In a new Insider Advantage poll, it appears McCain has taken a 8 point lead in Florida. While that somewhat correlates with the 7-point lead that Quinnipiac shows, there is something amiss about this poll.
The fact that it reports that of adults 18-29 Barack Obama is only leading by 3 points. Within the margin of error?!? Doubtful to impossible. What is actually occurring is the problem with land-line phone polls. What upwardly-mobile 18-29 year-old do you know that has a landline. I know zero.
That's right. Of my 110 Facebook friends, the only ones that have landlines are those that live with their parents. Think about that sample size. Even if Barack only has a 10-point lead among the cell phone crowd, with over 1 million people have reached voting age in Florida since 2004, how many of those one million are cell phone users?
1 comment:
I have a landline and would consider myself an upwardly-mobile 18-29 year-old...
That aside, I've enjoyed your blog immensely. A vote for Palin means the country is failin’. I have a theory that she is, in fact, the secret love child of Bill O’Reilly and Katherine Kersten. I also have a theory that Heath Ledger is the father of Bristol Palin’s unborn child – clearly McCain’s people (with the help of the Olsen twins) are trying to back-door their way to some Batman bling.
Thougths?
Post a Comment