Ugly Math

A look at the most recent electoral map, with each state being decided by who is leading in the RCP average, indicates that for the first time this entire election cycle, Mr. Obama is now trailing in the electoral vote count. This is a massive and significant development.

First, for a candidate that is claiming he will drastically "change the map," he is trending towards an identical finish as John Kerry with the additions of Iowa and New Mexico. This is a major blow to the argument that HRC's 'Kerry +1' strategy was not aggressive enough. It is hard to see her losing any of the states he is ahead in (except maybe Iowa), but her prospects would be much better in places like Florida, Ohio and West Virginia.

Second, the reality has become that McCain dominated Obama in the Saddleback forum. For a candidate that shunned townhalls with McCain (apparently to prevent McCain from getting free media coverage) the one he did agree to was in front of an audience that was 70% against him, and with a questioner who's religious philosophy unquestionably differed from his own.

This was a major mistake. Obama is not going to win a forum on Christianity. What he needed was a forum with mothers of fallen soldiers or with people who lost their jobs under Bush. The conventional wisdom has become that Obama is terrible without the benefit of a teleprompter and a podium. Saddleback did nothing to change that.

Third, McCain is controlling the media, the discourse, and the message. What are the three current themes of the campaign? Celebrity, drilling, and the Georgian conflict. All of which Obama loses on. It is downright embarrassing for his campaign that he has completely lost control of his own message and the direction of the race.

With McCain picking his VP a day after the close of the DNC and a convention-bounce unlikely, Obama needs to take some drastic steps immediately to regain control of the race.