St. Louis Smack Down?

With polls showing Obama widening his lead as we enter the top of the stretch, and threatening to turn this race into a runaway, all eyes tonight turn to Saint Lou-eh. The "gateway to the west" has fallen on tough times, it seems. The city, which used to be home to Super Bowl Bling, the King, and Midwest Swing, hopes to put on a show for America and recapture some of its midwest swagger. A poll released yesterday that shows Obama leading in the Show Me State should add intrigue an interest to a debate that already has plenty of it.

Sarah Palin's performance on the CBS evening news series with Katie "Tim Russert" Couric, has been earth-shattering for all of the wrong reasons. But, with two days of Debate Boot Camp at Papa McCain's ranch in Arizona, Sarah could be rearing to go. The advance scouts are claiming that Pailin will come out swinging at Biden and more importantly, at Obama. She's at her best when she's talking about social issues and Obama's record as America's "Most Liberal Senator." It's not going to take much for Palin to exceed expectations, and if she can stick to the basic talking points, she could "win" the debate even if she is worse than Dan Quayle.

I expect her to do well. Sure, she's not going to be 'better' than Biden. And of course she's going to stick mostly to rehearsed one-liners and fall back phrases such as "These great Unites States of America," and "If I'm so blessed as to be elected Vice-President." But, as Palin pointed out so eloquently earlier this week, Biden has been giving specches since she was in second grade, so he's expected to dominate her in this type of head-to-head forum. Furthremore, baring a complete gaffe, the news will be that she DIDN'T make a gaffe, which again means that she will have exceeded expectations.

I don't forsee a smackdown, but I also don't see how tonight's debate will turn the tide for the McCain campaign. Palin's favorability rankings are tanking, especially among moderate women. Sure she can fire up the base, but she's already done that. She does little to pick voters from the middle, while Obama seems to be grabbing these voters by the handful these days. If Biden stays on message tonight, the sheer fact that it's Sarah Palin he's debating -- and not say, an econmic expert such as Mitt Romney -- the debate will be a net win for Team Obama.