As I posted back in August, Florida could be a nail in McCain's coffin. It is inconceivable that he can get to 270 electoral votes, after disavowing Michigan, without Florida.
But, for the first time this year, based on five consecutive polls showing McCain behind, we have Florida tipping to Obama. Not only is McCain behind in Florida, but the average of the polls taken just in October, shows Obama up by 5 points ... well beyond most margins of error. The one concern is obviously that many snowbirds, who reside in NY or NJ in the summer months, are just now coming back to Florida for the fall. They are likely seniors, a key McCain bloc, and up to this point, are likley undersampled. Whether they make up 5 percent is doubtful, but should this race tighten any more, they could be a factor.
Note: RCP avg. has Obama +7.7 ... if that holds, which we do not believe it will, this map will continue to get bluer.
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