Lopsided Map

Based on a flurry of new polls, the map you see above (and now on the right side of the page), is substantially different from the one that it replaced. Additionally, the fact that McCain is pulling out of Michigan, indicates that he does not believe it to be really in play. So what "steal" states does McCain have a shot in? The bottom line is: Not many.

McCain very well could win New Hampshire, a state that Kerry won and that Obama lost to Clinton in the primary. The problem is that New Hampshire is only worth 4 electoral votes. As you can see from the above map, Obama has leads of five or more points in states worth 269 electoral votes. He needs only to pick up ONE more state and he wins the election. Two or three more, and it begins to border on a landslide.

There is little chance he is going to somehow win Wisconsin (where he reportedly put his Michigan staffers) but lose Ohio. That theory is just nonsensical. What makes more sense is that the mid-west is a (to use Palin's word) microcosm of the country, and that he will do well in OH, PA, IN, WI, etc. when his national numbers are good. The Southwest however is different enough on a state-by state basis that he would probably do well to focus there.

Of the four states bordering Arizona, McCain is losing by substantial margins in California and New Mexico, and is deadlocked with Obama in Nevada. He is winning the LDS-encrusted Utah. By keeping the focus on Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, McCain can centralize his message to a type of western maverick that has been the centerpiece of his campign, and then win the election if everything else goes right.

McCain loves the idea of "new clear" power and yet he is still leading in Nevada. They like his Maverick image. McCain is one of the few Republicans who has a track record of supporting efforts to curb global warming. This should play well in Colorado. And the mere fact that McCain was up front in the fight for immigration reform should play well in New Mexico.

Each of those states has a unique play for McCain in ways that I suspect the flyover/rustbelt/midwestern states do not.

[UPDATE: From the McCain campaign: "Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) now must win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota in order to get enough electoral votes to win the presidency." This is stunning. To have that type of tacit admission that the campaign is not going well, and that you NEED to steal a state to even have a chance (would put him 10 shy of the 270 electoral votes he needs to win), is a precarious position. I promise we will post more on this after the debate.]