Fear not, what you see above is not our latest predictive model. It is the current dream scenario advanced by the McCain campaign. And I already know what Left Wing Jumper is going to say, "But Virginia is rock solid blue right now!" And that may be. But the beauty of this scenario from the McCain perspective is that it includes some padding. It allows Obama to win one of the states in play, such as Virginia or Missouri or Nevada, without winning the Electoral College.
More and more it is looking like the entire race is coming down to Pennsylvania; a situation that distinctly favors Obama. However the large Obama lead (+11, RCP) appears, it is almost entirely based on a single poll, the Morning Call tracking poll. Furthermore the poll relies on a sample of voters that has 11% more Democrats than Republicans. The problem with this is that in the most recent presidential election (2004) the party ID breakdown was 41-39 (or D+2).
What does this mean? That if the GOP gets the turnout that they had in 2004 along with a bit of Clinton backlash (see: 2008 Democratic Pennsylvania primary), the race is a two point race. In other words, well within the margin of error.
There is little question that McCain is going all-in on Pennsylvania. At least one prominent Pennsylvanian is worried.
James Carville once said, "Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in the middle." Trust me ... McCain/Palin is running very strong in Alabama.
[UPDATE: Even Politico says, "It’s an unenviable position to be in, except for one thing: Nearly everyone in a position to know thinks the race for Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes is considerably tighter than what recent polls reveal."]
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