire of Iraq without ever finishing the job against those who attacked us on 9/11 - can you really blame me?

I don't necessarily think that Obama can defeat global warming, end poverty and genocide, get truly universal healthcare, or change the world. But, he will get a lot closer than John McCain and, unlike President Bush, these issues will at least be on his radar. And probably most important to nearly everyone in my socioeconomic circle of friends and family, Obama is clearly the best candidate for President to tackle economic issues that matter to the middle class.

I could sit and write for hours about why I'm voting for Barack. Leadership. Intelligence. Cool-headedness. I won't go into great detail. I'll let you make up your mind on the merits. Then again, if you're reading this blog, I have a good sense of how you will vote anyway.
Tomorrow, there is only one thing left. Vote. Nothing more can be said or done. Vote. Vote. Vote.

[UPDATE: Clearly, I meant, this is the first time I'm proud of the political process in America. Everyone knows that ;-)]

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