Piggyback

Just to piggyback off of Official Scorer's post, I thought I would add my own thoughts with 50 days left in the race.
Although, as Official Scorer correctly points out, Obama has been on the national stage for 10 months, it is only now that most independents in America are truly starting to pay attention to this race. According to the latest Rasmussen battleground state polls, 1 in 5 voters say they could still change their mind before election day.

Toward the end of 2007, Obama was facing a similar problem in the polls in Iowa as he is facing nationally today. But even as the fall passed along, many Iowans weren't paying too much attention to the race. If Democrats were forced to say who they were voting for, Clinton (see: Most powerful family in Democratic politics over the last two decades) or Edwards (see: second place finish in Iowa in 2004) were the default choices.

Yet, once it got close to election time, people HAD to pay attention. As the date neared, Obama's stock skyrocketed and he ended up winning with a comfortable 7 point margin. When caucus goers started paying attention, Obama surged to the lead. The key factor (and I'll say this time an again) was that Obama had an incredible field operation in place to capitalize on the shift of momentum as people were getting to know who he was.

On Nov. 10, Obama gave an incredible speech at the Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Iowa. Looking back, it was significant that this speech was given LATE in the race. Just as his supporters were giving up hope that there was anything he could do to shift the momentum, he busted out a monster. But timing was everything. I think he knew he had to wait until people were paying attention. And, he knew that he didn't want to peak to soon. As Hedi Klum says of fashion, but is equally true with politics, "One day you're on, the next day you're out."

In the General, Obama is still relatively unknown. Yes, those of us that have been paying attention incessantly for the last 20 months know everything about Obama and McCain. But most independent Americans wait until after the conventions and Labor Day to make up their mind. McCain may be up in the polls - his convention did an incredible job of rallying his base and their presence in the polls as supporters has given him a boost - but until we get past the first debate or two, and people have had a few weeks to pay attention to the candidates, we won't know where independents are shifting. As Official Scorer pointed out, the hope is that, the closer we get to election day, more people will start paying attention, and Obama will become less of an unknown. People will start to feel comfortable with Obama. As this happens, as in Iowa, the momentum will shift. But I don't think Obama wants this to happen too soon. No trainer of a three-year old dirt horse in America wants his charge to peak in April when the Kentucky Derby is in May.

As he did in Iowa, if momentum starts to shift, Obama will have the resources (see: $66 million raised in August) and the field operations to capitalize.