The Test of Champions

They call the Belmont Stakes the "Test of Champions," and undoubtedly today at Belmont, it appears that the stakes are huge. But are they? Will tonight's debate really matter?



As you can see from the graph above, nearly 8 percent of voters remain undecided. That is almost twice what it was in 2004 with the same 28 days to go. In this election, the number of undecideds dropped substantially over the period of the two conventions, but has essentially tapered off since. Obama undoubtedly took most of those undecideds, which I am going to suggest are the Hillary-dems, and solidified his base. That is supported by the most recent WashPost/ABC poll in Ohio, a state where Hillary won, which indicated that Obama's supporters are nearly twice as enthusiastic as McCain's. But, as much as Howard Wolfson believes this race is over, the high number of undecided voters suggest otherwise.

And the nuggets from a Hotline/FD poll released today provide more credence of a wide open race. According to their poll of 908 likely voters, Obama leads McCain 46% to 44% with 9% undecided. Furthermore, Independent voters favor McCain on the economy by an 8 pt. margin (42-34%). So when the economy is the top issue, and McCain is favored on that subject by the group that is going to swing the economy, it means that Obama still has some voters he needs to sell himself to.

An article published in today's edition of Politico, suggests that the McCain camp will focus on people's fears that

"[Obama's plan] is dangerous to the economy. Obama is calling for higher taxes, historical spending and a huge increase in regulation that will hamper American business. Contrast that with McCain’s message of lower taxes and freezing spending. On foreign policy and national security, Obama is a risky bet in a hostile world."

The strategy for tonight?

“McCain needs to keep banging those themes over and over again, so on Election Day voters think Obama is just not ready for this. The McCain campaign needs to feed the doubt people have about Barack Obama. There is a lot of doubt out there."

The other issue is that while a visit to the RCP no-ties map suggests Obama is in a commanding position, very few of those averages actually have him hitting the 50% mark. And anytime a candidate is polling at less than 50%, it means that there are enough undecideds out there to swing the race the other direction. If Obama is going to put this race away, he can go a long way to doing so tonight, by appearing level-headed to McCain's less-than-steady leadership.

If he engages McCain, and the recent Obama taunts about McCain not looking at him suggest that he wants a staring contest, Obama may lose his footing. Now is not the time to prove your mettle, its the time to offer real solutions for a financial crisis. While it would be a half-joke to say that the first one to effectively explain the benefits of Keynesian economics, without using the words Keynes or economics, wins ... it's not that far off. The more McCain can make himself out to be a populist, the more he can siphon off those undecideds who are still hung up on Senator Obama's middle name.