What do these four men have in common?

This just in: Zimbabwe's opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai and President Robert Mugabe have reached a deal to share power and control of the country.

After mediating four days of talks in Harare, South African President Thabo Mbeki said the deal would be signed and made public on Monday. The government and MDC had earlier agreed that Mr Tsvangirai would be PM and Mr Mugabe stay as president. He said the exact composition of the new government was still being worked out but refused to be drawn on details.

This got me to wondering, if these two can share control of Zimbabwe, why can’t we figure out who controls the Minnesota Twins starting rotation? With the absence of a Brad Radke or Johan Santana, our rotation is a bit like a leaderless nation… who will we turn to when it really counts? Since Zimbabwe gets two leaders, I figured the Twins should as well.

I set out to answer the question: What pair should start the playoffs for the Twins?

I took a look at each of the starting pitchers last 5 starts – some when the Twins were winning, and some during this horrid stretch of late. I don’t think you can include the entire season because hot (or cold) pitchers can often change the face of a playoff series (anyone remember k-rod circa 2002?). I focused on certain statistics, which I outline below, but tried to stick with stuff that could be attributed to the pitching, and not something else…

The twins defense, often vaunted as one of the best in the business, has the third most errors (99 in 145 games) in the American League, only the Tigers (105) and Rangers (119) fielders have been statistically worse this year. For that reason, looking at runs allowed, along with several other categories, was out. In addition, based on no statistical data at all, my own bias has led me to the conclusion that manager Ron Gardenhire goes to the Twins bullpen too early, too often, and with inconsistent predictability. For that reason, I focused on pitching averages or ratios, without letting matter the numbers of innings that he allowed his starters to pitch in a given outing. I threw out things like Win Loss record and ERA because I don’t think they are good predictors of what will happen in the future.

I tried to focus on the things over which pitchers had the most control: Walks, Strikeouts, and Homeruns are the only things in which no fielder has any real control over. These three things received the most consideration. Secondary things were WHIP, batting average, and slugging percentage. The “range” of fielders behind the pitchers matter for these, but Gomez and Span have been great for everyone, and Delmon Young has been all-around clownish in left field no matter who is on the mound.

The results leave Liriano and Slowey far and away the clear choices to share the title of Twins “Ace,” and they should go 1-2 (in that order) if we make the playoffs. My personal favorite, Glen Perkins who has the best season record, actually finished at the bottom of the bunch in the statistics that matter, leaving Blackburn or Baker to start game three:

Strikeouts per 9 innings: Liriano (7.88), Slowey (7.82), Baker (5.13), Blackburn (4.42), Perkins (3.41)

Walks per 9 innings: Slowey (0.71), Liriano (1.97), Perkins (1.99), Blackburn (2.45), Baker (3.24)

Strikeouts per walk: Slowey (11), Liriano (4), Blackburn (1.8), Perkins (1.71), Baker (1.58)

Homeruns per 9 innings: Baker (0.27), Liriano (0.69), Slowey (0.94), Blackburn (0.99), Perkins (2.61)

Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched [WHIP]: Liriano (0.91), Slowey (1.03), Baker (1.32), Blackburn (1.34), Perkins (1.48)

Batters average: Liriano (.186), Slowey (.248), Baker (.269), Blackburn (.275), Perkins (.308)

Slugging Percentage: Liriano (0.297), Slowey (0.372), Baker (0.378), Blackburn (0.408), Perkins (0.577)