Some Early Predictions

A teaser for the next few days:

We'll be out with our full election 2008 predictions over the weekend or by Monday at the latest.

Also, we'll likely be live-blogging on Tuesday night. So, as you watch the election returns, keep checking back in with our blog.

--

Now - the early predictions. I made these about 10 days ago, but I am feeling even more confident with them right now. The 2008 Presidential Election will feature:

• The highest voter turnout (by percentage) since 1908.
• The highest black voter turnout (by percentage) ever.
• A 3.5% win by Barack Obama (Yeah, I said it)
  

ACORN: No Joking Matter

I know some on here like to make jokes about ACORN ... but we now have proof that they intend to disrupt voting in places like Florida:

VERO BEACH — A frisky squirrel caused a 1 ½-hour power outage affecting 800 customers including the Indian River County Library and Courthouse on Thursday morning, city power officials said.

The outage slowed - but didn't stop - early voting at the library. During the outage, early voting went on by flashlight. Further information about how the votes were processed was not immediately available.

At about 8:45 a.m., a squirrel leaped from a tree onto a power line, causing a fire that tripped an electrical switch, knocking out a power line feeding a section of the downtown, said Randall McCamish, the city’s director of electrical transmission and distribution.

The dead squirrel was found lying on the ground.

Once the power was restored, early voting continued as usual.

...

No doubt we can blame it on an acorn.

More Haloween Jokes

+ + =

Sack knocks another one out of the ballpark.

A ghostly, ghastly Friday, indeed

I know it’s Friday, and nobody wants to read a long blog post. But this is worth it. I found this on wftv’s web page. This was actually written. And published. By a person.

Personally, I think it should be called WTF TV. It’s not so much the content. It’s Haloween, so it shouldn’t surprise us that there are ghosts rising from their graves to cast votes in this all-important election. That happens. What is far more surprising is that this was actually posted by a Florida TV station. If you ever wondered the intelligence of our citizenry, look no further than the sources of their information.

I present you with Dead People Voting Throughout Florida, published Thursday, October 30, 2008, on Channel 9's wftv.com: (I have not altered anything from the original content).

VOLUSIA COUNTY, Fla. –

Thousands of dead Floridians are registered to vote and some in Central Florida had ballots cast in their names long after their deaths.

"That is scary," said Jim Branch.

Branch's mother Marjorie died in 2004 but someone voted for her in 2006. Branch had tried to get his mother removed from the voter rolls.

"It was much easier for me calling Social Security and taking her off not getting any more checks here, than it was that (voter registration)," he sid.

County records show James Santiago voted in the 2006 general election. He too, was dead. His wife, Joann, sees this as an open invitation for voter fraud.

"I think it leaves it open to sign his name, during an election, especially an important one like this year," said Joann.

Channel Nine discovered 1,636 registered voters in Central Florida are dead.

"This is what makes Supervisors of Elections lose sleep at night," said Volusia County Supervisor of Elections Ann McFall.

McFall said it used to be easy to clear out voter rolls.

"We had two people who did nothing but cut obituary notices out of the papers," she said.

"That's how we found out someone died."

But 2002's Help America Vote act, which made it easier to register to vote, also made it more difficult to remove voters from the rolls. But Orange County Election Supervisor

Bill Cowles doesn't worry. "I think the mechanisms are in place. There's enough checks and balances in place," he said.

However, 90 days before the election, voter rolls can't be changed and if the state doesn't tell elections offices a voter has died, that voter can be on the rolls for years.

"The minute I said he was deceased, they should've made note, they should've done whatever they had to do, the people sitting behind that table, they should have done something," said Joann Santiago

Elections supervisors say they are pushing the state to allow them to accept death certificates from families as reasonable evidence to remove dead voters from the rolls.

If this doesn’t brighten (sarcastically) your Friday, I’m not sure what will. I’m cutting out of work early today. I’ve got some redistributionist regulatory work to do.

Very Slow Thursday

Since the day is going so slowly, I figure everyone needs a bit of a pick-me-up. So some quick trivia for ya, and then a little visit from Terry Tate.

I wonder what kind of odds could you have gotten in 1908 that a black dude would get elected president before the Cubs won the Series again? -- Nate Silver

But don't pay out those bets too quickly, because in every Presidential Election year that the Los Angeles Lakers went to the NBA Finals, the Republican candidate won (1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000, 2004, 2008).

Before you vote...

Read this

This was passed on to me by a more conservative friend...

I wish everyone a good day. I'm going to take off work early and spend my afternoon redistributing.

A Man Without a Home

On IMDB, the plot for the movie The Terminal is described like this:

While Viktor Navorski is en route to the U.S. to fulfill a wish of his late father's, there is a coup in the Eastern European country in which he lives. When he lands at JFK, he learns that his country is no longer recognized by the U.S. so he cannot enter - and he can't go home either, because all planes to his country are canceled. While waiting in this limbo, Viktor takes up residence in JFK Terminal and learns another definition of home.

I haven't seen the movie, but it's pretty easy to imagine.

Thinking about this movie (again, I haven't seen it), makes me think about another man without a home. Joseph Isadore "Joe" Lieberman. Oh how the mighty - or not so mighty - have fallen.

It wasn't so long ago the Lieberman was traveling the country, and the world with his homeboy, J-Mac. Lieberman served a useful purpose for J-Mac. When J-Mac didn't know the difference between Sunni and Shia Muslims, and didn't even know that there was a dispute between the two denominations of Islam, Lieberman was there to help him out. Hey, who could blame J-Mac? Sunnis and Shia's have only been fighting for 1,400 years.

Lieberman also acted as a surrogate and attack dog for J-Mac throughout this campaign. Lieberman questioned Obama and attacked Obama throughout the spring and summer. Who could really blame him? He was J-Mac's biggest supporter. He was the representation of all that was Mavericky about J-Mac. I mean, how many times has J-Mac talked about reaching accross the isle to his friend, Joe "the Senator?" Liberman had the inside track to the VP slot on J-Mac's ticket. They were best friends. Lieberman, however, wasn't selected to be VP (weren't they best friends!?!). J-Mac decided that this person would be a better VP candidated that Lierberman:

Ohhhhh. Joe "the Senator" must be angry. He was there for J-Mac. He had J-Mac's back. He helped him out. He knew the difference between Sunni and Shia. Sarah Palin can't even claim that much.

It wasn't too long ago that Joe "the Senator" was a Democrat (capital 'D'). He was on a Democratic ticket that won the popular vote for the Presidency only 8 years ago. Since then, however, his pro-war, pro-Bush, and pro-J-Mac stance has got him in trouble. In 2006, he lost his primary election, as an incumbent. He ended up winning the election as an Independent (capital 'I').

This fall, for a time, even after he got snubbed by J-Mac, Joe "the Senator" probably thought things would be OK. "J-Mac & Trig's mom" had a nice ring to it. It seemed like they might even win this election. Joe "the Senator" could keep his position as a Senator, or possibly take a cushy appointment in a J-Mac administration. But things took a turn for the worse. That 'unqualified' Obama guy took a lead in the polls. Then he extended that lead. All of a sudden it began to look like he might win the election.

Even worse for Joe "the Senator" was the fact that it doesn't appear that 2006 was the only Democratic landslide that we are going to see this decade. 2008 is shaping up to produce even more gains for the Democratic party. And for Joe "the Senator," this isn't good news. Joe "the Senator" is the chairman of two important committees in the Senate. Sure, the Democrats control the Senate and Joe "the Senator" isn't a Democrat. But he used to be. And, he typically caucuses with Democrats (unless he's chosing a Presidential candidate). Moreover, the Democrats, in the Senate, are clinging to a 51-49 majority in the Senate. This majority includes Joe "the Senator." They need Joe "the Senator" to keep their majority. They wouldn't take away his prized chairmanship positions because they need his vote.

But, the landslide is going to come. The Democrats are going to pick up anywhere between 5 and 9 seats in the Senate next Tuesday. All of a sudden, Joe's vote won't be so important to the Democrats. The Democratic leadership won't need to cajole and masage the ego of Joe "the Senator" anymore. And his chairmanships? Harry Reid can give them to whomever he damn well pleases. Do we think that Joe sees the writing on the wall? Earlier this week, Lieberman couldn't wait any longer to find the nearest news agency to proclaim his new found respect for Sen. Obama:

When I go out, I say, 'I have a lot of respect for Sen. Obama. He's bright. He's eloquent.'

Who is Joe fooling with this act of his? Anyone? He'd have to be a far better actor to pull of this switch-a-roo. He'd have to win an Oscar, just like Tom Hanks has, once or twice in his career. Joe, I know Tom Hanks. And you're no Tom Hanks.

Simpsons Strike Again

More reports of touch screens moving votes from Obama to McCain. This time in Texas.

According to CNN:

A caller from Beaumont, Texas reports that his mother, who he accompanied to the polls, had problems assuring the electronic touch screen machine was accurately recording her preference for Sen. Barack Obama. “She went to punch the selection for Obama and it flipped to McCain,” the caller said.

Midnight Train to Georgia

I know its hard to imagine, but there is widespread voting issues going on in Georgia. We are still a week away from election day and already there are problems.

We have poll workers illegally voting for people.

We have people not being registered because they are Black.

We have ballots that only show Republicans.

We have a beautiful First Amendment issue. Left Wing Jumper, you taking Con Law yet?

Some people have issues cause they haven't voted since they got to choose between Clinton and Bush.

And a shockingly brazen attempt to commit about six felonies (one less than Sen. Stevens).

But the most serious issue appears to be this one.

What? Our votes don't "actually" count? WTF?

Oh, and proof that someone actually reads our blog.

One week to go

This will be the final map we publish until sometime late Monday night. This is the race as best we see it. Obviously the map can change, but key point is the every "Kerry state" is safely blue (with the exception of New Hampshire), along with Iowa and New Mexico. If that holds, Obama needs just one more state, any state, and victory is his.

When to vote?

For most of you out there in non-swing states, you will be voting on November 4th. But for those of you in Virginia (and presumably other swing states) you will want to take note of a document that was just faxed to me by the Virginia Board of Elections.

On Friday, in an emergency session of the General Assembly, in an effort to reduce the burden of a massive turnout (and to avoid the type of legal liability that has already resulted in one law suit), the State of Virginia has decided to spread voting out over two days.

You can read the full text of the press release below, but I just wanted anyone in Virginia to know when they were supposed to vote.

Doh!

Early voting has started, and all signs point to the likelihood that this may be the presidential election with the greatest voter turnout in US history. I believe that this favors Obama, but with no basis for that belief, I'll just keep punching out this blog post.

In a recent CNN poll, 42 percent of those surveyed said they were not confident that their votes could be "accurately cast and counted." That number is up 15 percentage points from a similar poll conducted in 2004. 42 percent! Funny that our President Bush claimed that the votes which were cast for the President of Iran (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad) three years ago were done so "through an electoral process that ignores the basic requirements of democracy." On a similar note, politicians and journalists in many western countries (including the US, Germany, and Great Britain) questioned the legitimacy of the Russian Presidential election of 2008, which saw Dmitry Medvedev win with an overwhelming majority.

If almost half this country wonders whether their votes will be accurately counted, how democratic is our system?

As of Tuesday, 29 states were accepting early ballots, and election officials are reporting record turnouts. Voting problems, ranging from computer glitches to long lines, have been reported in a few states.

Let's take a look at Calvin Thomas, an 81-year-old West Virginian, who took advantage of the opportunity to vote early. Let's see if his vote was counted more democratically than if his name were say... Calvin Thomaskov or Calvin Thomasakbari.

Thomas, an American, has been voting since the 1948 presidential election, when he was only 21 years old. That's 60 years (or 15 presidential elections). He walked into his voting booth, "pushed the Democrat ticket, and it jumped to the Republican ticket for president of the United States." The machine just switched his vote.

From CNN.com on October 24, 2008:

The same thing happened to his daughter, Micki Clendenin, when she cast her ballot. In both cases, poll workers at the site had them touch the screen a few more times, and the voting machine changed their ballot to their candidate choice.

"The lady came in, and she was -- very nicely, she just said, 'it's just been doing that.' She said, 'just hit it again.' So we hit it again, and this time it did go to Obama," Clendenin said.

At this point, I have to laugh, and wonder. When she said "just hit it again," were they just voting for McCain a few more times? A couple votes for McCain... “touch the screen a few more times"… a couple more for McCain... and... there we go: ONE VOTE for Mr. Obama. NICE!

By this point, I am really laughing, because one would have to think "you can't make this stuff up!"

But, I know I have seen this somewhere before: Matt Groening and James Brooks, who invented "The Simpsons," DID MAKE THIS STUFF UP.

See below from the October 19th, 2008 episode (five days before Calvin's experience):

Homer Simpson vote Obama
by divertissonsnous

Audrey Seiler, Susan Smith redux ...

Late yesterday we received word (via a massive headline on Drudge) that a woman had been attacked by a black Obama supporter because he was upset that she had a McCain bumper sticker (and that she was White ... obv). I am posting the underscaled version that was on Drudge's site last night:

The "victim" even claimed that the attacker carved a B on her face. What is so classic is that mere moments after the story went up, I received this message via Gmail from Left Wing Jumper:

3:30 PM me: http://www.thepittsburghchannel.com/news/17789356/detail.html

LWJ: seems sketchy

3:31 PM

LWJ: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Susan_Smith

me: damn that was quick

The reason I responded "damn that was quick" was not to be dismissive of his theory, but to indicate that we had both seen this story before. Audrey Seiler was the University of Wisconsin Student went missing for a few cold nights in Madison. At the time, both LWJ and I were called mysogenists and other such names when we both claimed Ms. Seiler was crying wolf. Of course, we all learned later that she had faked her own abduction, then blamed it on an unknown black assailant.

Susan Smith set the precedent of these cases in 1994 when she initially reported to police that she had been carjacked by a black man who drove away with her sons still in the car. Smith made tearful pleas on television for the rescue and return of her children. The police even put the media in a frenzy by releasing this 'sketch' of the attacker:



Of course, a few days later, Smith confessed to letting the car, with the boys inside, sink in a nearby lake.

What makes the case of the McCain worker - she is a College Republican up from Texas working in PA for the election - so funny is that a close examination of the B shows that it is backwards ... but if done in front of a mirror would look correct.

Today, less than 24 hours after the "attack" we receive word that this afternoon, a Pittsburgh police commander told the news media that the "victim" confessed to making up the story.

Too bad LWJ was not on the case, or it would have been solved 22 hours sooner. However before she recanted her statement, she did spend time with a sketch artist and rendered a few sketches of the attacker ...

She is sure it was either him











or him


or him


or him!


[UPDATE: Didn't see this last night, but apparently Senator McCain’s quest for the presidency is over, forever linked to race-baiting.]

[UPDATE #2: You gotta call it like you see it, and the RCP Blog has done just that:

Ashley Todd, the woman who told police she had been mugged by a black man who scratched the letter "B" into her face after seeing a McCain bumper sticker on her car, has now admitted she made the whole thing up, according to this report from KDKA.

What a disgrace.

This hardly ranks as one of the great racial hate crimes hoaxes of all time - Tawana Brawley, Susan Smith, and the Duke Lacrosse case were all far more egregious and damaging to the country's race relations - but it still is just a dirty and utterly irresponsible act that defies logic and deserves condemnation.

I couldn't agree more. --LWJ]

Joe Got Served

I wonder if McCain would really be using Obama's encounter with Joe the Plumber -- McCain claims it was Obama who rudely shoved Joe's personal life into the spotlight when it was McCain who mentioned the plumber (not really a plumber) 21 times in the thrid debate -- if Americans could see the entire exchange between Obama and Joe (not really Joe). Joe is clearly looking to pick a fight, and Obama sits him down in a hurry. Just watch the entire clip. If Obama could spend 5 minutes with every undecided voter in America, this truly would be a landslide.

Oh wait, Obama plans to spend 30 minutes in American's living rooms next Wednesday. No wonder McCain isn't even planning on attending his own victory rally.

Back to the Future (Part I): The Economy

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." -- George Santayana, poet and philosopher

Credit
... then
After the the United States recovered from a postwar recession in 1921, its economy grew at a healthy annual rate. American workers produced more goods more efficiently, and their incomes increased, if not quite so quickly as the profits born from their greater productivity.¹ Many Americans' optimism grew too: they thought that they had entered a new era of prosperity, when more Americans could afford more luxury goods and live, at least materially, better lives than ever before. So securely did they hold this belief that they accepted newly available offers of credit in order to buy what they could not afford from their own pockets. By the end of the decade Americans were living lives well-furnished with debt.² More than anything, they bought cars.³ The production, purchase, and financing of automobiles drove the perception and reality of American prosperity in the 1920s. Often, however, the ready credit of the 1920s came at a price, an annual interest rate of around 30 percent on an installment plan for a new car.⁴

---

... now
After the devastating attacks on 9/11, the American economy began to grow at a steady pace. Americans became the most productive workforce in the world. What initially led the economy out of the period post-terrorist attacks was the multi-brand "Keep America Rolling" campaign of U.S. automakers. This marketing strategy led to the affordability of big bulky gas-guzzling SUVs which, in turn allowed Americans to re-suburbanize. This directly lead to two outcomes: A massive increase in home prices and home values and record profits for the oil companies. While some did get financing at zero or near zero percent on their autos, a substantial number of people purchased their homes with adjustable rate mortgages and sub prime rates.

The Stock Market
... then
By 1925, Wall Street men knew, and the Wall Street Journal reported, that they were working in "the kind of market that makes for larger commissions than profits."⁵ Watching the increase in trading on the exchanges and in the borrowing to trade on the exchanges, the Federal Reserve decided to make it more expensive to borrow money.⁶ Then on October 24, 1929, Black Thursday, the market crashed. Some, like John D. Rockafeller, claimed that they would continue to buy, but by mid-November, more than a third of the stock market's value had vanished.⁷ Facing a dubious future, Americans made important decisions not to buy. Particularly, they stopped buying the expensive durable goods like cars they had learned to buy on credit.⁸

---

... now
By the summer of 2007 noted TV personality and investment guru Jim Cramer went on television and gave notice that a major and serious financial crises was developing. Although insiders knew for nearly a year of the pending financial crisis, the Federal Reserve continued to raise rates, making it more expensive to borrow money. Then on September 29, 2008 the DOW had its largest single day point drop in history. Some, like investor Warren Buffet espoused confidence, but many considered the damage too great. In the past year Americans had drastically cut their spending: buying less cars, and consuming less and less fuel.


¹George Soule, Prosperity Decade: From War to Depression, 1917-1929 (New York: Rinehart, 1947), 220.
²Eric Rauchway, The Great Depression & The New Deal (New York: Oxford University Press, 2008), 13.
³Martha L. Olney, Buy Now, Pay Later: Advertising, Credit, and Consumer Durables in the 1920s (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1991), 40.
⁴Ibid., 115.
⁵"Broad Street Gossip," Wall Street Journal, 1/13/1928, 2.
⁶Rauchway, 17.
⁷John Brooks, Once in Golconda: A True Drama of Wall Street (New York: Wiley Investment Classics, 1999), 119.
⁶Rauchway, 19.

Keystone Cops

Fear not, what you see above is not our latest predictive model. It is the current dream scenario advanced by the McCain campaign. And I already know what Left Wing Jumper is going to say, "But Virginia is rock solid blue right now!" And that may be. But the beauty of this scenario from the McCain perspective is that it includes some padding. It allows Obama to win one of the states in play, such as Virginia or Missouri or Nevada, without winning the Electoral College.

More and more it is looking like the entire race is coming down to Pennsylvania; a situation that distinctly favors Obama. However the large Obama lead (+11, RCP) appears, it is almost entirely based on a single poll, the Morning Call tracking poll. Furthermore the poll relies on a sample of voters that has 11% more Democrats than Republicans. The problem with this is that in the most recent presidential election (2004) the party ID breakdown was 41-39 (or D+2).

What does this mean? That if the GOP gets the turnout that they had in 2004 along with a bit of Clinton backlash (see: 2008 Democratic Pennsylvania primary), the race is a two point race. In other words, well within the margin of error.

There is little question that McCain is going all-in on Pennsylvania. At least one prominent Pennsylvanian is worried.

James Carville once said, "Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in the middle." Trust me ... McCain/Palin is running very strong in Alabama.

[UPDATE: Even Politico says, "It’s an unenviable position to be in, except for one thing: Nearly everyone in a position to know thinks the race for Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes is considerably tighter than what recent polls reveal."]

Where do we stand?

We are currently 18 days and four hours away from knowing who the next President of the United States will be (you can take a peek at the calender to the right to know the exact number of seconds).

At this moment this is the our best guess at the state-by-state breakdown of the race:


The one obvious thing to note is that there continues to be a lot of blue. Now even the major networks are noticing this and have begin to re-shape their election night coverage. From Politico:

Network news executives said they are preparing for an unusual Election Night challenge: How to be honest with the audience, and still keep them tuned in, if the race between John McCain and Barack Obama is effectively decided before most Americans have finished dinner. The quandary is highlighted by Virginia, a state that has not voted Democratic for president since 1964 but where Obama is now leading in polls. [Because] there is no realistic McCain electoral college strategy that does not depend on winning the Old Dominion, the networks want to be prepared for an early end to the night.

However, while polling has shown Obama up in some traditionally red states, in states such as Ohio, the Obama campaign believes victory depends on persuading more voters to support him. Furthermore, the perilous lead in Florida that Obama held the last time we mapped the race; looks to have evaporated. But new polling shows the race essentially tied in North Dakota, and very tight in West Virginia.

Based on this information, along with the sourcing we have been receiving from our contacts on the ground, we see Obama with a 288-194 lead over his rival with 56 electoral votes left undecided. Even with national polling appearing to turn his direction, to win McCain will need to capture all of the states in "too-close-to-call" and steal two of the states currently projected for Obama.

Phall Phever!

I don't want to disappoint Dark Horse, but McCain obviously won the debate. Whew that's off my chest. Now some massively breaking news that somehow only our readers get first. So without further adieu ...

BREAKING NEWS!

First, researchers in Davos, Switzerland have made an incredible discovery: There is only one October. (Personally, I am stunned by this, as are, I am sure, the Chicago Cubs. I just hope Mr. McCain doesn't know this, because its probably better if he thinks they are going to "run it back" a few days after the election).

Second, "Joe the Plumber," America's newest celebrity ... NOT EVEN REGISTERED TO VOTE. Oops! (So, Mr. McCain, ahem ... why did you spend half of your allotted time in the debate last night slobbing the knob of a man who cannot even vote for you?)

Third, the election isn't over! I know if you read most websites and magazines they will tell you that the race is over. But only Karl Rove and the readers of this blog know that the election is not over.

Fourth, (and this is less about breaking news and more of my personal commentary) Obama is probably wishing that the world series had been between the Dodgers and Red Sox. Why? Because Obama purchased half-hour blocks of time on every major network for a prime-time Obama infomercial the Wednesday before the election.

The problem? Game Six (if necessary) will be delayed twenty minutes to allow for the completion of Obama's address. Think the casual undecided voters in the all-important key swing states of Pennsylvania and Florida might be a little peeved. Yep.

Who won...?

I know that Official Scorer is probably going to jump on here and claim that John McCain won that debate but I can tell you right now that Barack Obama DOMINATED and sat that dude down. I was jumping out of my seat waving my "donkey towel" at the TV and yelling "C'mon Barack!" That white-haired ole' dude doesn't know nothin. John McCain needs to sit down and shut up. Go home, old man. Go home.

ps. On a total side note, my favorite part about the debates is that there are no commercials. It's sort of like soccer, without halftime!

Choose all that apply...

I don't like to play "follow the leader," but I think it's about time that I did what many bloggers do, and that is make a link-filled blog post with a poll at the end. So, here goes...

So much has been made of the fact that "We don't know Barack Obama." I like doing research, so, today I set out to find out about this Bo-Raqi guy. He seems interesting. He's pretty good looking (check him out!), and seems smart (I've watched the debates). So, after hours pouring over verifiable research, here's what I found out about Barack:

#1. People often get confused and think that he is biracial. More likely, he is black, which would make him the second black president. After hours of research I discovered that a gentleman named William Jefferson Clinton (which doesn't sound black), was, in fact the first black president.

#2. I discovered that Barack Obama is, most likely, a Muslim. There were hundreds of bloggers on many sites that claimed to have sensative knowledge that was proof of him being a Muslim. Many people claimed that his ties to Reverand Jeremiah Wright (who is also a Muslim) prove that he is a Muslim. Of course, other people claimed that Mother Teresa, Pope John Paul II, and Billy Graham were also Muslim, so this was inconclusive.

#3. Without a doubt, the most conclusive evidence surrounded the claim that Obama is the biggest celebrity in the world. This cannot be true. What about people like Ronaldinho, Nelson Mandella, Tiger Woods, and the yellow teletubby? All of these people, I'm sure, are bigger celebrities than Barack. There's a chance, however, that he is a European Celebrity, which might even be worse in the book of John McCain. I'll leave that up to you to decide.

#4. This is the first of this that I've heard, but it's probably true: Barack Obama cheated on his wife with Vera Baker. I know, I know. You probably think that he's a good, moral, family man, but who knows?!? The first black president wasn't all that faithful, so how much can we expect from the second?

#5. More recently, the Joe Six-packs of this great country have started an interesting rumor, one that -- surprisingly -- has some merit to it. They claim that Barack Obama is gay. Well, maybe not gay, but he would be the first gay president, just like that William Jefferson Clinton guy was the first president to say "I did not have sex with that woman," on national TV.

I also heard another claim that might be true, but just didn't meet my high standards of evidence and citable data: Obama has a problem with asian people.

#6. However, I've watched lots of police investigation-type shows, and I know that things often go deeper than you think. You can't just look at the obvious things that everyone knows (like the stuff above). After all of my extensive, scholarly research, one scarry, amazing, and distrubing thing surfaced:

Obama is not human at all. Instead, Obama is actually an Antarctican penguin, posing as a Gay-black-muslim-European Celebrity who cheats on his wife with Reading Rainbow authors and runs for President. So, all of you people who think he is any of those things READ MY BLOG: you are wrong. He is just faking you out, big time. Boo-yeah. I was right all along. I knew that dude was a penguin when I first laid eyes on him.

You don't believe me? Well, decide for yourself, but be careful and make sure you do your research. Which of the following IS true about Obama? Choose all that apply...

Online Surveys & Market Research

And the winners are...

Now that the stock market has slightly rebounded. We can all laugh. Ok, so we're still down a couple trillion dollars as a nation, but nothing can lighten the mood like a few wanna-be "emo" stock-brokers. Are these guys trying out for a spot in Dashboard Confessional's next music video?

Without further ado, the winners are...

1. From NS: Alec Baldwin's cousin just found out his '30 Rock' spin off got canceled.

2. From both MR and AM: "I should have taken the blue pill."*

3. From AM: "What time is the Titanic picking us up honey?"

4. Tie! From AM: Talking to the guy behind him... "I'll trade you Martin Gramatica and Rex Grossman for a Michael Bolton "O'Canada" single."
From NS: This guy is clearly talking to coworker Milton Wadums about Milton's missing Swingline stapler.

5. From AM: "I can't believe I sharted twice in the same day"

Honorable mentions go to NS and MR for their captions to picture number 5, which was, by far, my favorite photo.

From NS: Garf in 35 years.
From MR: "Boy I look good in my red tie....'pound that.'"

*For those of you who don't know this, "I should have taken the blue pill" is a reference to the 1999 Keanu Reeves thriller The Matrix . In context, this line is hilarious.

Thank you to my three respondents. I laughed a lot.

Texas Tuesday

So much is happening or has happened in the football world of the Lone Star State over the past few days that I think it deserves its own special blog post. I'll roll with the theme of the graphic to the left and break it down by the good, the bad, and the ugly.

An amazing renewal of the Red River Shootout, saw the Texas Longhorns take control of the AP Poll (and I would assume the computer rankings) and place themselves in a position to control their own destiny regarding the BCS Championship. Hat tip to Cesar Rodriguez, a phenomenal attorney in the Austin area and someone who has seen too much Longhorn bloodletting at the hands of the hated Sooners. Personally I have been a closet fan of the 'Horns since they allowed me to make about $400 on the Rose Bowl a couple years back, and it is always fun to see Bob Stoops lose.

The win also solidified Colt McCoy as a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate and it put even more emphasis on this weekend's game against the Missouri Tigers. Big-12/National Title/Bragging Rights all surely on the line Saturday night.

But all is not good in the land of Texas football. Not long after learning the fate of Tony Romo, the team learned that the NFL's hall-monitor on steroids has re-suspended Adam "Pac-Man" Jones for a period of not less than four games. That's just a brutal double whammy for a team that desperately needed some good news. However, Bill Simmons encourages Cowboys fans to look on the bright side:

"[W]e're five years away from Wade Phillips' becoming the most successful coach in college football."

The ugly involves former assistant football coach at Jim Ned High School in Tuscola. According to an indictment returned by a grand jury last Thursday, he has been charged with three counts of attempted improper relationship between educator and student, a third-degree felony punishable by two to 10 years in prison.

Apparently, Kaleb Tierce, a teacher of pre-Advanced Placement English, provided his ninth-grade class with a reading list that contained a book about a murderer who has sex with his victims' bodies. If that wasn't ugly enough, Tierce allegedly asked one girl to come to his home under a "normal pretense," then allegedly kissed her and exposed himself to her. Allegedly, he also asked another girl "what she would be willing to do for a better grade" and asked a third girl for sexual favor. The best part:

"But amid the uproar, most people in the West Texas town of 700 seemed to rally around Tierce, saying he should be reinstated because he was a great coach."

Where did Heisman candidate Colt McCoy go to school?

Jim Ned High School in Tuscola.

God bless Texas.

Mr. Erratic (Part II)

Just as McCain is attempting to 'relaunch' his campaign as being more focused and ready to "fight" to the finish, Mr. Erratic shows up again.

October 7, at the second presidential debate, John McCain said, "But I'm not going to telegraph my punches, which is what Sen. Obama did. And I'm going to act responsibly, as I have acted responsibly throughout my military career and throughout my career in the United States Senate."

Yet, CNN is already reporting, more than 24 hours before tomorrow nights debate, that McCain will attack Obama with the William Ayers connection at the debate.

The comments come after Obama and Democratic VP candidate Joe Biden were sharply critical of McCain for targeting the Illinois senator over Ayers at campaign rallies, but not when the two last met for a presidential debate.

Today, during an interview with a St. Louis radio station, McCain said, "I was astonished to hear him say that he was surprised I 'didn’t have the guts' to do that, because the fact is the question didn't come up in that fashion. I think he's probably ensured it will come up this time."

Oops.

Mr. Erratic

Barack Obama seems to have found his niche attack line against John McCain: Erratic. But, I'm somewhat surprised that he hasn't taken this attack even further. I'm a little under the eight-ball in terms of Obama's media campaign because I live in a decidedly un-swingstate. The only Obama ads I see are what I can find on the internet or what CNN might play during a newscast.

It seems to me that Obama could be doing an even better job of reminding voters of just how erratic McCain has been. This visual (from fivethirtyeight.com), pokes fun at the McCain "Hail Mary" stunts of this election cycle. These of course were the 'Celebrity' ads of mid-summer, the selection of Sarah Palin as running mate, and the 'suspension' of his campaign in late September.

But, the erratic behavior does not end there. Let's take a look at one week in September:

• On September 16, McCain, long a champion of deregulation, said, "In my administration, we're going to hold people on Wall Street responsible."
• 5 days later, the tune had changed, when McCain said, "No, I think the deregulation was probably helpful to the growth of our economy."

• On September 15, McCain now infamously said, "The fundamentals of the economy are strong."
• The SAME DAY, his campaign released a television ad saying, "The economy is in crisis."

• The next day, McCain was adamant on NBC's Today Show about the then proposed bailout of AIG: "No, I do not believe that the American taxpayer should be on the hook for AIG, and I'm glad that the Secretary Paulson is apparently taking the same line."
• But, three days later, according to the LA Times: "McCain backs AIG bailout."

• By September 24, it was time for McCain to throw a 'Hail Mary;' "Tomorrow morning, I will suspend my campaign and return to Washington."
• The next day, however, McCain campaign attack ads criticizing Obama continued to run in key battleground states. Furthermore, campaign offices never closed, and McCain surrogates continued to appear on TV touting McCain's 'action' on the bailout plan.

• On September 24, McCain also declared, "[I will not attend the debate] until we have taken action to address this crisis."
• But, two days later, even without any action being taken to address the crisis, McCain agreed to attend the debate.

And they called John Kerry a flip-flopper?

Online Surveys & Market Research

Potpourri for $400, Alex

I think we have tried to maintain a sense of originality on this site and make sure that out blog posts are original works rather than link or quote dumps. Some of us (Dark Horse) are better at that than others (Official Scorer). Nevertheless, there are several articles this morning that I wanted to draw your attention to.

First, Nate Silver, whom we adore at the Whistle, has a very insightful article about how McCain may try to use the new media (read: Drudge) to resurrect his campaign. I think Nate hits the nail on the head, and I think he gives a great explanation of why and how this might take shape. Obviously he is not unbiased in the endeavor, he is hoping that by calling it out, the move will appear to be just another stunt in the McCain campaign.

Second, Left Wing Jumper and I have been having a spirited argument (off-line for the benefit of our readers) about whether the polls are going to be accurate this year and whether some Bradley-type effect will be in play. This morning there is a revealing look at the effect by one of America's top pollsters, V. Lance Terrance, Jr. In his article, Terrance argues that there never was a Bradley effect, and that we are foolish to continue to believe it exists. He closes with this paragraph, although I strongly suggest reading the entire article:

The Deukmejian campaign tracking polls did not confirm any Bradley Effect and to interject this type of speculation into the 2008 presidential election is not only folly, but insulting to the political maturity of our nation's voters. To allow this theory to continue to persist anymore than 25 years is to damage our democracy, no matter who wins.

Third, Minnesota State-Moorhead, polling on behalf of the Fargo-Moorhead Forum, completed a survey showing Barack Obama leading John McCain 45 to 43 percent in North Dakota. The long and the short versions read the same: it's the economy stupid, and they trust Obama more on that subject. For an idea of how rare a Democratic win in a presidential race in North Dakota is, consider this:

Democratic presidential candidates have carried North Dakota only three times since 1916. Each Democratic victory was decisive, and two came during the Great Depression.

Dreams of Bill Ayers

Based on a newly written and irrefutable piece in the latest American Thinker, it is now proven beyond any reasonable doubt, that Senator Obama did not write his own memoir, Dreams From My Father. In fact, Jack Cashill's groundbreaking work conclusively proves that unrepentant terrorist William Ayers wrote Obama's memoir.

Because of this wonderful and timely work of Pulitzer-like journalism, where Cashill cites his own book's bad writing as proof that Obama could not write a better book than he, it is now up to the readers of this blog to figure out who wrote The Audacity of Hope. (Or we could just ask Obama during the next debate ... assuming the commission on debates use the same rules as they do in Indiana's Ninth District).

Just so anyone doesn't get the wrong idea, and think that possibly Mr. Cashill, author of a book that bashes liberal thought, has some hidden agenda, let's understand that he is actually the author of a "real" book. Furthermore, just because his book is ranked behind these classics (This one, this one, and this one) on the Amazon.com bestseller list, doesn't mean that he might be upset that Obama is a better selling author than he is.

So with that settled, I would like to invite our readers to help us decide who wrote The Audacity of Hope.

Online Surveys & Market Research

Flow Rider

As I posted back in August, Florida could be a nail in McCain's coffin. It is inconceivable that he can get to 270 electoral votes, after disavowing Michigan, without Florida.

But, for the first time this year, based on five consecutive polls showing McCain behind, we have Florida tipping to Obama. Not only is McCain behind in Florida, but the average of the polls taken just in October, shows Obama up by 5 points ... well beyond most margins of error. The one concern is obviously that many snowbirds, who reside in NY or NJ in the summer months, are just now coming back to Florida for the fall. They are likely seniors, a key McCain bloc, and up to this point, are likley undersampled. Whether they make up 5 percent is doubtful, but should this race tighten any more, they could be a factor.

Note: RCP avg. has Obama +7.7 ... if that holds, which we do not believe it will, this map will continue to get bluer.

Class.

I don't care what anyone says, and I just wanted to post it here really quickly ... it took a lot of courage and a lot of heart to do what McCain did today. Today, he was a class act. Let there be no doubt. Sometimes it is easy to fall into the trap of hating on the opposing candidate, but it took a lot of guts to stand up to the masses in the way that the Senator from Arizona did.

Vote for Osama!

The Rensselaer County (New York) official absentee ballot for 2008:

I'm just wondering how many voters of Rensselaer County - just outside of Albany - are going to vote for Osama for President. Maybe this is a "terrorist test" to see where the 'sleeper cells' are in the central part of the state. I just feel bad for that Joe Biden guy who's running for Vice President on the same ticket as a guy named Osama.

Full story here. It sounds like it was a "typo" and a "mistake."

your turn

To our faithful readers, I wanted to give you a chance to "get involved."

First off, in case you didn't know, we're in an economic "crisis" The "Down Jones"has lost over 2,000 points since just a few days ago.

The only real winners, as I pointed out in my last post, might be the stock brokers who are able to pull off the best "distressed" look, and thus get their worried faces pasted all over the internet. I ask again, why should I care what these guys look like? How does seeing someone's emotional reaction to this help me to make more out of this story? How does it add any useful perspective to America's (and the world's) economic future? Of course, it doesn't.

So, since the pictures don't add anything to the story, I want to give you a chance to add a story to some of the best pictures I've seen over the last two days. All of these pictures are current (to the best of my knowledge) and have been taken directly from cnn.com, bbc.com, nyt.com, or reuters.com. Actually, Reuters had a slide show yesterday that simply showed 12 different stock-traders in various states of agony. I laughed. Several of those lucky men are featured here.

Your mission is to create the best possible captions for each of the pictures listed below. (See my post if you need an idea about what I'm talking about). Send your submissions to whistletipsgowoo@gmail.com by Tuesday, October 14. Winners will be announced shortly thereafter.



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Fun 'N Games (Part II)

There was some confusion about the reason behind my post yesterday. So, I'll elaborate. On DailyKos there have been a series of "Candidates As" creations, which analogize each candidate to an item or person in another category. So, there is 'Candidates As Simpsons Characters:'

'Candidates As Planes:'
'Candidates as Telecoms:'

And, my personal favorite, 'Candidates as Trains:'

So, yesterday morning, I created my own 'Candidates As Cups:'

Halo players ... beware!

I know we probably focus too much on national races, so I wanted to take some time to focus on a local race: Maricopa County District 1 Supervisor. I am sure, unlike me, you have no idea who the candidates for this very important office are. So I have decided to link you to a flyer comparing the candidates for the office.

Now, I am not sure if there is any polling on this one, but my guess is that incumbent Fulton Brock is ahead. That being true, it is despicable that he attacks the competition, Ed Hermes, by noting that Hermes is a:

"Skilled player of popular video game Halo. Hermes was quoted in the ASU student newspaper as saying: 'I am addicted to Halo and play almost every night.'"

Let this be a lesson to all of you "skilled players of Halo" ... it can and will be used against you should you ever try to run for public office.

My advice? Put down the Wii controller and go play some golf. That's a much more healthy activity, and it will surely make you a more acceptable political candidate.

[UPDATE: Just tracked down Mr. Hermes blog, and it appears that he does not in fact live with his parents. You can read the rest of it here.]

Fun 'N Games